Hurricane Erin grows bigger and stronger. Latest forecast, impacts on Jersey Shore.
That's the latest word from the National Hurricane Center, which continues to warn beach-goers up and down the East Coast — including the entire Jersey Shore — to stay out of the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days.
Turbulent seas, huge breaking waves and powerful rip currents will all create life-threatening conditions for boaters and swimmers both Wednesday and Thursday, according to weather forecasters and public officials.
Erin's top sustained winds are blowing at 110 mph, making it a high-level Category 2 hurricane — just short of returning to 'major hurricane' status.
In addition to its growing strength, Erin's size is massive. The storm is now more than 800 miles wide as it continues to churn northward off the eastern Atlantic coast.
Forecasters say hurricane-force winds are now stretching out as far as 105 miles from Erin's center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward to 265 miles.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Hurricane Erin's center was about 530 miles west of Bermuda, 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and about 635 miles south of Cape May, New Jersey.
At its closest pass, Erin's center is expected to be spinning about 350 to 400 miles southeast of Cape May on Thursday. That is close enough for the storm to bring 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, huge waves and dangerous rip currents to beaches in Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth and Ocean counties, forecasters say.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along the Jersey Shore, with some areas at risk of major flooding — particularly during high tide cycles Thursday evening through Friday evening, according to the National Weather Service.
Major coastal flooding and tidal flooding is possible in Cape May County, the agency noted.
Emergency management officials in Cape May County noted that 'forecasts indicate a peak (tidal) surge of 1 to 3 feet in the Delaware Bay, which may impact low-lying areas of bayside communities in Middle Township, Dennis Township, and surrounding areas.'
Latest weather alerts in N.J.
Wind advisory: Atlantic, Cape May and Ocean counties from 10 a.m. Thursday to midnight Thursday. Steady northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
Coastal flood warning: Atlantic and Cape May counties from 5 p.m. Wednesday to 2 a.m. Saturday. The greatest impacts from coastal flooding are expected with the Thursday evening high tide. Locally major flooding impacts are possible.
Coastal flood watch: Cumberland, Ocean, Middlesex, Monmouth and southeastern Burlington counties until 2 a.m. Saturday. One to two feet of inundation above ground level possible in low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
High surf advisory: Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth and Ocean counties now until Friday at 6 p.m. Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet are expected in the surf zone on Wednesday, and breaking waves as high as 7 to 12 feet are expected on Thursday.
Rip current alert: Forecasters are warning beach-goers about a high risk of life-threatening rip currents at all ocean beaches in Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth and Ocean counties on Wednesday and Thursday, possibly extending into Friday.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com or on X at @LensReality.
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Scientific American
27 minutes ago
- Scientific American
How to Decode a Hurricane Forecast
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Above is an example of what you might see if you visit the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) website during a storm in progress—in this case it's an archived forecast from 2024's Hurricane Milton. Various broadcasters, news sites and other groups that cover the weather often have their own versions of this map. There's a lot happening here, so let's break things down piece by piece. Timeline First off, because the cone-of-uncertainty graphic is a depiction of a forecast, it's looking into the future. Each update to the map shows the storm's current location, then roughly where the center of the storm will be over the next three to five days (depending on which version you are looking at). Cone of Uncertainty This is the centerpiece of the graphic—the actual cone of uncertainty—so called because it is an indicator of the possible error range in that forecast of where a tropical storm or hurricane is headed. 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The letters show whether a storm will be a tropical depression (D), tropical storm (S), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (M). (A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.) A black circle means the storm is a tropical cyclone, or one that derives its strength from heat-driven convection at its core. A white circle denotes a potential tropical cyclone (one that could become a tropical cyclone) or a former one—often a storm that is now extratropical, meaning it is driven more by a temperature difference across a weather front than by convection. There are also color-coded indicators of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. But these indicators are only based on a storm's wind speeds—they don't suggest anything about potential storm surge, rainfall or tornadoes, all of which can be threats from tropical cyclones. 