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Irish Times
17 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Times
We need to confront the reality that the housing shortage can't be solved
There is a throwaway line in a recent Davy report on the economy that concludes that if Ireland's population continues to grow at its current rate, and we want to reach European levels of housing supply we would need to build 122,000 new homes each year until 2030. 'This would be close to a quadrupling of current housing output, which seems unlikely to be feasible,' the author observes rather drily. It is something of a mic drop. The takeaway is that the housing shortage is intractable, and for the foreseeable future we could be condemned to live in some sort of housing purgatory, never to enter affordable housing heaven. Davy's pessimism seems well grounded. The State's current housing target, set out in the revised National Planning Framework published in April, calls for the construction of 50,000 homes a year. It is based on population projections from the State-funded independent think tank, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). The ESRI used the 2022 census data to model future population growth and estimate it will reach 5.53 million by 2027 and 5.67 million in 2030. The Central Statistics Office (CSO), which conducted the census, has its own projections. They estimate that the population will reach between 5.49 million and 5.58 million by 2027 depending on migration and 5.59 million and 5.75 million in 2030. [ The Irish Times view on Ireland's rising population: a landmark moment Opens in new window ] But both official estimates – which it must be remembered underpin the national housing strategy – already seem to have wildly underestimated the impact of migration on population growth. Last month, the CSO released a separate estimate based on people's interactions with the State via services such as social welfare and education. This estimate found that the population had already hit 5.45 million in 2023, some two years before the CSO and ESRI modelling predicted it would happen. Clearly someone is wrong, or, in the case of the CSO, wrong and right. There is little reason to believe that population growth is not continuing to outstrip the CSO and the ESRI's estimates, says Davy's chief economist Kevin Timoney. 'The biggest mistake is to assume population growth will slow,' he says. David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 The last significant wave of migration into Ireland in the 2000s was driven by a combination of cyclical economic factors and the accession of Poland and other central and eastern European states to the European Union. Ireland, unlike other member states, did not impose temporary immigration controls. The current wave, Timoney believes, is more structural than cyclical and is driven by factors such as Brexit, wars and climate change. It will be mostly 'south to north', with migrants drawn by our relative economic wealth compared with their country of origin. There is also the inconvenient truth that we need to attract migrants to underpin economic growth. Davy expects the population to hit 5.9 million by 2030 and to reach European levels of housing provision by that date would be an almost impossible task. [ The people behind the numbers as Ireland's population grows by nearly a third in 20 years Opens in new window ] Timoney believes that building 70,000 houses year is the best that we can hope for, and even that would require a big increase in productivity. The best year on record for house building was in 2006, when 88,500 houses were completed. There were roughly 2,000 building firms operating in the State but the largest only built 1,000 homes. There are far fewer builders now and the sector is dominated by two large home builders who have around 15 per cent of the market. They have the potential to scale up production through greater use of technologies such as off-site manufacturing but much more would be required to hit 70,000 homes a year, including significant investment by the Government into social housing. It is obvious that the gap between the Government target of 50,000 homes and Davy's projected requirement of 120,000 is simply unbridgeable given that we only built 33,000 homes last year. [ Ireland's population outperforms increasingly ageing EU Opens in new window ] The Government has an unpalatable choice. It can stick its head in the sand and cleave to the increasingly dubious prediction that 50,000 houses per year is a both achievable in the short term and sufficient. The alternative is to say that it may have underestimated migration and needs to revise its figures. It's not a good look, but the planning framework did flag the possibility that the numbers may have to be revised to account for higher net immigration. Their problem is that whatever new housing target they produce will stretch credulity even further than the current 50,000. [ David McWilliams: This is what we need to do in Ireland if we want stable, affordable house prices Opens in new window ] The correct but pretty much politically impossible thing to do is to level with the electorate that fixing the problem is going to take far longer than anyone is prepared to admit. And it will probably never be fixed if the definition of fixed is that we achieve European levels of housing provision.
