
Karol Nawrocki, Poland's new president has a shadowy past
Photograph: Getty Images
I N 2018 TADEUSZ BATYR , a previously unknown author, published a book about the life of a notorious gang boss in communist Poland. 'His biography is a ready script for an action film,' wrote Mr Batyr. Appearing in disguise in a televised interview, he praised Karol Nawrocki, a historian, for having inspired him to write the book.
The liberal and conservative candidates offered very different visions
Ukraine's high-risk strikes damage over 40 top-secret strategic bombers
From chips to satellites Euro-champions are back. Expect turbulence.
Young people are fed up with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Negotiating with two superpowers is hard
A secular country returns to the church

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BreakingNews.ie
4 hours ago
- BreakingNews.ie
ECB cuts interest rates as EU likely to counter US tariffs
The European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected on Thursday and kept all options on the table for its next meetings even as the case grows for a summer pause in its year-long easing cycle. The ECB has now lowered borrowing costs eight times, or by 2 percentage points since last June, seeking to prop up a euro zone economy that was struggling even before erratic US economic and trade policies dealt it further blows. Advertisement With inflation now safely in line with its 2 per cent target and the cut well-flagged, the focus has shifted to the ECB's message about the path ahead, especially since at 2 per cent, rates are now in the "neutral" range where they neither stimulate nor slow growth. The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro offered few hints in its statement, however, sticking to its mantra that decisions would be taken meeting-by-meeting and based on incoming data. "The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path," the ECB said. "Interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission." ECB President Christine Lagarde's 1245 GMT news conference may offer more clues about the months ahead, with the bank's most aggressive easing cycle since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis expected to start winding down. Advertisement Investors are already pricing in a pause in July, and some conservative policymakers have advocated a break to give the ECB a chance to reassess how exceptional uncertainty and policy upheaval both at home and abroad will shift the outlook. While ECB board member and chief hawk Isabel Schnabel has made explicit calls for a pause, others have been more cautious and Lagarde is likely to stick to language that leaves the ECB's options open, as the outlook is prone to sudden changes. The case for a pause rests on the premise that the short- and medium-term prospects for the currency bloc differ greatly and may require different policy responses. Inflation could dip in the short term - possibly even below the ECB's target - but increased government spending and higher trade barriers may add to price pressures later. Advertisement The added complication is that monetary policy impacts the economy with a 12-to-18 month lag, so support approved now could be giving help to a bloc that no longer needs it. Investors still see at least one more rate cut later this year, however, and a small chance of another move later on, especially if US. President Donald Trump's trade war intensifies Acknowledging near-term weakness, the ECB cut its inflation projection for next year. Trump's tariffs are already damaging activity and will have a lasting impact even if an amicable resolution is found, given the hit to confidence and investment. Advertisement "A further escalation of trade tensions over the coming months would result in growth and inflation being below the baseline projections," the ECB said. "By contrast, if trade tensions were resolved with a benign outcome, growth and, to a lesser extent, inflation would be higher than in the baseline projections." This sluggish growth, along with lower energy costs and a strong euro, will curb price pressures. Indeed, most economists think inflation could fall below the ECB's 2 per cent target next year, triggering memories of the pre-pandemic decade when price growth persistently undershot 2 per cent, even if projections show it back at target in 2027. Further ahead, the outlook changes significantly. The European Union is likely to retaliate against any permanent US tariffs, raising the cost of international trade. Firms could meanwhile relocate some activity to avoid trade barriers but changes to corporate value chains are also likely to raise costs. Higher European defence spending, particularly by Germany, and the cost of the green transition could add to inflation while a shrinking workforce due to an ageing population will keep wage pressures elevated.


