Rosenberg: Trump-Putin call seen as victory in Russia
Judging by some of the headlines today in Russia, Moscow believes that the latest telephone conversation between Presidents Putin and Trump went well - certainly for the Kremlin."Putin and Trump agreed to work together on Ukraine resolution," concludes Izvestia."Record-long Putin-Trump call," declares Komsomolskaya Pravda. The paper's website adds: "As things stand Russia has scored a diplomatic victory here."Why are some in Russia claiming "victory" after this two-hour phone call?Probably because, by the end of it, Vladimir Putin hadn't been pressured into making any major concessions to Ukraine or to the United States. On the contrary, he had - in effect - rejected President Trump's idea of an immediate unconditional 30-day ceasefire.Follow latest updates on this storyInstead of pressuring Moscow with the threat of even tougher sanctions and penalties, to get Russia to sign up to its plan, the US administration reacted by praising the Kremlin leader."We had a great call," Donald Trump told Fox News."I would commend President Putin for all he did today on that call to move his country close to a final peace deal," said Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff.
Not only did Moscow not agree to an unconditional ceasefire, President Putin set his own pre-conditions for peace. They include an end to Western military aid to Kyiv and intelligence sharing with the Ukrainians, as well as a halt to mobilisation in Ukraine. Such conditions are widely viewed as a way of securing Ukraine's capitulation.It's hard to see Kyiv agreeing to any of that.But could the Trump administration eventually be persuaded, by Moscow, that such conditions are acceptable? And if so, would Washington force Ukraine to accept them?Much may depend on whether the Kremlin can convince President Trump he has more to gain from developing good ties with Moscow than by defending Ukraine's corner.
As if to press home the point, in their conversations with the Americans, Russian officials are already dangling various economic and financial carrots and talking about how mutually beneficial the Russia-US relationship could be if the two countries can re-energise bilateral relations and get to work on joint projects.Vladimir Putin recently raised the prospect of US-Russian cooperation in aluminium production and rare minerals mining.The message appears to be getting through."We'd like to have more trade with Russia," said Donald Trump on Tuesday in his interview with Fox News. "They have some very valuable things for us, including rare earth. They have a big chunk of real estate, the biggest in the world. They have things that we could use."Moscow may well be hoping - possibly calculating - that Donald Trump will prioritise getting a chunk of that "Russian real estate" over securing an acceptable deal for Ukraine to end the war.It's a point echoed today by the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper:"Moscow's logic is to make economic relations with America so profitable that severing them would be too costly for the United States."After Ukraine had agreed to an unconditional ceasefire a week ago, the US administration publicly announced that "the ball is in [Russia's] court".Now that Vladimir Putin has rejected the deal and set his own conditions, the Kremlin leader has hit it back into America's "court".But Russia and America will continue their discussions - both on Ukraine and on US-Russian ties.And it's these negotiations which are likely to influence Donald Trump's next move.
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Israel attacks on Iran, and Iran response, bin cause fear on global financial markets on Friday, 13 June. Di price of oil bin go high, up to 7% by mid-afternoon on Friday. Dis dey make pipo worry say we fit dey face anoda period wey di price of energy go rise, and dat automatically go make di price of evritin from petrol and food to holidays to go up. Dis na wetin happun afta Russia invade Ukraine three years ago, and e affect pipo lives around di world. How much oil price don rise? Di attacks bin lead to an instant reaction on di markets. Brent Crude - di main international benchmark – rise more dan 10% bifor e fall back to around $75 a barrel. Di price of oil dey rise and fall all di time in response to big geopolitical events, plus di state of di global economy, so no be surprise to see say oil prices dey react to di attacks. However, di Brent crude price still dey about 10% lower pass dat of 2023. E also dey below di peaks we see for 2022 afta Russia attack Ukraine, wen e spike to nearly $130. Di price of petrol plus oda prices don go up? Wen di price of oil for wholesale go up, many pipo no dey quick notice am until di price of petrol go up. But more expensive energy go lead to higher prices for almost evritin, from farming to manufacturing. Wen e come to food, higher energy costs fit make food dey very expensive. Rise in di price of oil go make am dey more expensive to run farm machinery, to transport produce, and to process and package food. However, dat go only happun if energy prices stay high for a sustained period. Even wit petrol and diesel, rising crude prices only get limited impact. "One rough rule of thumb na $10 rise for di price of oil go add about 7p to di price for di pump," David Oxley for Capital Economics tok. Many pipo go remember how di price of energy and everytin go up for di beginning of di Ukraine conflict. Dat na big response to higher gas prices, Oga Oxley tok. Many of us heat our homes wit gas, and for UK, dem dey set di price of electricity in relation to di price of gas. Gas prices don also rise afta Thursday night attacks. But households go feel di impact slowly, if di regulator try fix di price, Oga Oxley tok. Price of oil fit go high? Di current situation dey "very significant and concerning" Richard Bronze di head of geopolitics for consultancy and research firm Energy Aspects, tok. But e no mean say e go get big impact like di Ukraine conflict, or even previous troubles for di Middle East. Di main questions now na how long Israel and Iran go remain for dis conflict, weda oda kontris for di region go join, and if di US go step in to try solve di situation. Above all, e depend on weda we go see actual disruption to shipping for di Strait of Hormuz, di waterway off Iran southern coast, wey be di route to global markets for about a fifth of di world oil production. "Na narrow choke point so na important weak spot for global oil markets," Oga Bronze tok. Without interruption to shipping, oil prices no go remain high. For 2022, afta Russian invade Ukraine, growing demand bin dey for energy as di global economy reopen afta Covid. Now di global economy dey face tougher times, and oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Brazil get di capacity to increase oil supply wey go help lower prices. Wetin dis mean for di global economy? Di scale of any energy price rise, plus di wider impact, go depend on di magnitude of wetin go happun next for di conflict between Israel and Iran. But e get di potential to be "a bad shock for di global economy at a bad time" Mohammed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for asset manager Allianz, tok. "Whichever way you look am, im negative short-term, im negative longer-term. "Na anoda shock to di stability of di US-led global economic order for time wen plenty questions already dey ground." Capital Economics calculate if oil prices go back to ova $100 a barrel dat fit add 1% to inflation for advanced economies, wey make life difficult for central banks wey dey hope to bring down interest rates. But dat no be di most likely scenario for David Oxley view. "Instability for di Middle East no be new thing, we don see am happun ova and ova again," he says. "In a week time everytin go blow up."