Irish Daily Mirror
18 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Daily Mirror
Government slammed for 'vague' €275.4 billion National Development Plan
The government's announcement of the €275.4 billion National Development Plan (NDP) has been slammed as ministers have been accused of keeping it vague due to an expected lacklustre budget. Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Simon Harris and Independent TD Seán Canney announced funding proposals for the latest NDP on Tuesday. It's the government's long-term plan for large-scale infrastructure projects, covering the period up to 2035. The plan is reworked and reviewed every few years. Despite this being the largest ever capital investment plan in the history of the State, the government has been slammed for the 'unusual' decision to provide few details on the projects. This could be down to an expected disappointing upcoming budget, as politicians may want to save the details of exciting projects until then. However, the Taoiseach said this lack of detail was done purposely to give ministers a chance to draw up a list of projects, with announcements coming 'closer to the budget'. Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dr Alan Barrett said it's difficult for anyone to sink their teeth into this report as it's so vague. Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Claire Byrne on Tuesday, he said: 'We have been used to over the years getting the details of the projects, why it's not happening on this occasion we are not entirely sure. 'Today's document reminds me of the annual estimates process, where departments are being given an indication of what their allocation is going to be. "The idea that now we are having a document with a significant amount of money being launched but not getting a clear sense of what the projects are - but perhaps more importantly the extent at which they relate to one another - that is a little concern I would have today.' Despite economic experts and the opposition finding the lack of details in the NDP disappointing, here is what we know so far: Housing From 2026 to 2030, the government plans to invest €35.955 billion in housing, with Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers saying housing is the main priority. The Taoiseach echoed this as he outlined a target of 300,000 new homes in this timeframe, with 12,000 a year being social housing. Minister Paschal Donohoe and Minister Jack Chambers announcing details of the revised National Development Plan and the Summer Economic Statement at Government Buildings (Image: Stephen Collins / Collins Photos) This is in line with the current Programme for Government targets. Social Democrats housing spokesperson Rory Hearne said 'throwing billions of euros at the housing crisis without announcing a radical reset in policy" is not going to work. He added that the NDP 'gives no indication that the government is planning to move away from the measures that have plagued housing provision in the last decade". Sinn Féin's housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin said the plan will not result in "increased delivery of social and affordable homes". Water A total of €12 billion - outside of the housing allocation - has been earmarked for water infrastructure development. The Taoiseach said this investment is critical to 'support new house building industrial development and regional growth'. Health Some €9.25 billion has been allocated to the health service under the NDP, which is almost double the investment of the previous plan in 2021. There is little detail on projects this will be used on, as the new plan outlined seven previous health projects that have been completed under the NDP in the last three years. The Irish Hospital Consultants Association (IHCA) has welcomed this allocation to the sector. However, with little detail on projects, it has called on Health Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill to ringfence the required funding for the implementation of Electronic Health Records and prioritise the rapid expansion of our current hospital capacity. Transport Some €24.33 billion is being invested into transport up to 2030, with €2 million earmarked for 'low-carbon transportation projects'. This includes the MetroLink underground line for Dublin. However, it's not expected that construction will begin until at least 2028. However, €2.2 billion has been slammed as 'not enough' by some, including Labour's transport spokesperson Ciarán Ahern. He said: 'MetroLink is supposed to be the country's flagship public transport project and €2 billion is no small sum, but in the context of the overall cost of the project, it's nowhere near enough. "We're talking about a fraction of what's actually required to see this project through." There is no mention in the NDP of other projects that the money will be used on with respect to other public transport services such as buses or trains. Climate and energy Exchequer funding of €5.6 billion has been allocated to climate and energy, as the Taoiseach said expanding investment here is 'critical to our national security and to realising the enormous potential of AI to future economic development'. The government is increasing its equity shareholdings in ESB to €1.5 billion and EirGrid to €2 billion, which was widely welcomed by both. Education The Department of Education and Youth is receiving €7.55 billion in the new NDP. It will be used to facilitate the construction of school places in primary, post-primary, special classes and special schools between 2026 and 2030. A further €4.55 billion is allocated to higher and further education. Culture, Communication and Sport Some €2.22 billion has been earmarked for this department, however, there isn't yet any information on how the funding will be used. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
Irish Times
a day ago
- Business
- Irish Times
The Irish Times view on the State's new investment plans: the work is only starting
The Government's plan to invest more to address the infrastructure deficits in the Irish economy is a move in the right direction. Shortfalls in housing, water, energy and transport are not only crippling competitiveness but affecting people's daily lives. The Government is correct to push ahead with its planning, despite the international uncertainty. A growing economy and a rising population have left recent administrations running to catch up. International investors have been increasingly outspoken about Ireland's infrastructural shortfalls. All of this needs to be addressed. And Taoiseach Micheál Martin is correct when he says that State investment spending must be protected no matter what. However, the plans published yesterday raise of number of important questions. The lack of any detail of the projects to be included in the plan is somewhat puzzling. Everyone knew in the final period of the last government and the opening months of this one that the review was due. So why has no list of projects been completed? Because of this, as Prof Alan Barrett of the Economic and Social Research Institute pointed out, we do not have any of the essential detail on how the projects all fit together. READ MORE There are, of course, a significant number of projects which we do know about and which will be funded by the money now being put aside. The focus on vital areas such as water, wastewater and energy is important. But with last-minute rows over housing in particular, it is unclear that the Government yet has a convincing plan in this key area. An updated housing plan, due in the autumn, needs to give a clear view . The Government is also – belatedly – looking seriously at the blockages and delays to project planning. This is welcome but long overdue. These issues have been hiding in plain sight in recent years, leading to extraordinary delays and additional costs in projects large and small. Too much time was lost here by the last government. This one needs to get serious on the issue of the delivery. This will be uncomfortable politically and it remains to be seen if the Government has the stomach for the necessary fights. The scale of the investment commitments being made are significant. And paying for it will use a lot of the leeway in the national finances and also the cash put aside from the Apple tax payment and the sale of AIB shares. This means a higher level of risk. To create the required leeway in the national finances – and ensure yet more cash is not pumped into the economy – the increased investment spending must be combined with much tighter control of day-to-day spending. This is the trade off. If this does not happen, then the scale of the financial risks facing the State will increase yet further. And they are already high enough.
