Russia's problems in Ukraine don't mean it's unable to attack the West. NATO allies warn its war machine is spun up and as dangerous as ever.

Yahoo

06-02-2025

Russia's military has been hammered in its invasion of Ukraine.
But that doesn't mean it wouldn't attack the West, officials and Russia experts warned.
Estonia's ex-foreign minister said Russia was "probably more dangerous than it has ever been."
Russia's military has suffered severe losses in Ukraine, and nearly three years since it launched its full-scale invasion, its soldiers remain locked in a brutal slog. But the West can't rest easy.
Moscow has repeatedly threatened Europe, and Russia is on a war footing, rebuilding and reconstituting its army, manufacturing more weapons, and joining forces with nations hostile to the West.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, who served until late last year as the foreign minister of Lithuania, a European Union and NATO member bordering Russia, noted in an interview with Business Insider that Russia had been investing heavily in its war machine.
The Russians are "not just repairing the tanks from the battlefield, but they're also building ones," he said. "They're building drones" and have had years to test and experiment. They have experienced large-scale combat while the West has focused more on counterterrorism than on preparing for a major war with a near-peer adversary.
"I would probably say that Russia is probably more dangerous than it has ever been," Landsbergis said.
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme, told BI that Russia's struggles in Ukraine didn't preclude the possibility of a Russian attack elsewhere.
Giles said that assuming Russia's setbacks in Ukraine meant it wouldn't launch an attack elsewhere "ignores Russia's habit of convincing itself wrongly that it's capable of doing something and then launching the attack anyway."
Regardless of whether Moscow gets it right or wrong, "the consequences are devastating," he said.
He also noted that heavy troops losses, which Russia sees as cheap assets, had not deterred Russia from continuing its attack on Ukraine.
Many of the professional soldiers whom Russia started this war with are now gone, along with tremendous amounts of equipment.
The UK's minister for the Armed Forces said in December that the UK thought more than 750,000 Russian military personnel had been killed or wounded since it began its full-scale invasion in late February 2022. Russia often relies on expendable forces and decades-old equipment pulled from storage to plug holes in its army.
But Russia's military is far from hollowed out.
Its economy and industry are on a war footing and working overtime to rebuild and rearm, and Russia, as the top US general in Europe said in the fall, has forces, such as strategic aviation assets and submarine forces, that "have been barely touched" by the war. That general, Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, also said the Russian army had grown.
"The narrative that Russia has depleted is the most dangerous one," Landbergis said. "Honestly, I think that Russia is not just not depleted. I think that it's clearly on the warpath."
He said Russia had "way more personnel than" it had before the war, and while those newer service members have much less training than the soldiers Russia had at the beginning, they are still getting invaluable experience.
George Barros, a warfare expert at the Institute for the Study of War, said Russia "has the readiness and the capability to be able to posture and potentially attack members of NATO's eastern flank," which includes Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Andris Sprūds, Latvia's defense minister, told BI "this war has taught us that even a weakened Russia is still a dangerous Russia."
"Although Russia's efforts are currently focused on the war in Ukraine, this is not the time to relax and let our guard down," he said, adding that "we estimate that Russia will reconstitute its military capacity within the next five years' time; therefore, we must do everything to prepare against a potential attack."
Many European countries are sounding the alarm that Russia may act against them.
Sweden started giving citizens a booklet advising them how to prepare for war, and its defense minister recently warned that while Russia's forces were "tied up in Ukraine," Russia "poses a threat to Sweden, as it does to the rest of NATO," adding: "We cannot rule out a Russian attack on our country."
Poland's foreign minister also said last year that he would not be surprised if Russia attacked his country.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former commander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, told BI that Russia, after being "hammered" in Ukraine, was most likely not in a position to attack conventionally.
But "the Russian war machine is spun up at the moment," he said, so Russia could be a more serious threat in five to 10 years. He said NATO had "overwhelming power" to meet an attack, but Russia could still cause significant damage.
European officials say Russian attacks have started, reporting hybrid attacks like cyberattacks, arson, assassination efforts, and attacks on infrastructure linked to Russia.
"Putin is already waging attacks in Europe and testing us and pushing the red lines," Margus Tsahkna, the Estonian foreign minister, told BI.
Barros said the Russian hybrid attacks were "acts of war that we decide not to respond to."
If the West does not send a strong signal to Russia to stop, Landsbergis said, Russia will escalate. "With no clear repercussions for the actions, they're incentivized to go even further."
Landsbergis said his country was preparing for a time when Russia would look elsewhere in Europe. Estonia is doing the same and is, Tsahkna explained, now targeting spending 5% of its GDP, proportionately more than the US, on defense because of "real needs."
That share of GDP, now targeted by both Estonia and Lithuania, would be the highest of any NATO ally.
Some European leaders and warfare experts warn the continent is not producing enough ammunition and weaponry to deter or counter Russia, despite increasing production rates. Tsahkna said Europe needed "to invest in our defense industry, our capabilities."
Sprūds, Latvia's defense minister, said that "we have to invest in our defense" by "increasing defense funding, ramping up production, boosting our resilience, and supporting Ukraine as it fights for all of us."
The Baltic states have been on the forefront of the effort. Ultimately, Landsbergis said, "we need to prepare, and the most dangerous times are up ahead."
Read the original article on Business Insider