Whatcom County's hot, dry summer forecast has many officials worried

Yahoo

26-05-2025

Whatcom County and the rest of Western Washington could be in for a warmer-than-normal summer with a greater chance of wildfires, smoke-filled skies and possibly extreme heat as relatively lackluster La Niña shifts into a neutral pattern, according to a variety of forecasts.
Meteorologists, climate scientists, firefighting officials and others are bracing for a season that could affect anything from air quality and water availability to the number of salmon that survive long enough to spawn.
Those predictions are the result of data from various sources, along with the trend of warmer and drier summers when a neutral phase follows a weak La Niña winter, said Matthew Dehr, wildland fire meteorologist for the state Department of Natural Resources.
'The summers for the past 10 to 15 years have been hotter and drier than the previous 10 years. Previous neutral years have been warmer and drier. We see those patterns and they tend to repeat themselves,' Dehr told The Herald in a phone interview.
Adding to the concern for summer is that mountain snowpack is at 64% of normal for this time of year in the northern Puget Sound region.
Recent weeks have been unseasonably dry, Deputy State Climatologist Karin Bumbaco told The Bellingham Herald.
'Low snowpack is concerning. It isn't great because last year we also had a low snowpack,' Bumbaco said in a phone interview.
Lack of rain and low snowpack could affect the amount of water that farmers and cities can use. It can cause lower water levels on the Nooksack River, which harms salmon, especially spring-run Chinook. It also affects the moisture content of soil.
Of further concern is a drought advisory that's in effect for parts of Western Washington, including Whatcom County, Bumbaco said. The U.S. Drought Monitor puts Western Washington in an abnormally dry phase but doesn't predict drought.
June 1 is the start of meteorological summer, the date that weather forecasters use as a seasonal benchmark.
Weather from June through August is likely to be above normal, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather, a commercial weather-forecasting service. Long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service and its Climate Prediction Center draw the same conclusion.
'Temperatures as a whole from June through August will be above the historical average,' AccuWeather said.
Summer in Western Washington is traditionally the warmest and driest season already, with average daytime temperatures in the low 70s for July and August and monthly rainfall totals of an inch or less in those months as measured at Bellingham International Airport.
All that adds up to a 'significant wildland fire potential' this summer, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, which tracks major fires across the country.
Major wildfires generally affect Bellingham and Whatcom County by creating smoky skies and unhealthy breathing conditions, Bumbaco said. Forested communities such as Sudden Valley and Glacier face a higher threat from a warm, dry summer, however.
'Watching the potential outlooks, what they tell us is that conditions will be more conducive for fire spread,' Bumbaco said.
Public Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove told The Herald in a phone interview that Washington is prepared for fire season, despite uncertainty at the federal level.
State cuts wildfire prevention funds in half. Is WA ready for the summer fire season?
'We're confident that we're going to be ready to roll for the 2025 season,' Upthegrove said.
A new website, Wildfire Ready, can help residents plan for wildfire season. Residents also can visit dnr.wa.gov/smoke for information regarding when smoke could be affecting their area.
'It can make a difference between losing a home and having fire pass you by,' Upthegrove said.