Friday briefing: Has the recognition of a Palestinian state ​gather​ed ​an unstoppable ​pace​?

The Guardian

19 hours ago

Good morning. It started in the Caribbean: Barbados and Jamaica recognised a Palestinian state in April 2024. Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas followed weeks later, meaning that all Caribbean Community states had recognised Palestine. At the end of May 2024, Ireland, Spain and Norway formally recognised Palestine.
Then it spread. Last month, France became the first G7 country to announce it would follow suit, pledging recognition this September. Malta, the UK and Canada have signalled they could do the same, though London and Ottawa attached conditions. Other countries, including Andorra, Australia, Finland, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Portugal and San Marino, have signed a declaration that indicates they may be next.
The shrinking number of countries refusing to recognise Palestine has played a significant role in this surge. It's a club few now want to be part of. So too has a landmark ruling from last year's International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel. Not the case examining whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, which will take years to conclude, but the one on the legality of Israel's nearly six-decade-long occupation of the Palestinian territories.
To understand how this ruling has galvanised recognition as well as growing calls for boycotts and sanctions against Israel, I spoke to Haroon Siddique, the Guardian's legal affairs correspondent. That's after the headlines.
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Hold your breath, but we'll need to start with a little history lesson – specifically the events of 1967. After the six-day war between Israel and four Arab states, Israeli forces took control of East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, as well as the Golan Heights and Sinai, in a series of rapid military advances. This reshaped the balance of power in the region.
The war later opened the door to peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, but it also marked the start of a decades-long occupation of what the international community recognises as the Palestinian territories: East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. With the peace process long stalled and illegal settlements in those areas continuing to expand, the situation has hardened into a brutal, prolonged and unresolved impasse.
Mainstream Israeli politics includes voices asserting that Israel has a rightful claim to all the occupied territories, and harder-line positions calling for the expulsion of Palestinians have also influenced government policy in recent years, as Benjamin Netanyahu moved further right to retain control of his coalition.
In 2022, the Palestinian delegation at the UN asked the general assembly to seek an advisory opinion from the ICJ on whether Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories complied with international law, the legality of the settlements, and how other states should respond. The request passed with majority support, Haroon told me.
'The judgment that followed was historic because of how unequivocal and wide-ranging it was.'
The question of apartheid
This time last year, the ICJ ordered Israel to immediately end its occupation of the Palestinian territories and pay full reparations to Palestinians. The advisory opinion concluded that Israel had violated international law in several ways, including denying Palestinians their inalienable right to self determination and inflicting policies that amounted to apartheid.
Perhaps most importantly, the court advised that other states are obliged not to recognise the occupation as lawful and not to aid or assist it.
'It also said Israel needed to make full reparations for wrongful acts and essentially concluded that what Israel was doing violated international law,' Haroon said.
'Some people interpreted the judgment as saying there was apartheid, and to me it seemed explicit. They said settlers and Palestinians are treated differently and that's enshrined in Israeli law and other measures. There is almost complete separation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem between Israeli settlers and Palestinian communities,' Haroon said, explaining that the court said Israel was in breach of article 3 of the international convention on the elimination of all forms of racial discrimination (CERD), which condemns racial segregation and apartheid.
The court found multiple breaches of international law, including forcible evictions, widespread demolitions, settlement expansion, failure to curb settler violence, restrictions on water access, exploitation of resources, and the extension of Israeli law to the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
A clear message to other states
There was also a lot in the court's opinion about other states' relations to Israel, Haroon said. 'The court said other states shouldn't render aid or assistance that entrenches the occupation. For example, they shouldn't do trade or economic activity with settlements.'
How did the UK respond? During the hearings, the Conservative government argued that the ICJ should not issue an advisory opinion at all. Now, under Labour, the position is even less clear.
'Last year, the Labour government simply said, 'We'll take this in and get back to you,' but they haven't issued any substantial response since. This has caused concern and anger among groups advocating for Palestinians. The only comment the UK government has made is that they don't disagree with the central findings of the advisory opinion. That's vague: it doesn't say what they're doing about it,' Haroon said.
He notes that Britain, for instance, does not ban the import of goods produced in Israeli settlements. 'Earlier this year, a group of 62 MPs and peers wrote to the trade secretary saying they should ban those imports, citing the ICJ judgment, but nothing's happened.'
Last month, Caabu (the Council for Arab-British Understanding) sent a letter signed by 112 parliamentarians demanding that the UK government publish a response to the ICJ ruling. A separate letter followed from 16 civil society organisations, 'The government said it's a complex ruling, but a year on, it feels like foot-dragging, and it makes people think it's political,' Haroon said.
Others have mobilised into action. In April, Ireland unveiled a bill to ban imports from the occupied Palestinian territories in the first move by an EU member to curtail trade in goods produced in Israeli settlements illegal under international law. Ireland based the legality of its move on the ICJ ruling.
Israel's response
For its part, Israel didn't participate in the case (though it's worth noting they did participate in the genocide case against them).
'Israel later called the opinion 'fundamentally wrong and one-sided,' saying it was trying to push a political settlement on them, but that settlements could only be reached by negotiations,' said Haroon. 'They also submitted a written argument, saying the questions put to the court were prejudiced and failed to recognise Israel's rights and duty to protect its citizens or its security concerns.'
The 'Montevideo Convention'
So how does the ICJ case relate to recognition of a Palestinian state?
'The court said that the violations, such as the occupation and the settlements, were preventing the Palestinian people's right to self-determination. They said Israel abused its position as an occupying power,' Haroon said. 'I would say the recent French recognition of a Palestinian state is very much in keeping with what this judgment was saying, because it was about ending the occupation. The court said Israel should withdraw immediately. Anything that pushes towards a Palestinian state, including recognition, is consistent with the ruling.'
The UK announcement of recognising a Palestinian state has been met with furious pushback. Those against recognition now warn that it goes against International law. They note that under the Montevideo Convention, a state must have a permanent population, defined territory, government, and the capacity to engage with other states. The peers argue that Palestine may not meet these criteria. The UK government have dismissed this argument.
It is worth noting that some advocates for Palestinian rights also criticise recognition. Hussein Agha and Robert Malley argued in a forceful opinion piece that it amounts to little more than a symbolic gesture and will not halt the deaths and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza caused by Israel's siege and war.
Either way, what happens at the UN general assembly this September in relation to the two‑state solution will be written into the history books.
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