The Iran-Israel conflict is about more than just missiles. This is how Canada should respond
For over a week now, rockets have crossed the skies between Tel Aviv and Tehran after Israel launched an attack on Iran last Friday. But though the focus has understandably been on the conflict between the two nations, an overlooked contest is occurring inside Iran, where weary Iranians weigh whether to support a battered regime or consign it to history. That internal reckoning, not the missile count, should anchor Canada's reading of the crisis and its response.
Since its inception the Islamic Republic has been on shaky ground, with the country now living in the legacy of an unfinished revolution that promised democracy but settled on theocracy. On the eve of the Israeli strike, Tehran was already staggering under decades of sanctions, the wreckage of COVID-19 mismanagement, and the aftershocks of the 2022 'Woman, Life, Freedom' uprising. Inflation hovers around 50 per cent, poverty and crime are rising, social fault lines are widening, and entire provinces endure rolling blackouts in the summer months. When foreign fire lands, the leadership thus reaches for a worn script: wrapping itself in the flag more tightly, invoking the glory of the Persian Empire, recalling the Iran-Iraq War and promising righteousness and revenge.
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National Post
30 minutes ago
- National Post
Nazanin Afshin-Jam MacKay: Iranians must be ready for the day after the Islamic Republic falls
In the span of just a few days, the ground has shifted beneath the feet of over 90 million Iranians. The sky above roars with the sound of warplanes, sirens, and explosions. Roads are jammed with families fleeing Tehran. Shelters are improvised in metro stations and mosques. The heavy-handed and repressive regime is suddenly exposed, wounded by foreign airstrikes, panicked at the top, and fraying at the edges. And the Iranian people, long silenced, find themselves standing at a rare and dangerous crossroads. Article content Article content This moment is not about Donald Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu. It is not about the geopolitical ambitions of foreign powers. It is about the people of Iran, the same people who have endured 46 years of fear, oppression, economic despair, and stolen futures under the Islamic Republic. It is about the mothers mourning their children, indiscriminately shot at or left on death row; the dissidents in prison cells; the young women who dared to walk unveiled; and the workers who braved bullets to demand bread and dignity. They are the ones that everyone has forgotten to consult. Article content Article content Article content Iranians continue to struggle and suffer. Even with the Israel Defense Forces' precision targeting, there has been collateral damage. Over 200 civilians have already lost their lives in the past few days due to Israel's strikes. Bombs do not always distinguish between soldiers and the civilians, between regime assets and innocent children. If nuclear facilities, such as the deeply buried Fordo plant, are targeted, radioactive fallout could spread through the air, soil, and water, posing serious risks to civilian populations. Article content Article content Iranians who have fled Tehran to the north, trying to comply with Trump's alarming evacuation orders, now find themselves without enough fuel, food, or medicine. Article content Article content And yet, we must also speak with clarity: history may not offer a second chance like this where the regime is at its most vulnerable. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), designated as a terrorist organization by Canada, has had its top leadership eliminated and its command structure severely fractured. Article content The regime's response to this conflict has been revealing. While bombs fall and buildings burn, instead of concentrating on security and people's basic needs, its priority remains unchanged: suppress dissent, arrest women for defying the hijab and silence journalists, and punish activists. The internet has been shut down and a new bill was just passed in parliament calling for anyone cooperating with Israel to be immediately sentenced to death. Even now, they are more afraid of their own people than of foreign powers. That fear is telling. And it is justified.
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Displaced Syrians who have returned home face a fragile future, says UN refugees chief
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said Friday that more than two million Syrian refugees and internally displaced people have returned home since the fall of the government of Bashar Assad in December. Speaking during a visit to Damascus that coincided with World Refugee Day, Grandi described the situation in Syria as 'fragile and hopeful' and warned that the returnees may not remain if Syria does not get more international assistance to rebuild its war-battered infrastructure. 'How can we make sure that the return of the Syrian displaced or refugees is sustainable, that people don't move again because they don't have a house or they don't have a job or they don't have electricity?' Grandi asked a small group of journalists after the visit, during which he met with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and spoke with returning refugees. 'What is needed for people to return, electricity but also schools, also health centers, also safety and security,' he said. Syria's near 14-year civil war, which ended last December with the ouster of former President Bashar Assad in a lightning rebel offensive, killed nearly half a million people and displaced half the country's pre-war population of of 23 million. Grandi said that 600,000 Syrians have returned to the country since Assad's fall, and about another 1.5 million internally displaced people returned to their homes in the same period. However, there is little aid available for the returnees, with multiple crises in the region — including the new Israel-Iran war — and shrinking support from donors. The UNHCR has reduced programs for Syrian refugees in neighboring countries, including healthcare, education and cash support for hundreds of thousands in Lebanon. 