Irish Post
a day ago
- General
- Irish Post
New report shows people in disadvantaged areas have a more negative view of migrants
A NEW report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) shows that public opinion on immigration is more negative in disadvantaged areas. The study is based on a survey of over 1,200 people in 2023 along with data from the 2022 Census. Researchers suggest that fears about pressure on national services and crime are driving sentiment on the issue. Despite public concerns, the ESRI found no direct link between local shortages in healthcare, housing, or education and negative views toward immigration. Using indicators like the number of general practitioners per household and housing affordability, the study concluded that attitudes are influenced more by perception than by local experience. Geography also plays a role. People living in rural areas tend to have more negative attitudes toward immigration than those in urban centres. However, rural communities with higher proportions of migrants expressed similar attitudes to urban areas, pointing to the impact of everyday social contact in shaping views. Places where migrants live evenly among the broader population show more positive attitudes compared to regions where migrants are concentrated in clusters. This reinforces the idea that regular, informal interaction between neighbours, school parents, or community members can foster understanding and social cohesion. Dr. Frances McGinnity, lead author of the report, noted that local communities can be both a barrier and a bridge to integration. 'Communities are spaces where migrants and non-migrants not only encounter each other but can also form lasting social ties,' she said. Her co-author, Keire Murphy, added that socio-economic disadvantage is one of the strongest predictors of negative sentiment, echoing similar findings in other countries. 'The broader social and economic context is important for attitudes towards immigration,' she said. Meanwhile, Irish authorities are dealing with more immediate concerns related to immigration enforcement. Under 'Operation Sonnet,' the Garda National Immigration Bureau (GNIB) has returned more than 440 migrants to Northern Ireland and Britain since the beginning of 2024. These include individuals who crossed into Britain via the English Channel and then travelled on to Ireland to make secondary asylum applications or claim additional benefits. In one case, an Afghan national who had already applied for asylum in Britain attempted to register again in Ireland. Another case involved a man claiming to be Afghan, who was later found to have a Pakistani passport on his phone. Officers say they are increasingly aware of attempts to exploit the Common Travel Area between Ireland and Britain, with strong cooperation between Irish and British authorities to address these issues. The ESRI study states that fostering social integration in disadvantaged areas should be a key focus for future policy. Encouraging social contact and addressing underlying socio-economic inequality could be more effective in improving public attitudes than focusing solely on enforcement or deterrence, it says. See More: Asylum Seekers, Dr Frances McGinnity, ESRI, GNIB, Immigation
The Journal
a day ago
- General
- The Journal
'No evidence' of link between attitudes towards immigration and pressure on services, says ESRI
THERE IS 'NO evidence' of a link between negative attitudes towards immigration and pressure on local services in a community, according to a new study. However, broader economic and social policies, and factors such as disadvantage and segregation, play a 'key role' in social cohesion and attitudes towards immigration. The findings are part of research published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) which is investigating attitudes around immigration at a community level. Overall it has found some importance in 'social contact with migrants for fostering more positive attitudes' towards immigration in communities. 'While some communities perceive immigration more negatively than others, positive social contact can play a key role in improving attitudes and therefore social cohesion,' the ESRI said. 'The findings about pressure on services indicate that it may not be direct local experiences that impact attitudes, but may instead be concern about pressure on services in Ireland as a whole.' It added that the findings have important implications for policies aimed at improving migrant integration. The study is based on a representative survey of adults in Ireland looking at views on immigration, conducted in April 2023, matched with Census 2022 and additional data on the communities they live in. Advertisement An earlier ESRI report found that education, financial strain and optimism about the future were factors related to attitudes towards immigration. As part of the research it looked at whether people living in areas with greater pressure on services like health, housing and education held more negative attitudes towards immigration. Using indicators such as the number of GPs per household and housing affordability, high rents and high house prices, it has found 'no evidence of a link', the ESRI said. The share of migrants in a community were not linked with attitudes towards immigration in Ireland overall, the study added. However, people living in more disadvantaged communities had 'more negative attitudes' towards immigration, in particular, disadvantaged communities where there was an increase in migrants since 2011. Living in a rural area was associated with more negative attitudes towards immigration, compared with living in an urban area, but this differed if the rural area had a high percentage of migrants in the community. In that case, had attitudes toward immigration that were 'very similar' to those in urban areas. 'This may reflect the importance of social contact with migrants for fostering more positive attitudes,' the ESRI said. Attitudes to immigration were also 'not related to the proportion of Ukrainian refugees' in people's local area. 'Surprisingly, the proportion of asylum seekers in the community is linked to more positive attitudes to immigration overall, though only a small number of respondents had asylum seekers living in their local area,' the study added. Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal