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The NHC also has maps that show when tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds are likely to arrive at given locations and detailed maps showing expected storm surge levels. Much of this information is pulled together on the National Weather Service's Hurricane Threats and Impacts Tool, as well. This interactive map overlays the cone of a storm on top of wind, tornado, storm surge and rain threat information. You can click a given location and it will tell you what hazards you need to be concerned about. One of the most important things to remember no matter what forecast you're looking at is that forecasts change. Small variations in the storm itself or the larger atmospheric patterns can shift a storm's path or intensity. Human brains can naturally fall prey to the 'anchoring effect'—we can become mentally rooted in one specific forecast and base our decisions on it rather than updating our thinking as conditions change. 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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin tracker: Storm surge warning issued in North Carolina as Category 2 storm starts to head northeast — see the latest path
Beachgoers are being urged not to swim at most East Coast beaches due to dangerous surf conditions. While Hurricane Erin is beginning to turn toward the northeast, a storm surge warning has been issued in North Carolina because "large and dangerous waves" could cause "surge-related flooding" along the coast, the National Hurricane Center said. Erin is currently a Category 2 storm, and rip currents and high tides are expected to occur later today, with waves expected to peak between 2 and 4 feet along the Outer Banks, N.C. The rough surf conditions from Erin could affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and beaches up and down the East Coast over the next several days. "Beachgoers are cautioned against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents," the hurricane center said. Officials in North Carolina have already declared states of emergency in Dare and Hyde Counties and ordered mandatory evacuations of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, even though the storm isn't forecast to make landfall. But tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to make an impact on the barrier islands. North Carolina Highway 12 is the primary road that connects the islands in the Outer Banks and separates the Sound side from the Atlantic Ocean side. It's expected to be torn up and washed out in several places from the impacts of Erin, which could isolate villages for days or even weeks. Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path? As of 8 a.m. ET Thursday: Erin was located 440 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and about 210 miles east of Cape Hatteras, N.C. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm. It's moving north-northeast at 17 mph. According to the NHC's latest advisory, Erin is expected to turn northeast later today. It's expected to increase in forward speed with even more acceleration on Friday and into the weekend. The NHC forecast track shows that Erin's center will be over the western Atlantic Ocean between the East Coast and Bermuda through Friday morning, before passing through southern Atlantic Canada Friday evening and Saturday. Watches and warnings As of 8 a.m. ET Thursday, these are the advisories in place, according to the NHC: Storm surge warnings are in effect for: Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. Tropical storm warning is in effect for: Beaufort Inlet, N.C., to Chincoteague, Va., including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. 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Though Erin is not expected to make direct landfall, swells generated by the storm will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 'These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents,' the NHC said. What are the chances Erin will intensify? Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday and again on Monday before weakening on Tuesday. It is currently a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. "Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so," the NHC said. "Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend." Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles. How is hurricane season shaping up? The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), of which up to five could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph). A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
New York Post
an hour ago
- New York Post
Hurricane Erin batters NC Outer Banks, floods part of its main highway
RODANTHE, N.C. (AP) — Hurricane Erin battered North Carolina's Outer Banks with strong winds and waves that flooded part of the main highway and surged under beachfront homes as the monster storm slowly began to move away from the East Coast on Thursday. Forecasters predicted the storm would peak Thursday and said it could regain strength and once again become a major hurricane, Category 3 or greater, but it was not forecast to make landfall along the East Coast before turning farther out to sea. Tropical storm conditions were in effect over parts of the Outer Banks and the coast of Virginia, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. In Bermuda, residents and tourists were told to stay out of the water with rough seas expected through Friday. Advertisement 5 Hurricane Erin hit North Carolina's Outer Banks with flooding and