'The United States suspended all foreign assistance, and we were very much impacted, like others, and also other donors in Europe are reducing foreign assistance,' Grandi said, adding: 'I tell the Europeans in particular, be careful. Remember 2015, 2016 when they cut food assistance to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan, the Syrians moved toward Europe.' Some have also fled for security reasons since Assad's fall. While the situation has stabilized since then, particularly in Damascus, the new government has struggled to extend its control over all areas of the country and to bring a patchwork of former insurgent groups together into a national army. There have also been outbreaks of violence, notably in March, when hundreds of civilians, most of them from the Alawite minority to which Assad belongs, were killed in revenge attacks after clashes broke out between pro-Assad armed groups and government security forces on the Syrian coast. Some 40,000 new refugees fled to Lebanon following that violence. Grandi said the UNHCR has been in talks with the Lebanese government, which halted official registration of new refugees in 2015, to register the new refugees and 'provide them with basic assistance.' 'This is a complex community, of course, for whom the chances of return are not so strong right now,' he said. He said he had urged the Syrian authorities to make sure that measures taken in response to the attacks on civilians 'are very strong and to prevent further episodes of violence.' The Israel-Iran war has thrown further fuel on the flames in a region already dealing with multiple crises. Grandi noted that Iran is hosting millions of refugees from Afghanistan who may now be displaced again. The U.N. does not yet have a sense of how many people have fled the conflict between Iran and Israel, he said. 'We know that some Iranians have gone to neighboring countries, like Azerbaijan or Armenia, but we have very little information. No country has asked for help yet,' he said. 'And we have very little sense of the internal displacement, because my colleagues who are in Iran – they're working out of bunkers because of the bombs.' —— Associated Press staff writer Abby Sewell in Beirut contributed to this report.
Globe and Mail
2 hours ago
- Globe and Mail
Investors could see stock market selloff if U.S. attacks Iran
Financial markets may be in for a 'knee-jerk' selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by President Donald Trump's tariffs. Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as investors weighed the chance of supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and potential direct U.S. involvement. The price of crude remains up almost 9% since Israel launched attacks against Iran last Friday in a bid to cripple its ability to produce nuclear weapons. With major U.S. stock indexes trading near record highs despite uncertainty about Trump's trade policy, some investors worry that equities may be particularly vulnerable to sources of additional global uncertainty. Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said U.S. stocks might initially sell off should Trump order the U.S. military to become more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but that a faster escalation might also bring the situation to an end sooner. 'I could see the initial knee-jerk would be, 'this is bad',' Carlson said. 'I think it will bring things to a head quicker.' Wednesday's dip in crude, along with a modest 0.3% increase in the S&P 500, came after Trump declined to answer reporters' questions about whether the U.S. was planning to strike Iran but said Iran had proposed to come for talks at the White House. Adding to uncertainty, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump's demand for unconditional surrender. U.S. Treasury yields fell as concerns over the war in Iran boosted safe haven demand for the debt. The U.S. military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, further stirring speculation about U.S. intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure. With investors viewing the dollar as a safe haven, it has gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc. 'I don't think personally that we are going to join this war. I think Trump is going to do everything possible to avoid it. But if it can't be avoided, then initially that's going to be negative for the markets,' said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. 'Gold would shoot up. Yields would probably come down lower and the dollar would probably rally.' Barclays warned that crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports are reduced by half, and that prices could rise about $100 in the 'worst case' scenario of a wider conflagration. Brent crude was last at about $76. Citigroup economists warned in a note on Wednesday that materially higher oil prices 'would be a negative supply shock for the global economy, lowering growth and boosting inflation—crea–ing further challenges for central banks that are already trying to navigate the risks from tariffs." Tr'mp taking a 'heavier hand' would not be a surprise to the market, mitigating any negative asset price reaction, Carlson said, while adding that he was still not convinced that the U.S. would take a heavier role. Trades on the Polymarket betting website point to a 63% expectation of 'U.S. military action against Iran before July,' down from as much as an 82% likelihood on Tuesday, but still above a 35% chance before the conflict began last Friday. The S&P 500 energy sector index has rallied over 2% in the past four sessions, lifted by a 3.8% gain in Exxon Mobil and 5% rally in Valero Energy. That compares to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 over the same period, reflecting investor concerns about the impact of higher oil prices on the economy, and about growing global uncertainty generated by the conflict. Turmoil in the Middle East comes as investors are already fretting about the effect of Trump's tariffs on the global economy. The World Bank last week slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a 'significant headwind' for nearly all economies. Defense stocks, already lifted by Russia's conflict with Ukraine, have made modest gains since Israel launched its attacks. The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense index hit record highs early last week in the culmination of a rebound of over 30% from losses in the wake of Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements. Even after the latest geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 remains just 2% below its February record high close. 'Investors want to be able to look past this, and until we see reasons to believe that this is going to be a much larger regional conflict with the U.S. perhaps getting involved and a high chance of escalating, you're going to see the market want to shrug this off as much as it can,' Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, said at an investor conference on Wednesday.
