NBA Finals Game 7 Odds, Best Bets, Prediction: Thunder Heavy Home Favorites

Newsweek

4 hours ago

Despite being blown out in Game 6, the Thunder are the heavy betting favorites in Game 7 vs. the Pacers on Sunday night.
Despite being blown out in Game 6, the Thunder are the heavy betting favorites in Game 7 vs. the Pacers on Sunday night.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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The Thunder entered the NBA Finals vs. the Pacers as one of the biggest betting favorites in Finals history, but now need to win Game 7 at home on Sunday night to avoid a historic upset.
Tonight's contest marks the first NBA Finals Game 7 since 2016, when Cleveland finished off its memorable comeback win over the Warriors in a series it had trailed 3-1.
Given how up-and-down these Finals have been for OKC and Indiana -- both from quarter-to-quarter and game-to-game -- the (likely) most-watched matchup of the 2024-25 season might also be the toughest one to predict and/or bet on.
NBA Finals Game 7 Betting Odds: Spread, ML
DK FD bet365 IND spread +7.5 (-112) +7.5 (-112) +7.5 (-115) OKC spread -7.5 (-108) -7.5 (-108) -7.5 (-105) IND ML +225 +240 +235 OKC ML -278 -295 -290 Total 214.5 (o-110; u-110) 214.5 (o-112; u-108) 215 (o-110; u-110)
The Pacers showed in Game 1 that these teams were more evenly matched than oddsmakers thought, but Indiana has nevertheless been the underdog in every game of this series.
With that in mind, we shouldn't necessarily be surprised that the Thunder are favored by 7.5 points in Game 7. This is also a good time to mention both Game 7 of OKC vs. Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals and Game 5 of OKC-Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder won those games 125-93 and 124-94, respectively.
For context, below are the closing betting lines for the three previous games in these Finals that took place in OKC:
Game 1: OKC -9.5 (Final: IND 111, OKC 110)
Game 2: OKC -10.5 (Final: OKC 123, IND 107)
Game 5: OKC -8.5 (Final: OKC 120, IND 109)
How to Watch NBA Finals Game 7: Pacers vs. Thunder
Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC
NBA Finals MVP Odds Entering Game 7
This series was widely expected to be a cakewalk for OKC, and on a related note, there was little disagreement on who would win Finals MVP. Regular-season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Finals MVP odds were almost as short as OKC's odds to win the title.
But although he's averaged over 30.5 points per game, oddsmakers are still giving three players besides SGA a real chance to Finals MVP: Indiana's Pascal Siakam, OKC's Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton.
As you can see below, SGA is still the clear favorite, but a bad Game 7 by Gilgeous-Alexander and/or a huge night by Siakam, Williams or Haliburton could be enough for one of the latter to win MVP.
FD DK Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -240 -205 Pascal Siakam +300 +370 Jalen Williams +1200 +1100 Tyrese Haliburton +1600 +1100
NBA Finals Game 7 Analysis, Key Questions
This year's Finals have delivered one shocking result after another, which means no outcome should be ruled out in Game 7.
The Thunder have played well enough at times this during series that a comfortable home win to clinch the title is a possibility.
At this point, though, betting on anyone to pull away from the Pacers in a must-win Game 7 just seems like a great way to lose money.
Who Wins The Turnover Battle -- OKC or Indiana?
Sunday's game will likely be decided by the turnover battle and -- on a related note -- whether OKC can be efficient in the halfcourt. The Thunder recorded assists on less than half of their made field goals in Games 1, 3, 4 and 6, with losses in all of those besides Game 4 (SGA memorably took over that game down the stretch to bail out OKC).
OKC has consistently won the turnover battle throughout the regular season and playoffs. The Pacers, however, were dominant on that front in Game 6, scoring 19 points on 21 Thunder turnovers while committing just 11 TOs.
The Thunder have also coughed up at least 14 turnovers in four of the last five games in this series. That raises real concerns about whether SGA and Co. can make the right plays against Indiana's defensive pressure in Game 7.
Ironically, many expected this exact issue -- pressure defense forcing turnovers and leading to easy offense the other way -- to play a huge role in these Finals. But the consensus was that it was OKC who was going to be disrupting the Indiana offense (not the other way around).
Will Indiana's O-Rebounding, Bench Come Through Once Again?
Indiana's Games 1, 3 and 6 victories came thanks to its domiance of two other areas of this matchup that the Thunder were expected to control: bench points and offensive rebounding.
The Pacers have grabbed more than 20 percent of their missed shots three times in the Finals, including in their wins in Games 1 and 6.
Indiana has also gotten more bench scoring than OKC in every contest besides Game 2. Overall, the Pacers' bench has outscored the Thunder's by 64, and Indy's reserves have accounted for at least 34 points in all six games.
While the Pacers' T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin have all averaged at least 10 points per game off the bench in the Finals, the only Thunder reserve who is averaging at least 10 points in the Finals is Alex Caruso.
OKC has gotten huge series from both SGA and Jalen Williams, but can it win Game 7 without Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, or someone else stepping up to provide complementary scoring?
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 7 Best Bets
If it's not clear at this point, I have far more questions than answers about how Game 7 will play out tonight.
While their ceiling remains untouchable, the Thunder have failed to fire on all cylinders in this series for good reason: the Pacers just don't let their opponents get comfortable on either side of the ball.
I'm not quite willing to pick Indiana to win Game 7 on the road, but I do like the Pacers to keep this close, especially early.
I also expect both offenses to struggle, which leads me to the Pacers on the first-half spread and the Under as my two favorite NBA Finals Game 7 best bets.
If I have to choose who will take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy, I'll reluctantly pick the Thunder at home, but I recommend staying away from this game's spread.
Pacers 1H +5 (-110 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
Under 215 (-110 at bet365) -- 0.5 units
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