Could Bitcoin-Based 'Bit Bonds' Build A Better America?

Forbes

31-03-2025

Bit Bonds would promise to integrate bitcoin into Treasury operations in the U.S. and offer a new ... More way of financing government debt.
As the federal government has warmed up to bitcoin in the past few months, many are expecting that continued deregulation of digital assets will kickstart a new round of financial innovation. With it will come new ideas for how to weave bitcoin into the very fabric of the global financial system. One such idea is to use bitcoin to back government debt, colloquially called 'Bit Bonds.'
Today, many Americans watch with alarm as U.S. debt levels eclipse historic records. Meanwhile, bitcoin offers a model for decentralized asset growth that operates independently of central-bank coordination or policy errors. Against that backdrop, a proposal to bundle low-yielding Treasury obligations with a strategic allocation to bitcoin has emerged as one of the most ambitious and perhaps transformative ideas in modern finance. Could a traditionally risk-free instrument could pair successfully with a digital commodity to produce a net benefit for both government and investors?
Bit Bonds operate much like standard Treasuries at first glance. The issuer, who in this case would be the U.S. Treasury, releases bonds at a lower coupon rate than the current market average. Investors accept that smaller fixed payment because a portion of the bond proceeds is allocated to bitcoin, which may rise in purchasing power over the term. By doing so, the issuer saves billions of dollars in interest, and investors gain partial exposure to bitcoin's price.
Bit Bonds tie a small fraction of each newly issued bond to a pool of bitcoin that is purchased at issuance. Each bond's principal remains due in full at maturity, and holders receive an extra payout proportional to bitcoin's price appreciation. If bitcoin fails to appreciate, those investors ultimately have a bond that pays only a nominal coupon – a disappointment by most measures, but still a secure baseline. If, on the other hand, bitcoin rises in purchasing power, as it has historically, the upside would be impressive. Even a normally conservative bond could deliver growth that might rival or surpass the stock market.
This structure effectively combines a zero-coupon or low-coupon bond with an embedded call option on bitcoin, though the issuer conceals some of that complexity behind a straightforward redemption promise. Viewed this way, it's easy to see how investors might be drawn to Bit Bonds for the capital preservation it provides in worst-case scenarios, and for the potential windfall if bitcoin's historical trend continues.
Traditional Treasuries, corporate bonds, or inflation-protected securities like TIPS deliver predictable returns. They generate interest that (one hopes) outpaces inflation, with minimal risk and volatility. In contrast, Bit Bonds come with a layered return.Yes, their principal is backed by the same government credit as a standard Treasury. They may only guarantee a low interest rate of perhaps 1 percent, but with the added bonus of exposure to bitcoin, whose price can easily double or halve in a matter of months. Over a decade, that volatility can produce dramatic gains or remain tepid, shifting the real yield anywhere from negligible to stellar.
Some skeptics liken Bit Bonds to other commodity-linked debt instruments, such as gold-backed treasuries. Gold-centric proposals attract those seeking a hedge against currency debasement. They allow governments to borrow at a discount while ensuring that holders benefit if the metal rises. Bit Bonds purposefully incorporate more volatility – bitcoin can skyrocket or crater faster than gold ever could. The significance of that difference lies in the potential interest savings to the government. With gold, it's tough to entice bondholders to accept a near-zero yield, even with a gold upside. With bitcoin, the historical track record and fervent market interest suggest that some investors would accept a far lower coupon, translating into big savings for the issuer.
That potential for lower interest expenses resonates strongly in public debt management. If the U.S. were to refinance even a fraction of its multi-trillion-dollar obligations at 1 or 2 percent, instead of the prevailing 4 or 5 percent, it could save tens of billions annually – money that could otherwise go toward paying down principal, shoring up entitlement programs, or funding crucial infrastructure.
Here's how Bit Bonds could stack up relative to other fixed-income products:
How Bit Bonds stack up against other fixed income products.
Most people who buy bonds are looking for predictability. Bit Bonds provide a route to wealth protection by transforming a portion of a conservative holding into a high-upside play. In a typical balanced portfolio, bonds deliver predictable cash flow – crucial for pensions, retirees, and risk-averse institutions. Bit Bonds, by contrast, will not generate much immediate cash flow. Instead, they hold the promise of large gains if bitcoin outperforms, with downside protection. For many cautious investors, this arrangement could be a more palatable introduction to bitcoin than buying it outright. By securing the guarantee of repayment from the Treasury, the risk of total loss is removed. If bitcoin deflates, the bond still repays principal plus a small coupon. If bitcoin surges, the holder reaps a portion of that windfall.
The U.S. government's debt profile has become a near-constant worry for budget hawks. Trillion-dollar deficits are no longer shocking, and interest expense alone is hovering around record levels. With the Federal Reserve's moves pushing rates higher, rolling over existing obligations gets expensive in a hurry. Bit Bonds offer one potential relief valve. By committing a slice of each new bond issuance to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Treasury can entice global investors to accept lower coupons. Over the term of the bonds, that helps the government shrink its annual interest payments – a benefit that scales with issuance volume. Meanwhile, any appreciation in bitcoin that the government retains could be used to retire principal. Unlike gold, which historically appreciates slowly, bitcoin has often doubled or tripled in a single market cycle, making the payoff for government reserves potentially enormous.
