Texas goes back to future with controversial congressional redistricting
Holding just 15 of the state's 32 seats in the House, Republicans then kick-started one of the most important strategic moves to help determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill. Republicans in the state legislature worked hand in hand with their congressional delegation to launch a mid-decade redrawing of House district lines.
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Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The president fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday after the agency published a negative jobs report.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers had choice words for President Donald Trump after he fired his stats boss over an abysmal jobs report. Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), on Friday after the agency released its July jobs report showing that the economy added a mere 73,000 jobs—far below the White House forecast of 109,000 jobs. BLS also revised its job numbers down for May and June by 258,000. Trump accused McEntarfer of having 'RIGGED' those numbers 'to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.'
The Hill
26 minutes ago
- The Hill
How foreign policy could crash Republican midterm prospects
This summer's MAGA revolt over the Epstein Files has challenged the longstanding assumption that President Trump has an unbreakable bond with the Republican base. Trump loyalists from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to Steve Bannon to Tucker Carlson have recently criticized the president not just on the Epstein disclosures but also on Medicaid cuts in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill.' Yet new polling shows that another issue could cost Trump crucial support and substantially lower his standing among independent voters whom Republicans need in order to win future elections. While Republicans largely rallied around Trump following the June 22 bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, recent YouGov polling commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research demonstrates substantial political risks for the president and his party if he supports an expanded war involving Israel and Iran. When respondents consider the economic consequences of a broader conflict, as well as their trust in the justifications offered for involvement in such a war, Trump faces overwhelming dissent among Independents. These voters are about one-third of the electorate and currently about evenly split between Democrat-leaning and Republican-leaning. If an issue becomes important in an election and the Independent voters move strongly in one direction, that can swing the election. A clear majority of voters — 65 percent — reported they would hold Trump responsible if gasoline prices rose to $6 a gallon as a result of expanded U.S. military involvement. Among Independent voters, this sentiment rises to 69 percent. Further, when informed that economists would expect a significant rise in mortgage interest rates to result from an expanded conflict — potentially adding over $100,000 in lifetime payments for a typical home — 72 percent oppose U.S. military involvement, with two thirds of those expressing 'strong' opposition. Most polls treat foreign policy decisions as isolated events, simply asking whether voters support or oppose military action. But major interventions do not occur in isolation — they can impact gas prices, mortgage rates and overall confidence in politicians and their political parties. A true measure of public sentiment on expanded military involvement must account for these potential and even likely consequences, which often drive voter attitudes more than abstract strategic considerations. Donald Trump rose politically by highlighting Americans' declining trust in institutions, from government regulators and health experts to traditional media. But the polling shows that Trump himself faces serious accusations from his base of breaching public trust and caving to wealthy donors advocating unconditional support for Israeli policies that millions of voters view as wrong and dangerous. Sixty-three percent of respondents expressed concern that Trump's decision to attack Iran could be influenced by major campaign donors, a concern particularly strong among Independents. And two-thirds of voters — including nearly one-third of Republicans — feel that intervening in an Israel-Iran conflict contradicts Trump's core 'America First' promise. In June, Tucker Carlson accused Trump of being 'complicit in the act of war' following Israel's attacks on Iran, and influential MAGA voices like Steve Bannon echoed similar skepticism. Yet commentary alone is unlikely to shift conservative public opinion. People respond to tangible impacts in their lives. If Trump once again follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into major military action in the Middle East, the consequences may extend beyond geopolitics and significantly impact the president's party in next year's midterm elections. Consider some midterm math. On all five questions related to U.S. intervention in Iran, voters who identify as Republican or Democrat overwhelmingly aligned with their respective parties. For example, by a ratio of 88 percent to 12 percent, Democrats said they did not believe that 'Trump is getting involved in this war for the sake of U.S. national security.' Republicans held the opposite view, with 77 percent believing national security was the reason and 23 percent not believing it. This leaves Independent voters as potentially decisive. According to current polling data, Independents are evenly divided between 'Republican-leaning' and 'Democrat-leaning,' generally indicating close national elections. However, on questions regarding U.S. participation in a war against Iran, Independents are solidly opposed, by a margin of two to one. This leads to an overall result of 63-37 saying that they do not believe that U.S. involvement in such a war is 'for the sake of national security.' While the June war between Israel and Iran appears to be over, another Israeli attack in the near future remains quite possible. Should Trump decide to join such an operation before the next election, it could significantly undermine Republican chances of retaining Congress. Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He is the author of 'Failed: What the 'Experts' Got Wrong About the Global Economy (Oxford University Press). Justin Talbot Zorn is a senior adviser at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Truman National Security Fellow, and served as legislative director for three members of Congress.
Politico
27 minutes ago
- Politico
‘More like a blue trickle': Dems are hoping for a blue wave that might not happen
That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans' shaky handling of economic and foreign policy. Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats' monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster. That doesn't mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024. 'If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,' Taglia said. 'They're going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you're starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.' Redistricting could bite into Democrats' opportunities Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats' plans to reclaim the House. Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024. 'Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we're ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,' said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats' top House super PAC. 'We're bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.' Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats' ability to retake the chamber. Some Democratic governors, including California's Gavin Newsom and New York's Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it's unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off. Tanden says she's optimistic California can counter Texas's gerrymandering by 2026. 'If someone was like, 'while Trump is president we're going to get rid of the commission,' people would be down with that.' Democrats are facing down messy primaries House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map. Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel's war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election. Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary 'asleep at the wheel' Democrats.
