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Beyond 50°C: How decades of conflict are heating Iraq
Beyond 50°C: How decades of conflict are heating Iraq

Shafaq News

time2 days ago

  • Climate
  • Shafaq News

Beyond 50°C: How decades of conflict are heating Iraq

Shafaq News Iraq is entering an era of dangerous heat extremes, with summer temperatures regularly soaring beyond 50°C. While global climate change is a major factor, experts increasingly point to the environmental legacy of decades of war as a critical driver of this crisis. Armed conflict has left behind scorched landscapes, toxic emissions, and destroyed ecosystems. From the Iran-Iraq War to the Gulf conflicts and the fight against ISIS, each wave of violence has released massive quantities of greenhouse gases, degraded natural cooling systems, and dismantled vital infrastructure. These war-driven changes have reshaped Iraq's environment, making it more vulnerable to extreme heat, drought, and accelerating desertification. War as a Driving Force Radiation and pollution expert Iqbal Latif explained to Shafaq News that the use of depleted uranium in military munitions has triggered acute climatic disturbances. 'The detonation of these munitions generates heat as high as 10,000°C, forming dense clouds that block sunlight,' she noted. 'When these clouds mix with carbon and sulfur oxides, the resulting gases rise to the upper atmosphere, trapping heat and intensifying long-term global warming.' Referencing data from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Latif pointed out that US military operations have accounted for approximately 5.8% of global emissions at their peak, contributing an estimated 60 million tons of carbon annually—further accelerating atmospheric warming and ozone depletion. She noted that since 1991, Iraq has witnessed abnormal temperature rises. In provinces such as Basra, Dhi Qar, and Muthanna, residents began using air conditioning for the first time, after having previously lived in relatively temperate climates. Earlier this year, Deputy Minister of Environment Jassim al-Falahi revealed that Iraq's temperatures have risen by 4–5°C above historical averages over the past 50 years—well above the global average increase over the same period. Supporting this observation, data from the World Resources Institute shows that the destruction of infrastructure during conflict—particularly oil wells and refineries—has become a measurable contributor to Iraq's emissions. Post-conflict air quality monitoring in areas such as Qayyarah and Al-Baiji has detected long-term traces of hydrocarbons, heavy metals, and lingering thermal radiation zones. Fires of War The widespread combustion of hydrocarbons from bombed oil wells, refineries, and storage facilities releases vast quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂), black carbon, volatile organic compounds, and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Black carbon—commonly known as soot—is particularly harmful. It absorbs solar radiation and warms the atmosphere up to a million times more effectively per particle than CO₂ over short periods. During the 1991 Gulf War, nearly 700 Kuwaiti oil wells were set alight by retreating Iraqi forces, producing an estimated 1.5 million tons of CO₂ per day at the peak of the fires. The resulting soot and aerosols drifted into southern Iraq and beyond, darkening skies, disrupting precipitation patterns, and polluting soil and water. This dense pollution layer also limited surface evaporation and photosynthesis, contributing to prolonged drying and vegetation loss in southern Iraq. More recently, during battles against ISIS, the bombing and burning of oil facilities in Mosul, Al-Baiji, and Qayyarah released additional emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). These chemicals react with atmospheric moisture to form acid rain, which degrades soil quality and reduces its ability to retain water—further intensifying drought conditions. In Nineveh and Saladdin, satellite imagery from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) documented drastic changes in soil reflectivity (albedo) after widespread fires. The now-darkened ground surfaces absorb more solar radiation, significantly raising land surface temperatures. Beyond fire damage, the loss of forests, farmlands, and marshes has stripped Iraq of crucial natural carbon sinks and exposed topsoil to erosion and moisture loss. Vegetation plays a vital role in cooling land surfaces through evapotranspiration—a process that transfers heat into the atmosphere. Its absence not only accelerates desertification, but also worsens the urban heat island effect, pushing local surface temperatures even higher. Seeds of Decay Haider Rashaad al-Rubaie, head of the Epoch for Relief and Sustainable Development organization, emphasized that wars have been a primary factor behind the degradation of Iraq's vegetation, particularly in the south. "Basra once had more than 10 million palm trees before the Iran-Iraq war,' he noted, stressing that 'Today, fewer than one million remain.' He also pointed to widespread land mines and unexploded ordnance that have driven farmers off their land, worsening desertification and contributing to rising temperatures. Military detonations and oil fires, he added, emit large amounts of carbon and greenhouse gases, which induce lasting climate shifts. 'The explosions and oil well fires release pollutants that drive global warming—one of the most significant contributors to Iraq's rising heat levels.' Meanwhile, academic environmental researcher Shukri al-Hassan offered a broader perspective, noting that heat increases cannot be attributed solely to warfare. "Multiple climate variables are involved,' he explained. 'These include atmospheric pressure, wind direction, soil composition, seasonal planetary motion, drought, and vegetation loss.' Even so, he acknowledged the extensive environmental damage caused by war. Iraq's green cover has been decimated, while vast amounts of pollutants—including radioactive uranium and toxic gases—have entered the ecosystem, compounding the effects of global warming. The rise in extreme temperatures is no longer a seasonal irregularity—it has evolved into a mounting public health emergency. Iraq has experienced higher rates of cholera, skin diseases, and heatstroke. Government authorities have repeatedly suspended official working hours during the hottest months, particularly when temperatures exceeded 50°C, underscoring the impact on public health, daily life, and the broader economy.

Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite
Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite

Hindustan Times

time6 days ago

  • Politics
  • Hindustan Times

Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite

All wars have consequences, particularly for the vanquished. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the 12-Day War—its recent conflict with Israel and the U.S.—hasn't been a soul-scorching, society-rending fight in the way of the Iran-Iraq War. From 1980-88, hundreds of thousands perished and battlefield trauma nearly cracked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the theocracy's indispensable pillar. But that conflict did offer an opportunity for Iran: The struggle led the regime to build institutions that guaranteed the revolution's survival. The 12-Day War, by contrast, has weakened the heads of those institutions substantially and looks likely to launch a new generation of leaders. That's bad news for Israel and America. Today, the regime is defined ideologically by its fight against Israel and the U.S. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his minions have tried to claim victory over the Jewish state in the 12-Day War. But whatever they say in public, the overwhelming sentiment among them is surely not pride but shame. The loss has greatly diminished the supreme leader's stature. And the consequences of defeat will catapult little-known, hard-core believers—the Revolutionary Guard officers who proved themselves against the Syrian rebellion a decade ago—into the weakened ruling elite. The headline for Israel and America: These men won't compromise on the regime's nuclear-weapon ambitions. And that's about all we know of them. During the Islamic Revolution in 1978-79, neither Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini nor many of his senior adjutants were enigmas to those who had studied Iran. They told us their goals and motivations. As those revolutionaries aged, they compiled their speeches, wrote books or allowed others to chronicle their intellectual evolution. The new crew on the cusp of power today is comparatively illiterate. These men have a thin paper trail because they see little reason to explain themselves to their countrymen or to the outside world. They are drawn from militant groups such as the Paydari Front and the second tier of the Revolutionary Guards. They look to guidance from the likes of the religiously obsessional Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who abjures compromise. They are found in the security organs, occupy seats in parliament and run their own education centers. They have created their own underground shadow government and ideological ecosystem. The supreme leader's weakened position has left these men an opening. If Mr. Khamenei had crossed the nuclear threshold and tested a weapon—as voices within the Revolutionary Guards advised him to do months ago—Iran would probably have foreclosed the possibility of foreign attacks. Now the 86-year-old cleric has to worry about dangerous discontent among battle-hardened soldiers. No matter how much the regime tries to play on Iranian nationalism, it's unlikely to recapture the citizenry, who no longer see theocrats and their enforcers as estimable expressions of their national identity or faith. To crush the countrywide Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023—the most recent of many undermining protests—the regime beat, tortured, poisoned and killed young women and girls. Such brutality permanently severs the bonds between society and state. Even Israeli and American bombing runs won't restore them. Indeed, the rising generation of the Revolutionary Guards have defined themselves by their willingness to brutalize their countrymen repeatedly. And these guardsmen have had two other core commitments: the A-bomb program and the proxy war strategy devised by their fallen hero, Qassem Soleimani, the Revolutionary Guard dark lord whom an American missile felled in Baghdad in 2020. Israel's onslaught against these proxies since Oct. 7, 2023, has badly battered, perhaps permanently crippled, Soleimani's proxy-based 'axis of resistance' against the Jewish state and the U.S. But the nuclear-weapon ambitions remain viable. Moving forward, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to construct large enrichment plants such as Natanz or rely on mountains to protect its atomic assets. U.S. and Israeli satellite and aerial reconnaissance is too good, and construction times for new underground facilities are too long. Numerous, easily concealed surface facilities are now a better bet—so long as the regime can neutralize foreign spies in Iran. The mullahs have already launched a nationwide dragnet to cleanse their government of spies. These vicious counterintelligence measures will paralyze nuclear construction for a time, but eventually could enable a clandestine nuclear program that neither Jerusalem nor Washington can stop. The Iranians and Israelis are in a deadly intelligence duel. During the Cold War, Western and Soviet intelligence services continuously went at each other, but destiny seldom hung in the balance. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction provided some comfort and maneuvering room. Israelis are less certain that the threat of mutual annihilation works with the Islamic Republic's zealots. Are there enough Iranians in the right places who will risk their lives and the lives of their loved ones to stop the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards from obtaining the ultimate weapon? Even if Israel has developed a technical capacity to penetrate Iranian official communications, it's still the most pressing question before the Mossad. A second question also looms: Can Jerusalem learn enough about the new, fiercely anti-Zionist members of the Iranian elite to frustrate or compromise them? Learning where they live, though obviously important, will be the easy part. Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