The structure works because of the asymmetry involved. The worst that can happen is that bitcoin doesn't rise – in which case the government ends up paying a lower coupon than a standard bond would require, but sees no large upside. Even then, that might still be a net positive if the interest saved on the coupon surpasses the lost investment in bitcoin. Seen in this light, the gamble is not purely a roll of the dice. Instead, it can be designed so the reduction in coupon payments offsets a mediocre or even negative performance from bitcoin. That doesn't mean the entire program is free of risk, but it undercuts the narrative that Bit Bonds would be reckless speculation. Traditional finance uses structured products all the time, pairing a conservative bond with a more aggressive asset or derivative. Bit Bonds simply bring that principle to a sovereign debt instrument.
For individuals, such a bond could reshape how they view their savings. Historically, anyone wanting a shot at bitcoin-like upside would have to buy bitcoin outright, invest in bitcoin mining companies, or dabble in more volatile assets. That can be daunting for those wary of unregulated exchanges, self-custody responsibilities, and price crashes. A Bit Bond bypasses these hurdles by presenting the opportunity in a familiar format – a government security. This approach might appeal to a subset of investors who believe that bitcoin will continue to appreciate, but prefer having a nominal floor under their investment. The trade-off, of course, is that the bond's coupon is lower than what one would earn in a typical fixed-income market.
Consider a bond with a face value of $100 and a 10-year maturity. The bond allocates $10 to bitcoin at the start, leaving $90 to fund government spending or repayment of other obligations. If bitcoin doubles over the period, that $10 becomes $20, and the holder might end up with a $110 total value in addition to a small coupon over time. If bitcoin rises 10-fold, that payoff grows dramatically. Conversely, if bitcoin stagnates, the holder might be left with only a marginally better return than a savings account. This possibility of high upside combined with baseline security has drawn comparisons to convertible bonds – a well-known hybrid that allows a holder to convert a bond into equity if a stock rallies above a certain threshold.
Assumes 10% of the bond principal is allocated to bitcoin. The government and the bondholder split ... More any bitcoin gains 50–50. For example, if the $10 in BTC grows to $50, the total $40 gain is divided equally; the investor keeps $20 plus the original $10 allocated to BTC, yielding $130 at maturity when combined with $100 in principal. The 10-year total then adds the $10 of coupon payments (1% per year for a $100 face). Annual returns (IRRs) are approximate and assume holding to maturity.
Scenarios involving large amounts of issuance, such as $2 trillion, shine a light on the broader policy implications. The interest savings on such a massive sum can approach $700 billion over 10 years, even accounting for the cost of buying the bitcoin. If bitcoin performs well, Treasury's retained share of the upside can further reduce debt levels in an almost self-financing mechanism. Government accountants, therefore, face a fascinating cost-benefit tradeoff. With a diminishing real yield on plain treasuries, a strategic pivot to Bit Bonds might even influence how investors worldwide view dollar-denominated debt. If enough global capital sees Bit Bonds as the best of both worlds – a U.S. credit guarantee plus bitcoin's potential – the demand could send ripple effects through the entire debt market, suppressing yields for non-Bit Bond Treasuries as well.
From an institutional standpoint, Bit Bonds can serve as a risk-managed approach to bitcoin exposure. Pension funds, insurers, and endowments often want to explore alternative assets but feel constrained by regulations or perceived volatility. If the rating agencies and regulators classify Bit Bonds as risk-free or near risk-free because the principal is sovereign-backed, these institutions might be able to deploy significant capital into them. That would, of course, build momentum and further validate the idea. With every new investor, Bit Bonds gain liquidity, and their pricing becomes more transparent. Eventually, a robust market could form around them, complete with derivatives that strip out the bitcoin component or add leverage on top of it.
At a time when the federal deficit soars into the trillions and consensus about fiscal restraint seems elusive, harnessing bitcoin's historical growth trajectory to alleviate interest burdens and chip away at the principal offers a disruptive idea that may prove too alluring for policymakers to ignore. If structured correctly, the government's downside remains limited to the capital allocated to bitcoin, and that downside is counterbalanced by the billions in interest savings. The upside, conversely, carries no explicit limit. If bitcoin grows another 5x or 10x in the coming decade, Treasury might gain a windfall that could reshape entitlement programs or invest in critical initiatives without resorting to higher taxes.
For investors, Bit Bonds deliver a path to modestly participate in bitcoin without the usual risks of loss or custody challenges. Although a 1 percent coupon is meager, that nominal yield functions as a floor. Bondholders can benefit from the dynamic of an appreciating scarce asset, a proposition that resembles an embedded derivative. Even cautious investors might view that as a valuable diversification tool, sitting between the extremes of fiat savings and direct bitcoin speculation. While bitcoin will likely continue to spark intense debate, Bit Bonds encourage a pragmatic alignment between a recognized store of value and a government's quest to manage its liabilities.
The Bit Bond concept opens a new frontier in public finance where sovereign wealth meets a neutral, internationally-recognized monetary medium. Whether that union truly alters America's fiscal destiny remains uncertain. But it's not hard to imagine that, in a decade or two, people might look back on Bit Bonds as a significant moment when the world's leading economic power took a fresh and potentially revolutionary approach to managing its debt in the age of digital money.