strong winds. AP There was flooding along part of the North Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts, the center said Thursday morning. Authorities predicted that the largest swells during high tide would cut off villages and homes on the Outer Banks and whip up life-threatening rip currents from Florida to New England. Big waves push water over roads As Erin's outer bands brushed the Outer Banks, water poured onto the main route connecting the barrier islands and a handful of stilted homes precariously perched above the beach. By Wednesday evening, officials had closed Highway 12 on Hatteras Island as the surge increased and waves rose. The road remained closed Thursday. Ocracoke Island's connection to its ferry terminal was cut off. Advertisement Melinda Meadows, property manager at the Cape Hatteras Motel in Buxton who decided to ride out the storm, said a door was ripped off a townhouse, some walls have been knocked out, and some heat pumps were washed out. 'It's the force behind the water,' she told WRAL-TV. Farther north, on Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, dozens of people were out taking photos of the huge waves crashing into the structure and even bird-watching amid the driving rain Thursday morning. 5 Hurricane Erin was not forecast to make landfall along the East Coast. REUTERS Advertisement 'This is nature at her best,' said David Alan Harvey of Nags Head. 'I love this. I love these storms.' Harvey was unconcerned about being on a pier jutting into the ocean, saying he considered it safer than most other places. 'Driving my car is a lot more dangerous than this.' A few feet away, 23-year-old Daniel Irons, who lives in Hatteras, was bird-watching and waiting to see what new ones might be brought in by winds from the storm. Another man, Sebastian Kettner, was fishing. Beaches off-limits along the coast Beaches were closed to swimming Wednesday and Thursday in New York City, and some others in New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware were temporarily off-limits. Widespread, moderate coastal flooding was forecast for low-lying areas of Long Island and parts of New York City. Advertisement Off Massachusetts, Nantucket Island could see waves of more than 10 feet (3 meters) this week. But the biggest threat remained along the Outer Banks where longtime residents didn't seem too concerned. 5 People walk on an empty boardwalk as large waves from Hurricane Erin keep swimmers away on Thursday in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Getty Images 'I remember taking canoes out of my front yard to get to school, so I don't think it's gonna be that bad,' said Jacob Throne, who lives on Hatteras Island and works for surf shops. Despite beach closures elsewhere, some swimmers continued to ignore the warnings. Rescuers saved more than a dozen people caught in rip currents Tuesday at Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina, a day after more than 80 people were rescued. Bob Oravec, a National Weather Service forecaster, said that even if someone thinks they know how to handle a rip current, it's not safe. 'You can be aware all you want,' he said. 'It can still be dangerous.' 5 Rescuers saved more than a dozen people caught in rip currents Tuesday at Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina, despite beach closures. REUTERS Huge waves forecast to cause coastal flooding A combination of fierce winds and huge waves estimated at about 20 feet (6.1 meters) could cause coastal flooding in many beachfront communities, North Carolina officials warned. Waves were estimated as high as 18 feet (5.5 meters) Thursday morning, according to local weather reports. Advertisement Dozens of beach homes already worn down from chronic erosion and protective dunes could be at risk, said David Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Most residents decided to stay despite evacuations ordered on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. 5 The sunset before Hurricane Erin's near approach, in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, on Wednesday. REUTERS 'We probably wouldn't stay if it was coming directly at us,' said Rob Temple, who operates sailboat cruises on Ocracoke. Advertisement His biggest concern was whether the main route would wash out and if tourists and delivery trucks may be cut off from the thin stretch of low-lying islands, which are increasingly vulnerable to storm surges. The Hatteras Island Rescue Squad, a volunteer group based in Buxton, said it received no calls for rescues Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Erin remains a large hurricane as it heads out to sea Erin has become an unusually large and deceptively worrisome system, with tropical storm-force winds spreading across 500 miles (800 kilometers) — roughly the distances from New York City to Pittsburgh. Advertisement It remained a Category 2 hurricane Thursday morning with maximum sustained winds around 105 mph (165 kph), the hurricane center said. Erin was about 210 miles (338 kilometers) east of Cape Hatteras and moving north-northeast at 17 mph (28 kph). The hurricane center was also watching two tropical disturbances far out in the Atlantic that could develop into named storms in the coming days. With thousands of miles of warm ocean water, hurricanes known as Cape Verde storms are some of the most dangerous that threaten North America. Climate scientists say Atlantic hurricanes are now much more likely to rapidly intensify into powerful and catastrophic storms, fueled by warmer oceans.
