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Trump gives another country a tariff extension ahead of deadline: Recap
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump introduced last-minute stumbling blocks for several nations seeking reprieves on trade before his reciprocal tariffs begin to go into effect just after midnight. Irked by Canada's support for Palestinian statehood, India's purchases of Russian oil and Brazil's prosecution of its former president, Trump threatened to punish the nations with higher tariffs, regardless of whether the actions directly harm U.S. exports or exacerbate existing trade deficits. In a Truth Social Post, the U.S. president linked Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's announcement that his country would recognize Palestinian statehood to the negotiations with Ottawa to stop a 35% tariff from going into effect at 12:01 am ET on Aug. 1. More: Judges question whether Trump tariffs are authorized by emergency powers "Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!" Trump said. Trump has made a flurry of deals with America's trading partners as his Aug. 1 deadline approaches, including agreements with South Korea and Pakistan and a trade pact with the European Union. Other countries that are currently paying a baseline tariff of 10% and have not entered into a separate arrangement with the United States may see their fees go up. Here's where Trump's tariffs and trade negotiations stand: Trump expected to sign executive order Thursday setting new tariffs Trump will sign an executive order during the afternoon or evening of July 31 setting the new tariff rates for countries around the world, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Trump has already announced several of those rates, ranging from 50% on imports from Brazil to 15% tariffs on goods from several countries including South Korea and the European Union. In April, Trump imposed a baseline 10% tariff that applied to most countries. Trump has said he is likely to raise the baseline to either 15% or 20% beginning Aug. 1. - Joey Garrison Countries to receive new tariff rates before midnight, White House says White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said countries that have not received notice of their new U.S. reciprocal tariff rates will be alerted by the administration before midnight Aug. 1. 'Tomorrow, Aug. 1, the reciprocal rates will be going into effect,' Leavitt said during a July 31 briefing with reporters. Trump has pointed to Aug. 1 as the marker for higher reciprocal tariffs on goods from nearly 200 countries across the world to go into effect. Trump has already announced new tariff rates for several countries and reached deals with other nations, including Japan, Vietnam and the European Union, that includes their new tariff rates. 'We've sent out 17 letters to countries around the world, and the rest those countries that either do not have a deal or have a letter, they will be hearing from this administration by the business deadline tonight,' Leavitt said. - Joey Garrison Mexico trade deal extended for 90 days Trump says he's giving Mexico another 90 days to come to a longer term agreement with the United States to avoid higher tariffs. After speaking by phone to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, he said in a Truth Social post that he was extending existing tariffs on Mexico for 90 days, and possibly longer, while the countries continued to negotiate. "The complexities of a Deal with Mexico are somewhat different than other Nations because of both the problems, and assets, of the Border," he said. "We have agreed to extend, for a 90 Day period, the exact same Deal as we had for the last short period of time, namely, that Mexico will continue to pay a 25% Fentanyl Tariff, 25% Tariff on Cars, and 50% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper." Trump said that Mexico also agreed to "immediately terminate" all of its non-tariff barriers, without providing further details on that part of the agreement. "There will be continued cooperation on the Border as it relates to all aspects of Security, including Drugs, Drug Distribution, and Illegal Immigration into the United States," he said. Mexico had been facing a 30% tariff on non-exempt goods. - Francesca Chambers Trump admin defends use of emergency power to impose tariffs in federal court President Donald Trump's tariffs may be headed for some rocky legal terrain. U.S. appeals court judges indicated during oral arguments on July 31 that they were skeptical the president has the legal authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Department of Justice lawyer Brett Shumate argued in opening remarks that Trump should be able to continue using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs. "But IEEPA has rarely been used, hasn't it," a judge immediately interjected. More: Judges question whether Trump tariffs are authorized by emergency powers Shumate said that since its inception in 1977, the statute has frequently been used by the government. "This is the first time IEEPA has been used for tariffs," Shumate acknowledged. But he said Trump's actions incorporated language that former President Richard Nixon used in 1971 to impose tariffs that were later upheld by the court, and Congress was aware of the case when it passed a law giving the U.S. president emergency powers. - Francesca Chambers/Reuters Trump cites Bolsonaro prosecution in Brazil tariff hike In a July 30 executive order hiking tariffs on Brazil to 50%, he cited the nation's prosecution of former Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, as a reason for higher import fees on some goods. The order moved an earlier deadline for the tariffs to go into effect to Aug. 6. He said that Bolsonaro, who's charged with plotting a coup, had been "politically persecuted." The administration also sanctioned the judge in the case in a separate action on the same day. - Francesca Chambers India in the crosshairs for Russian oil purchases Trump blasted India for purchasing Russian oil, which has helped to prolong Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. He said in a social media post that he'd hit India with a 25% tariff. He also took aim at the country's participation in the BRICS economic group. The club rivals the Group of Seven economic alliance for advanced economies and includes Russia, Brazil, China and South Africa. In an overnight post on social media, Trump hit India again — and needled former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. More: Trump's trade talks intensify with tariff