Trump Wants to Destroy the Drug Cartels. He May Strengthen Them Instead.

Politico

a day ago

Trump has accused Mexican politicians of being corrupt and 'petrified' of the cartels. It's hard to find anyone serious here who denies these accusations completely. But, setting aside Trump's own alleged corruption, his administration also is actively demolishing tools used to fight such malfeasance globally. That includes dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development and weakening enforcement of anti-corruption laws aimed at companies abroad.
While cartels exercise significant control over many parts of Mexico, there are few open displays of their power in the heavily policed megapolis of Mexico City. Still, there are billboards warning that fentanyl kills, and the occasional restaurant with a narco-gangster theme. Some neighborhoods are plastered with photos of Mexicans who have disappeared, possibly due to decades-long cartel violence.
Many here who follow the U.S.-Mexico security relationship dismiss Trump's moves against the cartels as performative and aimed at U.S. voters.
'It doesn't matter if it's going to work. It matters if it seems, for his audience, that it's going to work,' a former Mexican security official opined over a cappuccino. He then thought for a moment and added: 'Perhaps he thinks it's going to work. That's even more problematic.'
I granted him and several others I spoke to anonymity because the topic was sensitive and physically risky.
Unlike traditional terrorist groups, the cartels are not ideological. Their goal is to make money, and they long ago diversified their portfolios beyond drugs into everything from human trafficking to fuel theft. They also have expanded deep into legal markets.
Many Mexican firms, such as those attending the Chamber sessions, are now ramping up spending on lawyers, security consultants and people who specialize in vetting supply chains and clients — all so they can at least say they tried to steer clear of the cartels.
The Trump crackdown recognizes cartels' financial motive. He has sanctioned several actors, from Mexican banks to a Mexican rapper on allegations of laundering cartel money. Yet on this front, too, Trump sends mixed signals. He has weakened some rules around cryptocurrency, a method of finance cartels are believed to be using more.
Then, of course, there's the gun factor. The U.S. government's own studies have found that a huge portion of the firearms used in cartel-related violence in Mexico originate from the United States. Trump and his aides are nonetheless trying to weaken gun laws. (Mexico has suggested U.S. gun manufacturers should face charges of aiding terrorists.)
None of this is to say that the cartels aren't feeling pressure.
The U.S. and Mexican clampdowns — whether increased border patrols, drone surveillance or Mexican troops battling it out in Sinaloa — have led to many arrests. They may have exacerbated cartel infighting, much of which is linked to some remarkable U.S. detentions of cartel leaders that predate Trump. Reports abound of the cartels being short on money.