New Statesman
21 hours ago
- New Statesman
I am once again woken up by the unpleasant buzzing of Russian drones
Photo by Sergey Bobok / AFP via Getty Images W hen I am staying at our house in the country, the feel of each day depends on the first sound I hear – the sound that wakes me up. Two turtle doves are nesting in our garden and the most beautiful thing is to wake up to their gentle call. Sometimes other birds beat the doves and it is their songs which greet my ears as I open my eyes. They also reassure me that the new day will be calm, not dangerous. Too often, however, the morning begins with other sounds. Two days ago I woke up at 3am and listened. I always follow the same procedure when I find myself awake in the middle of the night. First, I check the time, then look on the internet to see what is happening in the sky above Ukraine. Each night sees an invasion of Russian drones and I was not surprised to learn that five minutes prior one had flown over our house, moving in the direction of Korostyshiv, a town located 30km from our village. That night, Russia launched more than 400 drones at Ukraine. They all fell somewhere – either hitting their target or tumbling out of the sky having been shot down by air-defence systems. But as the one that woke me up flew on towards Korostyshiv, I fell asleep again. After all, it was still dark outside and the birds in my garden were silent. I was woken up again by another drone at around 7am. I heard the familiar, unpleasant buzzing of an engine in the sky and I went out into the yard. The drone had already flown on. I could not see it, but the noise of its engine was still audible. Twenty minutes later I took a cup of coffee out into the yard and heard and saw the next one flying over our village school towards the nearest town. Strangely, visual contact with it calmed me. I saw it, but it did not see me. At that moment it was not moving towards me but flying away. The anti-tyranny playbook On Friday I went to Kyiv's largest literary festival, Book Arsenal. Security guards carefully checked the contents of bags and made everyone walk through metal detectors. No one was indignant. It's wartime. Every now and then, in cities far from the front line, grenades explode – often thoughtlessly brought home by soldiers on leave. Later it became clear that the thorough security check at the festival entrance was prompted by the visit of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his wife. Surrounded by numerous security guards, they walked around the publishers' stands and picked up the book To Kill a Tyrant by the Italian writer and lawyer Aldo Andrea Cassi, which had just been released in Ukrainian. Publisher Anetta Antonenko, an old friend of mine, experienced one of the best moments of her professional life. No, I'm not talking about meeting Zelensky – his purchasing the book instantly turned it into a festival bestseller, and Antonenko twice had to order urgent deliveries of additional copies from the warehouse. The next day, the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, attended Book Arsenal. In his comments to journalists he said he bought 50 books, but did not mention any titles so that his visit did not affect the commercial success of the Ukrainian publishers present. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe The hive mind On Sunday, I read the news about the operation against Russian strategic aviation in which Ukraine secretly planted a swarm of drones in Russia before unleashing them in a surprise attack on airfields across the country. I could not help thinking that beekeepers must have had something to do with the development of this plan! The comings and goings involved reminded me of how beekeepers move their hives, seeking territories for them to collect pollen that are remote from civilisation. Darkest before dawn This year, Ukrainian school graduates were again unable to experience the most romantic part of the traditional graduation celebration: greeting the dawn. Before the war, having received their school leaving certificates, graduates would dance a farewell waltz with their classmates and enjoy raucous parties until the small hours. They would then walk around their cities and towns waiting for daybreak, which they would greet at a location chosen for its beauty. This 'graduation dawn' witnessed in the company of classmates was the starting point of a new, already adult and independent life. Dawn at the end of May begins around 4am, but curfew is lifted only at five. So, for the fourth year running, there is no dawn for Ukrainian graduates. Alas. 'The Stolen Heart' by Andrey Kurkov is out now (Quercus) [See also: It's the nuance, stupid] Related This article appears in the 04 Jun 2025 issue of the New Statesman, The Housing Trap


Telegraph
21 hours ago
- Telegraph
Bulgaria shows even citizens of small nations reject the euro
Bulgaria is slated to be the newest member of the Eurozone. The European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB) released statements today that effectively confirmed Bulgaria's adoption of the euro on January 1 2026. Bulgaria's entry extends the currency bloc from 20 to 21 members and builds on the nation's 2007 decision to abandon the lev as its official currency; the year it joined the EU. Bulgaria's adoption of the euro reflects its ability to overcome problematic economic indicators. Bulgaria was initially expected to become a Eurozone member in 2024, but its 9.5 per cent inflation rate scuppered these aspirations. Bulgaria's harmonisation with ECB policies is expected to lower its inflation rate to 1.8 per cent by 2026 and ensure its alignment with the EU's price stability criteria. Bulgaria's debt-to-GDP ratio has declined since 1998 and stands at just 24.1 per cent. While Bulgaria's ability to transcend demographic decline and political dysfunction to meet the EU's criteria appears inspiring, there is a darker side to the story. Bulgaria's adoption of the euro overrules public opinion and underscores the sovereignty concerns that the EU's smaller member states have about the bloc's supranational authority. Despite projections of a 5.8 per cent increase in Bulgaria's exports after it joins the euro, opposition to the common currency is fierce. A recent Eurobarometer survey revealed that 50 per cent of Bulgarians reject the euro and only 43 per cent are in favour of it. Bulgarian pensioners fear that pricing goods in euros will erode their life savings and their younger counterparts share their concerns about a loss of independence. Incoming Polish president Karol Nawrocki's sovereignty-based opposition to swapping the zloty for the euro resonates strongly in Bulgaria. The disconnect between elite decision-making and public opinion on the euro has threatened political cohesion by galvanising pro-Russian populist movements. Varazhdane Party leader Kostadin Kostadinov, who recently signed a cooperation agreement with president Vladimir Putin's United Russia Party, has capitalised on anti-euro sentiments and rallied thousands of like-minded Bulgarians on the streets of Sofia. As Bulgaria has had seven parliamentary elections since 2021 and lacks the ability to form a durably stable government, this dispute has serious destabilising potential. The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the potential for anti-vaccination disinformation to spread widely in Bulgaria and the euro's adoption over the public's will could further erode trust. While EU officials celebrate Bulgaria's milestone acceptance of a common currency, the mood in Sofia is much more sombre and apprehensive. This is yet another reminder of the growing discontent between Brussels and the European street.