deadline fast approaching "I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World," Trump wrote. "Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he's still President, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!" Medvedev had previously issued a sharp warning to Trump over his threats to put steep tariffs on purchasers Russian oil. "Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with (Trump's) own country," the former Russian president said. - Francesca Chambers U.S. closes in on a China deal Trump's administration has continued negotiate with China, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a July 31 interview with CNBC that the United States' believes a deal is close at hand. "I believe that we have the makings of a deal," Bessent said. Bessent was expected to update Trump on the status of negotiations later in the day. China faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach an agreement with the United States. The tariffs will also face a key legal test this week as the U.S. Court of Appeals hears arguments in a case challenging Trump's authority to tap into emergency powers to impose unilateral tariffs. "If our Country was not able to protect itself by using TARIFFS AGAINST TARIFFS, WE WOULD BE 'DEAD,' WITH NO CHANCE OF SURVIVAL OR SUCCESS," Trump said on social media ahead of oral arguments. - Francesca Chambers This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Midnight deadline looms for countries facing Trump tariffs
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2 hours ago
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CHARLEBOIS: CUSMA-Exempt — the 93% Mirage
Since Aug. 1, many Canadian commentators have downplayed the impact of the 35% tariffs the United States has imposed on select Canadian goods, citing the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and its oft-repeated claim that 90% to 93% of Canadian exports remain exempt. While technically true, this statistic masks the much more complicated — and far less reassuring —reality for Canada's agri-food sector. A prominent December 2024 study from the University of Sherbrooke concluded that 93% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are tariff-exempt. On paper, that number may seem comforting. But it tells only part of the story — especially when it comes to food. Tariff exemptions are not automatic. To qualify for duty-free access under CUSMA, Canadian agri-food products must meet strict rules of origin and complex documentation standards. For many small and mid-sized food processors, these bureaucratic hurdles are burdensome and costly. Products with mixed or processed ingredients — such as snack bars, frozen meals, or nut butters —often fall into grey zones that create uncertainty at the border. The result? Products deemed 'exempt' in theory may still be delayed, penalized, or rejected in practice. Recommended video Most analyses, including the Sherbrooke study, fail to account for this nuance. As a result, the 93% figure is not only misleading — it's largely irrelevant for food companies navigating real-world trade. Worse still, these studies often overlook the geopolitical dynamics shaping food trade. Under President Donald Trump, tariffs have become less about technical qualifications and more about political leverage. The real risk today isn't simply tariffs themselves — it's the mere threat of tariffs. Many Canadian food exporters have already lost long-standing American customers spooked by the unpredictability of trade with Canada. Even in the absence of formal tariffs, the perception of risk is enough to drive U.S. buyers toward domestic suppliers. That's the real game Trump is playing — and winning. Whether a product qualifies for exemption no longer matters if market confidence is eroded. And make no mistake: for the food industry, where net margins are often razor-thin — typically in the range of 2% to 10% — a 35% tariff is not just inconvenient; it's existential. It can erase profitability overnight, making entire product lines unviable and undermining long-term investment. There is no country in the world currently protected by trade agreements in any meaningful way. If you provoke Washington, tariffs — or their threat — will follow. Since Trump's return, no countries have drawn more retaliatory attention than China and Canada. Both have responded with countermeasures, unlike Japan, South Korea, the U.K., or the European Union — all of which have successfully negotiated more stable trade terms and now face significantly lower tariff exposure than Canada. Since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March, Canada has faced more tariffs from the U.S., not fewer. His strategy — if it can be called that — appears to be waiting for the U.S. economy to falter under the weight of its own tariffs. But that's a dangerous gamble. The American economy, for all its recent job market volatility, remains remarkably resilient. Betting against it has never been a winning strategy — just ask Warren Buffett. Some Canadians might believe that reduced access to U.S. markets will lead to food surpluses here at home, pushing prices down. That's a fundamental misunderstanding of how food economics work. Canadian food exporters rely on scale. Export markets allow companies to spread fixed costs and keep domestic prices affordable. If demand from U.S. buyers dries up, Canadian processors will have no choice but to raise prices domestically to stay afloat. The result? Higher—not lower—food prices for Canadian consumers. In short, the 93% tariff exemption statistic may provide political cover or academic reassurance, but it is a mirage. For those of us who work with food companies, study supply chains, and understand export-driven pricing models, the message is clear: Canada's food economy is far more exposed — and vulnerable — than many realize. — Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, co-host of The Food Professor Podcast and Visiting Scholar at McGill University.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
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The two ways Trump's tariffs on Canada could collapse — despite his fight to keep them