UK billionaire declares ‘Britain has gone to hell,' lists $337m London estate on sale and moves to Dubai
UK billionaire declares ‘Britain has gone to hell,' lists $337m London estate on sale and moves to Dubai

Time of India

time22-07-2025

  • Business
  • Time of India

UK billionaire declares ‘Britain has gone to hell,' lists $337m London estate on sale and moves to Dubai

The UK abolished the non-dom tax status in April, prompting a record number of billionaires, including Fredriksen, to leave/ image: Source: Jeff Gilbert/Alamy Stock Photo via Llyod's List TL;DR UK billionaire John Fredriksen is leaving Britain due to the Labour government's abolition of non-dom tax status. He's putting his £250 million Chelsea estate, The Old Rectory, up for sale. Fredriksen is relocating his business operations and residence to Dubai, UAE. His departure follows the closure of his London firm Seatankers and reflects rising billionaire exits triggered by UK tax reforms. A £13.7 Billion Departure: Why John Fredriksen Left London Behind The United Kingdom is losing millionaires and billionaires at a record pace, and now, one of its most high-profile residents has joined the exodus. J ohn Fredriksen, once the UK's ninth-richest man, has left London, shut down key business operations, and put his prized Chelsea mansion, The Old Rectory, up for sale for a staggering £250 million ($337 million). The trigger? A sweeping overhaul of Britain's tax policy targeting the global elite. In a blunt interview earlier this month with Norwegian business outlet E24 , Fredriksen did not mince words: 'Britain has gone to hell, like Norway,' he said. 'The entire Western world is on its way down.' Who Is John Fredriksen? At 81, John Fredriksen is one of the world's most influential shipping magnates. Born in Oslo and now a Cypriot national, he built his vast empire in oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Over the decades, he expanded into offshore drilling, LNG shipping, dry bulk, gas, and aquaculture. Fredriksen first left Norway in 1978 over its aggressive tax regime and settled in the UK, where he was long seen as a quiet but formidable presence in London's business circles. In 2001, he purchased The Old Rectory , a 30,000-square-foot Georgian manor in Chelsea, for £37 million. The estate, which includes 10 bedrooms, a ballroom, and two acres of private gardens, has become one of the most valuable homes in Britain. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Use an AI Writing Tool That Actually Understands Your Voice Grammarly Install Now Undo He famously turned down a £100 million offer from Roman Abramovich in 2004. According to Forbes , Fredriksen was recently ranked the 136th-richest person in the world, with an estimated net worth of $17.3 billion. Why He's Leaving: The End of the 'Non-Dom' Era Fredriksen's exit was set in motion earlier this year, when the UK's Labour government abolished the non-domicile (non-dom) tax status, a historic tax arrangement dating back to 1799. The policy had long allowed wealthy foreigners living in the UK to pay tax only on their British income, shielding offshore earnings. But in April 2025, under Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the non-dom policy was scrapped. Alongside that came other tax hikes: Higher National Insurance contributions for employers Tighter inheritance tax rules A 15% VAT on private school fees For global billionaires with complex financial footprints like Fredriksen, this marked a turning point. '[The UK is] starting to remind me more and more of Norway,' Fredriksen told E24. 