Codesa 2 has many agendas to fill
The original Codesa achieved its aim of shepherding the country to democracy, but it definitely left unfinished business.
The list of 'eminent persons' who will 'champion and guide' President Cyril Ramaphosa's national dialogue reads like a 'Who's Who' of this country's 'nice people'.
Lest that sound a little cynical, we will acknowledge that the delegates to this 'national convention' do seem the types who can put petty party politics aside and make the future of the country their priority.
They come from across the spectrum of South African life, from Springbok captain Siya Kolisi, to Gift of the Givers founder Dr Imtiaz Sooliman and will, presumably, bring a broad range of opinions to the debate.
What we're not getting are loudmouth politicians like Julius Malema, who have quickly dismissed Ramaphosa's idea as a form of political theatre.
Now that can be good – because the extremist views will be absent or at least muted – or bad – because, like it or not, populist politicians who like to sound radical or revolutionary do have appeal for a mass market.
ALSO READ: Ramaphosa announces 'Eminent Persons Group' to guide national dialogue – These are the people appointed
Some are billing the gathering – in both positive and negative senses – as 'Codesa 2' in reference to the original Codesa (the Convention for a Democratic South Africa), which helped steer the country to democracy after long and arduous talks in the 1990s.
The original Codesa achieved its aim of shepherding the country to democracy, but it definitely left unfinished business – such as the issue of land – which have returned to haunt South Africa.
If this Codesa 2 is to succeed, however, it must, this time around, give more attention to the hopes and fears of the black majority, rather than reassuring whites that everything will be fine in the future.
As it was in the 1990s, right-wingers are the fly in the ointment, with their revved-up aims to achieve 'de-centralisation' and 'self-government'.
The national convention has to satisfy multiple different constituencies. And that won't be easy.
NOW READ: Ramaphosa urges caution as floods claims lives in Eastern Cape
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Daily Maverick
7 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
A discussion about the coloured community and other conversation-stoppers
Against my better judgement, I stepped into a discussion on social media. It was one of those discussions that is marked by conversation-stoppers, deflections and presentations of innocence that is so de rigueur in South African society. It was a discussion about actual or perceived marginalisation of the coloured community in South Africa. This is a country built on decades of racism, but there are no racists. It is a country where citizens compare miseries, where individuals or groups of individuals attempt, constantly, to outmanoeuvre one another in the races to show who is or has been most persecuted, whose persecution matters most, and where the country's myriad problems are explained by monocausal simplicities and convenience. None of these is, of course, unique to South Africa. Conversation-stoppers are swung about like a rapier, slashing, and killing conversations, dead. You may say, for instance, that there may be a reason why people are opposed to your (Caligulan) brutality and cruelty, and the conversation-stopper is that you harbour an ancient hatred of the cruel brute and his people caught in flagrante delicto, so you cannot, possibly be intellectually honest. You may say that someone is wilfully marginalised through some biblical punishment where the sins of the fathers shall be visited upon the children. The deflection is slipped in; the children have been and will always be guilty, and exploit their intergenerational privileges, which, in some ways, may well be true. As a former colleague said after I admonished her for abusing a (white) child of about six or seven running through the newsroom: 'A snake gives birth to a snake.' This logic – hard to dispute the snake-gives-birth-to-a-snake, or kill them in infancy before they kill you – has been applied to present-day conflicts where innocent children are being killed almost daily. If I have not made it clear previously, I should do it again, here: I don't particularly care for identity politics or race-based politics, and I am not a specialist of coloured politics… there are people who, I am sure, are better placed for this purpose. All of this does not make me blind to the way privileges, powers and influences are handed down to successive generations, and how later generations will conspire to protect such privileges. It is an empirically verifiable fact that power and influence, privileges and benefits (the various forms of capital, political, financial, social or symbolic) accumulated over more than 300 years do not evaporate within 30 years… it is power and privilege that is vertically segmented. We speak, in this respect, about the 'development thesis' in terms of which powers, material and otherwise (ownership of property, development of technology and knowledge production, in general), tend to develop over time and