Analysts Say Apple Intelligence Isn't Coming in 2025. Does That Mean It's Time to Ditch AAPL Stock?
From the Mac to the iPhone, Apple's (AAPL) empire thrives on innovation, now fusing artificial intelligence (AI) into every touch, swipe, and voice command, redefining how the world connects. But recently, Apple has struggled to keep the spark of innovation alive. iPhone owners are holding onto their devices longer, and Wall Street is questioning whether Apple still has the magic needed to catalyze another device upgrade boom.
UBS analyst David Vogt doesn't think so - at least not anytime soon. He says Apple Intelligence, the company's highly anticipated AI upgrade, won't arrive in 2025 as expected. That means no game-changing Siri overhaul or killer AI feature to drive demand for the next iPhone. With the average iPhone now over three years old, a major upgrade cycle should be around the corner. But without AI to fuel it, UBS sees no rush for consumers to trade up.
With the future of iPhone demand in question, is patience still a winning strategy for investors? Let's dig deeper.
About Apple Stock
California-based Apple (AAPL) commands a market cap of $3.3 trillion.
Apple, part of the elite ' Magnificent Seven,' dictates tech's future, mastering supply chains and redefining innovation. With an iron grip on hardware, software, and services, Apple is setting new trends, ensuring the world stays tethered to its ever-expanding ecosystem.
Apple, though still 14% below its December peak of $260.10, has surged 30% over the past 52 weeks.
Apple isn't cheap, trading at 30.8 times forward earnings and 8.6 times sales, well above the sector's 26.79x and 2.73x averages, respectively. But premium pricing comes with premium dominance. Investors keep buying in, betting that Apple's ecosystem and brand power will sustain its long-term growth story.
Apple's Q1 Beats Wall Street Projections
Apple's fiscal 2025 first-quarter results on Jan. 30 landed with the weight of a sledgehammer. The company reported $124.3 billion in revenue, a record-breaking feat that edged past Wall Street's projections. Product sales swelled to $98 billion, powered by resurgent iPad and Mac demand, while services soared 14% to a record $26.3 billion.
Net income rocketed to an all-time high of $36.3 billion in Q1, with EPS of $2.40 outpacing the expected $2.36. A razor-sharp product mix pushed gross margins to 46.9%.
Yet, storm clouds loom. With as much as 95% of Apple's products assembled in China, new U.S. tariffs threaten to carve deep into its financial fortress. Apple's famed pricing power and supply chain finesse will be put to the test as it maneuvers through this geopolitical minefield.
Apple kept its cards close on precise future earnings but hinted at steady momentum, expecting low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for the March quarter and a double-digit expansion in services. The bigger picture is that innovation remains Apple's guiding force.
What Do Analysts Expect for Apple Stock?
UBS sees Apple at a crossroads. The brand loyalty is there, but the spark? Not so much. Analyst David Vogt keeps a 'Neutral' rating and a $236 price target, noting that AI-driven iPhone demand isn't materializing as hoped. Vogt sees no major AI-driven boost to iPhone sales in 2025 as Apple Intelligence - Apple's planned AI upgrade - faces delays.
Siri's delayed AI upgrade and a lack of game-changing design tweaks mean iPhone users are holding onto their devices longer - now averaging 37 months, up from 34 last year. The analyst doesn't expect significant improvements to Apple Intelligence or a major iPhone redesign over the next 12 months, even with the iPhone 17 launch in fall 2025.
The tech giant is banking on software revamps and, possibly, a foldable iPhone by 2026. Until then, Apple needs to find new ways to convince users that upgrading is worth it. With no clear driver for an iPhone refresh cycle, UBS remains cautious about AAPL's growth potential in the near term.
AAPL stock has a consensus 'Moderate Buy' rating overall. Of the 36 analysts covering the stock, 17 recommend a 'Strong Buy,' five suggest a 'Moderate Buy,' 10 play it safe with a 'Hold' rating, one says it's a 'Moderate Sell,' and the remaining three analysts advise a 'Strong Sell.'
The tech stock's mean price target of $251.72 suggests that it could rally as much as 13% from the current price levels. The Street-high of $325 implies potential upside of 46%.
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