'People should get up and work even more, and go to the office instead of having a home office.' Soon after, he closed the London headquarters of Seatankers Management, one of his private shipping firms. Reports in Forbes noted that more than a dozen domestic staff were let go from his Chelsea estate. The Mansion: Putting a £250 Million Landmark on the Market Fredriksen's property, The Old Rectory, is not just any home. Built in the 1720s, it once belonged to the rector of Chelsea parish church. After a full refurbishment in the 1990s, it was bought in 1995 by Greek shipping magnate Theodore Angelopoulos for £22 million. Fredriksen acquired it six years later for £37 million. Now, two decades on, it's being quietly shopped to ultra-wealthy buyers with an asking price of £250 million. If sold at that value, it would be one of the most expensive private residential sales in UK history. He's Not Alone: The Wealth Drain from the UK Fredriksen's move is not an isolated case. According to Henley & Partners, a global citizenship advisory firm: The UK lost 10,800 millionaires in 2024, a 157% rise from the year before. In 2025, it's projected to lose 16,500 millionaires, more than any other country globally. These individuals are expected to take £66 billion in investable wealth with them. According to The Telegraph, other billionaires who have already left, or are preparing to, include: Richard Gnodde , Goldman Sachs vice-chairman Lakshmi Mittal, steel magnate Ian and Richard Livingstone , property tycoons Christian Angermayer and Nassef Sawiris, owner of Aston Villa (The Telegraph, Forbes) According to the Sunday Times Rich List, Britain now has 156 billionaires, down from 165 in 2024, the sharpest drop in the list's 37-year history. Why the UAE? A New Magnet for Global Wealth Fredriksen's new base, the United Arab Emirates, is more than just a tax-friendly destination. It's now one of the world's fastest-growing wealth hubs. According to Henley & Partners: The UAE is set to receive 9,800 new millionaires in 2025, more than any country in the world. These new residents will bring in an estimated $63 billion in wealth. Over the last decade, the UAE has seen a 98% increase in its millionaire population. That growth is second only to Montenegro, whose millionaire population rose by 124%, followed by Malta (87%), the United States (87%), and China (74%). Why are so many choosing Dubai and Abu Dhabi? Zero income and capital gains taxes Stable political climate and pro-business regulation World-class infrastructure for aviation, banking, logistics, and technology Attractive Golden Visa programs and flexible residency schemes Strong networks for family offices, private equity, and shipping For billionaires like Fredriksen, Dubai offers a full-service platform to run a global enterprise with fewer political and regulatory hurdles. And socially, the city is now home to a thriving ecosystem of financiers, tech founders, luxury developers, and shipping magnates. Fredriksen, who is now spending most of his time in the UAE, is reportedly preparing to hand over greater control of his empire to his twin daughters, Cecilie and Kathrine Fredriksen, both of whom already serve on boards of several family companies. Whether this transition marks a new chapter for the Fredriksen empire or a broader rewriting of elite capital flows, one thing is clear: Dubai is rising, and London is watching. FAQs: Q. Why is John Fredriksen leaving the UK? Because of the end of non-dom tax status and new tax burdens introduced by the Labour government. Q. Where is he moving to? To Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, where he plans to oversee his global business empire. Q. What's happening to his UK property? He's selling The Old Rectory in Chelsea for £250 million, one of Britain's most expensive homes. Q. Why did he choose Dubai? Dubai offers zero income tax, investor-friendly policies, and a fast-growing hub for global wealth and business.