become more powerful. When these powers are under threat, or even questioned rhetorically, those who wield the power feel 'uncomfortable', or 'fragile', and egads! they cry persecution, injustice and oppression, conveniently forgetting their (historical) roles and functions in getting us to where we are. Coloured community concerns and the deflection Let's leave all that as a backdrop, and return to my brief foray into the discussion of the coloured community I mentioned above. First, I should set out those nasty racial classifications, definitions and conceptions of purity and belonging. I refer hereafter to black people to exclude those South Africans who are classified coloured, and considered to be 'not black enough' or 'non-African'. Again, my personal identity affiliations or lack thereof (political, racial, ethnic or cultural) are set aside. The conversation I refer to went something like this: A coloured guy stands up and explains that the coloured community is marginalised, especially in the Western Cape. Also in Panayaza Lesufi's Gauteng, it should be said, and all of which makes a nonsense of the non-racialism that we fought for in South Africa. Before the topic of actual or perceived marginalisation is even considered, the host of the discussion deflects and asks why the coloured community persists with their coloured identity. Absent are the facts that the Afrikaner nationalists created the vile and contemptible racial classification system, and the African nationalists have simply adopted what has always been a vile and contemptible racial classification system. Those are just the facts. The Afrikaner nationalists may tell us that they meant well. I am absolutely sure that the African nationalists have only the best interests of South Africa in mind. That's the thing about oppressive or unjust regimes: Joseph Stalin or Pol Pot did not say they were going to kill millions of people. Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler did not say, up front, that they would be responsible for the death of more than 100 million people in Europe. (See this essay by my favourite 20th-century historian, Eric Hobsbawm) They meant well, no? The National Party (Afrikaner nationalist) and the ANC (African nationalists) would proclaim innocence, to be sure. Julius Malema's ethno-nationalism of a particular kind, where those people whom he considers to be non-African don't matter and don't belong. His staunchest of followers would tell you, I am sure, that he means well… Coloured community concerns and denials, and counter-accusations It's marvellous to behold. Frightening is probably a better word, but never mind. Criminal organisations or unjust regimes have at least one thing in common. Privileged people who are reminded of their ill-begotten status and the forms of capital mentioned above, have the same habit. Deny everything (we are not racist), admit nothing (we worked hard for our money) and make counter-accusations (you're racist/reverse racist). Before seriously considering the cries of the coloured community's leaders, the counter-accusation (a veritable conversation-stopper) is that coloured people are racist, and have always been racist towards black people. It does not help, of course, that very many coloured people have shimmied up to the party of white settlers, the DA, as they did to the National Party with the Tricameral Parliament. If we accept that more than one thing can be true at the same time – that the coloured community has been left behind in whatever resembles a peace and prosperity dividend of the democratic era, and that coloured people have shimmied up to the illiberal, undemocratic and unjust forces in the country – the least one can do is listen, and look at the evidence. Instead, when coloured groups raise issues of crime, disproportionate incarceration, unemployment, drug abuse (all social problems that stem from poverty and alienation), the black African response is: well, coloureds are racist, or they (themselves) reproduce myths about being coloured, when the African nationalists actually reinvoked and reapplied the vile and contemptible racial classification system – because the higher you are on the scale of racial superiority, the more money there is to be made. For instance, when the Dutch, then British, and then Settler Colonialists (during the Afrikaner nationalist era) placed and kept whites on the top rung, they reaped the benefits of everything; from the proceeds of gold and diamonds, to agriculture and education, which helps explain the development thesis referred to above. The main problem, the way I see it, is that in this great-tjank – everyone is in tears about being persecuted and we're in a state of national paralysis – claims of eternal innocence give one group a monopoly on persecution (they have been the most persecuted in history), and gives that group a free reign with meting out punishment (everyone else must suffer biblical punishment and, anyway, a snake gives birth to a snake), and nobody can be as innocent as the ones who claim eternal innocence, and nobody can be innocent enough. As a pessimist, I don't expect things to get any better for the coloured community. This