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Time's up. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump raised the tariff rate on Canadian goods not covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) from 25 to 35 per cent, saying they 'have to pay a fair rate.' The White House claims it's because of Canada's failure to curb the 'ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs.' U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, however, show that fentanyl seizures from Canada make up less than 0.1 per cent of total U.S. seizures of the drug; most smuggling comes across the Mexican border. But the future of Trump's policy also rests on shaky ground, and the tariffs could come crashing down even if Canada can't reach a deal at some point. Imposed through a controversially declared 'national emergency' under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the tariffs come with essentially three paths for relief to Canadian exporters and their American customers: the courts and the economy. And there's always the wildcard: that the president changes his mind. Without relying on that, National Post looks at two very possible ways out of all this: The courts: There is a big question hanging over whether Trump's tariffs are even legal under the U.S. Constitution, which gives Congress powers over trade. Trump has bypassed that by claiming he's using presidential IEEPA emergency powers. On Thursday, the Washington, D.C.-based Federal Circuit Court of Appeals convened an en banc hearing for oral arguments in challenges to Trump's use of IEEPA. The 11 judges questioned whether the law meant for sanctioning adversaries or freezing assets during emergencies grants Trump the power to impose tariffs, with one judge noting, 'IEEPA doesn't even mention the word 'tariffs.'' The White House, meanwhile, says the law grants the president 'broad and flexible' emergency powers, including the ability to regulate imports. 'Based on the tenor and questions of the arguments, it appears that the challengers have the better odds of prevailing,' Thomas Berry, the CATO Institute's director of the Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies, said in a statement. 'Several judges peppered the government's attorney with skeptical questions about why a broad term in IEEPA like 'regulate importation' should be read to allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs.' Trump's lawyers claim his executive order provides the justifications for the tariffs — in Canada's case, fentanyl. But Berry said 'those justifications would not matter if IEEPA simply does not authorize tariffs in the first place. That is the cleanest and simplest way to resolve this case, and it appears that the Federal Circuit may be leaning toward that result.' A decision is expected this month, and if it's a resounding push back from the judges' panel, said Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst at Heritage Foundation, the Supreme Court may not even take up the case. If so, he says, 'these Liberation Day tariffs and everything that's been imposed under emergency legislation, IEEPA, that all evaporates.' At that point, the White House would not be able to declare across-the-board tariffs against countries. Instead, it would have to rely on laws allowing tariffs to be imposed on specific products that are found to threaten U.S. national security, like those currently imposed on Canadian steel and lumber. The economy: The other path to tariff relief is through economic pressure. If Americans start to see higher prices and economic uncertainty, and push back at the ballot box — or threaten to do so — it could force Trump to reverse course. The most recent figures show that U.S. inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, hit around 2.7 per cent in July. That's a slight rise, fuelled by rising prices for food, transportation and used cars. But it's still close to the Federal Reserve target of two per cent. U.S. unemployment rose slightly to 4.2 per cent in July, while far fewer jobs were created than expected, and consumer confidence rose two points but is still several points lower than it was in January. Overall, most economists agree that risks of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months are relatively low, but skepticism over growth remains high. 'Our outlook is for slower growth in the U.S., but no recession,' said Gus Faucher, chief economist of The PNC Financial Services Group. He notes that the 'tariffs are going to be a drag' because they are a tax increase on imports. Economists have said price inflation from tariffs is not yet being felt in the U.S. but believe it's inevitable. 'Trump's tariff madness adds a great deal to the risks of a recession,' said Steven Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors. 'With tariffs, Americans are going to be paying a big new beautiful sales tax on goods and services imported into the U.S., and taxes slow things down. Taxes don't stimulate.' It is surprising that higher U.S. prices haven't happened yet, said Jonathan Gruber, chairman of the economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But he explained that it's likely a reflection of the duration of contracts and the fact that import sellers haven't yet put up prices — 'because they were hoping it wouldn't be real, like they'd wake up from this nightmare.' 'I think we start to see the effect on prices by the end of the year,' said Gruber. The trouble for Canada, however, is that the Canadian economy is starting from a much weaker position, with higher unemployment, lower consumer confidence, and a slowing GDP, on top of the trade tensions. So, trying to wait things out for the U.S. to feel the pinch will be even more painful for Canadians. And any American downturn will also reverberate north. 'As Uncle Sam goes, so goes Canada,' said Hanke. Gruber agrees with that, but with a caveat. 'It's all bad in the short run and good in the long run,' he says. He believes the U.S. is 'weak and getting weaker' and that Canada should start taking advantage of how the U.S. is making opportunities for other countries to invest in themselves. 'We're not investing in our future. We're killing our education. We're killing our research. We're not allowing in immigrants,' he said, explaining the weakening of the U.S. economy. 'We're basically setting the stage for long-run economic slower growth.' Meanwhile, China is doubling down on investment, research and other longer-term policies. 'Canada and other countries need to do the same,' Gruber said. And as for when a backlash could lead to a reversal in the U.S., Gruber points to two factors. 'It's got to be high inflation, and Trump's opponents need to make sure that the voters understand that's Trump's fault.' National Post tmoran@ Former U.S. ambassador on Canada negotiating with Trump: 'You may not have the best hand' Carney 'disappointed' after Trump hits Canada with higher tariffs Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our newsletters here.
