More inpatient beds needed by 2040 to meet demand

RTÉ News​

6 days ago

The number of inpatient beds in acute public hospitals will need to increase by at least 4,400 by 2040, if the State is to keep up with the demands of an aging population, according to new research.
New projections from the Economic and Social Research Institute have revealed that the number of required additional beds for inpatient services could reach 6,800 at the higher end of the scale.
That would represent an increase on the current bed capacity of between 40% and 60%.
It is forecast the population could increase from 5.3 million people to anywhere between 5.9 million - 6.3 million by 2040, while the number of people over the age of 65 will go from one in seven to one in five.
The ESRI's Health Service Capacity Review report said an additional 650 to 950 day patient beds by 2040 are needed to meet projected growth requirements, which would represent an increase of between 25% and 37%.
It has also noted the occupancy rates across all beds in the public system are at 92.6%.
Dr Aoife Brick, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said the findings "highlight significant future growth in demand for public acute hospital services, driven primarily by population growth and ageing".
"The report offers policymakers evidence on the scale of service expansion needed to meet future demand," Dr Brick added.
In the Programme for Government, there is a pledge to "increase capacity by between 4,000 and 4,500 new and refurbished inpatient hospital beds across the country".
Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the report "allows us to better anticipate future healthcare demand and capacity".
This, she said, will ensure "our health system evolves to meet the needs of our changing population".
"I look forward to ongoing engagement with the ESRI and our colleagues in the HSE as we continue to develop and strengthen our future capacity plans," the minister added.
Reacting to the report, Sinn Féin said it lays bare the failure by Government to get ahead of increasing capacity in acute hospitals, which the party claims has led to overcrowding and extremely dangerous situations in emergency departments.
Sinn Féin's health spokesperson David Cullinane said he has been "calling on the Government in each and every budget to provide the capital funding to increase bed capacity".
"They have failed to do this over the last five years," he said.
"The Government have to make the investments over the next number of years. They are playing catch up," he added.
Meanwhile, a separate report has found just one third of admissions from emergency departments or wards into intensive care happened within one hour of the decision being made to admit, while 87% were admitted within four hours.
The Irish National ICU Audit annual report, published by The National Office of Clinical Audit (NOCA), highlights pressures on capacity within ICUs across the public hospital system.
It found the national average occupancy rate for ICU beds is 95% - well above the recommended rate of 85%.
Despite the pressures, NOCA said the ICU network maintained "high quality outcomes" compared to international standards.
It said 80% of ICU patients survived to the point of being discharged, adding this is "satisfactory" considering the severity of illness of patients who were admitted to ICU.
Commenting on the findings, Professor Rory Dwyer, Clinical Lead for the Irish National ICU Audit, said the study "highlights the resilience and quality of care delivered across Irish ICUs, despite significant resource challenges".
"While our overall outcomes are encouraging, the data underlines persistent issues, particularly in terms of bed capacity and timely admission to ICU," he said.
The report recommends continued investment to expand ICU capacity, maintaining a focus on timely access to critical care and further development of ICU outreach services to support deteriorating patients outside of ICU settings.