India participates in plenary of Australia Group on its 40th anniversary year
India participates in plenary of Australia Group on its 40th anniversary year

United News of India

time18-07-2025

  • Politics
  • United News of India

India participates in plenary of Australia Group on its 40th anniversary year

New Delhi, July 18 (UNI) India participated in the plenary of the Australia Group, a key multilateral export control regime, from July 14-18 on its 40th Anniversary year. The MEA spokesperson in a post on X said that India is an active participant of the Australia Group. 'India participated in the Australia Group Plenary from 14-18 July 2025 on its 40th Anniversary year. 'India is an active participant of the Australia Group, a key multilateral export control regime that contributes to the international non-proliferation architecture on chemical & biological weapons & related items.' The Australia Group was established in 1985 after Iraq's use of chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War. It is an important platform for international cooperation in preventing the spread of chemical and biological weapons through harmonized export controls and information sharing. The 40th anniversary plenary meeting of the Australia Group was held in Sydney, Australia. Australia is the chair and manages the secretariat for the Australia Group. India joined the group in January 2018. The group now has 43 members, including Australia, New Zealand, the European Commission, all 27 member states of the European Union, United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, India, Ukraine, and Argentina. The name comes from Australia's initiative to create the group. Australia manages the secretariat. UNI RN

After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel
After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel

Middle East Eye

time03-07-2025

  • Politics
  • Middle East Eye

After ceasefire, Iran is preparing for the long war with Israel

An uneasy US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran has ended a 12-day exchange of strikes, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring victory. It marked one of the shortest wars of the 21st century. Yet Iran, too, has claimed victory, much like it did at the end of the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, the longest conventional war of the 20th century, when then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein also declared victory. In both cases, Iran was the target of attack and framed the conflicts as "imposed wars" (jang-e tahmili), arguing that they were launched with a "green light" from the United States. Also in both cases, Iran paired its declaration of victory with a posture of strategic patience (sabr-e rahbordi) - a doctrine of restraint aimed at shifting the balance over time. After the Iran-Iraq War, it waited, letting time and circumstance play to its advantage. It was ultimately the US, not Iran, that dismantled Saddam's weapons of mass destruction during the 1991 Gulf War and later overthrew him entirely in 2003. From Tehran's perspective, the same strategic patience principle is being applied again today. The current ceasefire, while publicly welcomed, is widely seen - especially in Iran's political and military circles - as a tactical pause rather than a sustainable peace. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Strategic pause For Iran, the ceasefire with Israel serves a clear strategic purpose. In line with its long-standing approach of strategic patience, time is a resource. Iran will recalibrate its nuclear strategy, expand regional alliances, and test the limits of international resolve. During this period, Iranian planners are expected to re-examine their deterrence doctrines, potentially including asymmetric naval capabilities and cyber operations, while crafting a long-term retaliatory posture. In line with its long-standing strategy of strategic patience, Iran sees time as a resource to recalibrate its nuclear posture, expand alliances, and test global resolve Time provides Tehran with critical breathing room to: first, restructure its leadership; second, replenish its arms; and third, plan an international diplomatic offensive. In June 1981, the Islamic Republican Party was bombed, killing its secretary-general, Mohammad Beheshti and 74 high-ranking officials. That same month, Iran lost one of its most influential military commanders, Mostafa Chamran, on the front lines with Iraq. In August 1981, Iran's newly elected president, Mohammad-Ali Rajai and Prime Minister Mohammad-Javad Bahonar were assassinated in a bombing at the prime minister's office in Tehran. The attack was carried out by the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK). This armed opposition group had turned against the Islamic Republic and allied itself with Saddam's regime during the Iran-Iraq War. The bomb was planted by Masoud Keshmiri, an MEK operative who had infiltrated the government posing as a security official. The explosion killed eight high-ranking officials, including the president, prime minister, the chief of national police, senior military advisers, and members of the Supreme National Security Council, making it one of the deadliest acts of internal sabotage in the early years of the war. Nevertheless, despite the loss, Iran was still able to launch a counter-attack that expelled all Iraqi forces from Iranian soil. Rebuilding and rearming On the morning of Friday, 13 June 2025, Israel launched its most extensive military operation against Iran to date. Its strikes went far beyond nuclear and missile facilities, targeting senior military commanders and scientists. Among those assassinated were Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami, and aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, along with several nuclear scientists and military officials. Yet Iran was still able to mount missile attacks against Israel, overwhelming its vaunted anti-missile defence system. Iran can now shift its focus towards rebuilding and rearming. The war depleted Iran's short- and medium-range missile stockpiles and damaged its missile-launching infrastructure, much of which was targeted in the initial waves of Israeli and US strikes. In this new phase of calm, Iran is expected to prioritise the replenishment and modernisation of its missile arsenal, including newer classes such as the Fattah and Kheibar Shekan hypersonic missiles, while bolstering its air defences to anticipate any future surprise attacks. One of the most critical lessons Iran has drawn from this recent war is that victory in a modern conflict is not achievable without a capable and advanced air force. While Iran's reliance on missile and drone-based deterrence showcased some tactical strengths, it also exposed a critical vulnerability: such systems alone are fragile when confronted with advanced aerial and electronic warfare capabilities. To address this strategic gap, Iran is now expected to urgently pursue the acquisition of Russia's S-400 air defence systems and Su-35 fighter jets. Follow Middle East Eye's live coverage of the Israel-Palestine war Simultaneously, Chinese combat aircraft, such as the J-10 and the fifth-generation J-20, which demonstrated their capabilities in the recent India-Pakistan standoff, are being seriously considered. Beyond these platforms, Iranian military planners have acknowledged another significant deficiency: the lack of airborne early warning systems. Even the most advanced ground-based air defence becomes severely limited without Airborne Warning and Control Systems (Awacs), which are essential for real-time detection and coordination. Thus, the acquisition of Awacs aircraft from China or Russia has become an urgent priority in Tehran's defence modernisation agenda. Beyond the battlefield Iran is also laying the groundwork for a legal and diplomatic counteroffensive. Iranian officials have already announced their intention to submit a comprehensive complaint to the International Court of Justice, holding both Israel and the US responsible for initiating an undeclared war and violating Iranian sovereignty by targeting nuclear facilities protected under international law. Until this legal process reaches a stage of formal recognition and judgment, Tehran has made it clear that it will not return to the nuclear negotiation table. By allowing Israel to bomb Iran, Trump is pushing Tehran to go nuclear Read More » This pivot away from negotiations is not a sign of retreat, but a calculated manoeuvre. Meanwhile, another crucial variable remains hidden from international view: Iran's president has signed a law suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency under Director-General Rafael Grossi, citing biased oversight and political pressure. Prior to the war, and unbeknownst to most intelligence services, Tehran had reportedly transferred large quantities of enriched uranium from Fordow and Natanz to undisclosed secure locations. These reserves remain untouched by US and Israeli strikes, as no radiation was reported in Iran - indicating the stockpile was most likely undamaged. Iran could also choose not to disclose the whereabouts of these uranium stockpiles, using them as a strategic deterrence lever in future confrontations or negotiations. In light of all these factors, the current ceasefire is not a resolution - it is a chapter in a much larger, unfinished story. Iran's actions, both during and after the war, underscore a coherent and disciplined doctrine: absorb the blow, retaliate with calibrated precision, and use time as a tool of power. Strategic patience, for Tehran, is not passive restraint; it is a form of long-term psychological and political warfare. Whether the ceasefire holds or shatters under the weight of unresolved tensions will depend not just on missiles or negotiations, but on which side better understands the value of time. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

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