These 6 Republican ‘red lines' could complicate Trump's policy plans

Boston Globe

05-05-2025

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'Some of these are clearly in conflict,' said Rohit Kumar, the coleader of PricewaterhouseCoopers' national tax office and a former aide to Senator Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican.
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Avoiding Medicaid cuts, for instance, would make it almost impossible to slash spending enough to return to 2019 levels, he said: 'It's hard to imagine how those happen in the same bill.'
Other Republicans are more sanguine. 'It's called legislating - or sausage-making,' said Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican and senior member of the Finance Committee, which is playing a central role in drafting the bill. 'It's hard. I'm not surprised it's hard because there's so many competing demands.'
Medicaid
House Republicans have asked the Energy and Commerce Committee to find at least $880 billion in cuts as part of the bill, which the Congressional Budget Office said will be impossible without cutting Medicaid, Medicare, or the Children's Health Insurance Program. Trump and Johnson have
pledged not to end benefits.
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Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, voted against a budget framework last month because of concerns that it would clear the way for Medicaid cuts. Senators Lisa Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska, and Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, have said they are open to adding work requirements to Medicaid but will not vote to cut Medicaid benefits.
A dozen House Republicans warned Johnson in a letter
last month that they 'cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill that includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.'
'There's about 25 people that have real concerns, but I know there's eight to 10 that are serious as a heart attack about this,' said Representative Jeff Van Drew, a New Jersey Republican, who signed the letter.
Van Drew warned Thursday that cutting Medicaid could lead Republicans to lose the House. 'If we're not careful, we're going to ensure we lose the midterms,' he told reporters.
The state and local tax deduction cap
To help pay for their 2017 tax bill, Republicans limited how much Americans could deduct in state and local taxes on their federal returns. Now five House Republicans who represent suburban districts in high-tax states - Representatives Nick LaLota, Andrew R. Garbarino f, Michael Lawler, Young Kim, and Tom Kean Jr. - say they will not vote for legislation to extend the 2017 tax cuts unless the $10,000
cap is lifted.
'The levels for each of the five of us are a little bit different on what solves the day for as many middle-class families as possible, but we're going to stick together to get as much progress as possible,' LaLota told reporters.
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But members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus do not want to raise the cap unless the 'math adds up,' Representative Chip Roy, a Texas Republican,said.
Taxes and fees
The House Transportation Committee has proposed a new $250 electric vehicle registration fee and a $100 registration fee for hybrid vehicles to help pay for the bill. That's a dealbreaker for Senator Rick Scott, a Florida Republican, who said he won't vote for legislation that includes any fee increases.
'I'm not voting for tax increases,' Scott told reporters, 'I'm not voting for fee increases. Period.'
A return to 2019 spending levels
Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, said last week he would not vote for the bill unless it reduces spending to 2019 levels - which he acknowledged was unlikely to happen. 'There's a growing group of us that are insisting on returning to a prepandemic level of spending, which is much lower than what anybody is working on in either the House or the Senate,' Johnson said.
Republicans just aren't considering deep enough spending cuts right now, he said: 'As a result, I'm not going to vote for it.'
The debt limit
Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, voted against the framework underlying the bill because he objected to Republicans' plan to use the bill to raise the debt limit by $5 trillion.
Asked last week whether including such an increase in the bill would lead him to oppose it, Paul said, 'I'm not for raising the debt ceiling $5 trillion, so I'm not for it.'
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The deficit
Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican, who also voted against the budget framework last month, said he has a different red line: He can't vote for a bill that increases the deficit.
In theory, the Republican bill could meet Massie's test
if he accepted the argument - which Senate Republicans have embraced - that it costs nothing to make permanent the 2017 tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year. But Massie appears to be taking the view that making the cuts permanent
isn't free. 'I'm looking at what is the debt 10 years from now compared to what is it now,' Massie said.
The Center for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated that making the cuts permanent will add more than $4 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years, including interest.
'There's actually almost no chance in hell I'm going to vote for this, because there's no chance in hell they're going to be fiscally responsible,' Massie said.
Representative Jason T. Smith, a Missouri Republican, who's deeply involved in writing the bill as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, acknowledged Sunday that House Republicans were still struggling to reach agreement on the details of the legislation.
'Will it be bumpy, Shannon?' Smith told Fox News's Shannon Bream. 'It absolutely is. This is the House of Representatives. But will we get the job done? We absolutely will.'