is quite apart from declinism, although it is profoundly Panglossian to be positive. I will leave one example. Somewhere in the Northern Cape, somewhere between Springbok and Upington, there is a black man working on a farm. Once he got a job on the farm, he brought his family from Mpumalanga. Now, let me be clear. As much as South Africa belongs to everyone who lives in it, people are free to move around the country as they wish! Now, that man from Mpumalanga was employed after a coloured man from the area was replaced because black economic empowerment and affirmative action policies (according to the farmer) awards more points for employing a 'black African' as opposed to a coloured. The first problem with this is that the area has been predominantly coloured/Khoi/San for centuries. The ANC has had a policy of converting every corner of the country to reflect the demographics of South Africa; in other words, if, as Jimmy Manyi said when he was still in the ANC and a government spokesperson, coloureds are overconcentrated in any particular region, that had to be changed 'to reflect the demographics of South Africa'. This means that if there happens to be a street in which coloured people are in the majority, as in most of the Northern Cape, that has to change to the point where the street represents the approximately 80% of 'black Africans' in the country. It does not end on the streets of townships. I shan't complain, but I was told that I should forget about applying for an academic post at UCT as it would be futile, because the institution would rather employ a 'real African' from any of the 54 states on the continent than a coloured person. All told, the great-tjank has made us all wrestle over who has been most persecuted, who faces the most injustice and who has the right to mete out punishment, because, you know, a snake gives birth to a snake and at the extremes you must kill a baby before the baby grows up and kills you.
Daily Maverick
7 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Ramaphosa extols green hydrogen as future driver of Africa-wide growth
President Ramaphosa on Thursday championed green hydrogen as Africa's future, but can the continent's ambitious dream overcome the reality of prohibitive costs and a risk-averse international financial regimen? 'Africa is uniquely positioned to become a major player in green hydrogen because it has abundant renewable resources that manifest themselves in high solar irradiation, strong winds and hydropower potential,' said President Cyril Ramaphosa. He was speaking at what was once called the South Africa Green Hydrogen Summit, now positioned as the Africa Green Hydrogen Summit, in Cape Town on Thursday. 'The vast land of our continent lends itself to large-scale renewable energy projects. We are therefore perfectly placed to leverage the global shift towards cleaner energy sources for our collective advantage as the entire continent. 'Green hydrogen is a way to marry our continent's mineral riches with our renewable energy endowments to decarbonise particularly heavy industries, to create jobs, to stimulate investment and to unlock inclusive growth across the various borders,' said Ramaphosa. Green hydrogen is produced by using renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power to split water into hydrogen and oxygen through a process called electrolysis. This hydrogen can then be used as an emission-free energy source and carrier for applications such as fuel cells or industrial processes, and is seen as being key to decarbonising 'hard-to-abate' or 'hard-to-electrify' sectors such as long-haul transport, chemicals, and iron and steel. Green hydrogen is of particular interest in South Africa because of the country's strategic advantages. The independent non-profit economic research institution Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies says that 'South Africa's rich endowment of ideal weather conditions for solar and wind-power generation, technological capabilities around the Fischer-Tropsch process, and access to platinum resources place the country at an advantage for developing the hydrogen value chain and being a key supplier into the global hydrogen market.' Ramaphosa noted that more than 52 large-scale green hydrogen projects had been launched across the continent, including in South Africa. 'To date, South Africa has invested more than R1.5-billion in our Hydrogen South Africa programme,' he said. Yet despite the President's bullishness, the reality of green hydrogen projects in South Africa and beyond paints a more complex picture. Daily Maverick reported in April that Namibia's HyIron Oshivela plant successfully produced green hydrogen for the first time, giving South Africa's neighbour to the northwest the lead in its implementation of its green hydrogen-related plans. South Africa's Hydrogen Society Roadmap, adopted in 2021, outlines an ambitious vision. While the initiative — which includes plans for a Hydrogen Valley industrial cluster and the Boegoebaai project in the Northern Cape — is substantial on paper, its implementation has lagged significantly behind Namibia's. Pilot project A pilot project in Sasolburg is producing green hydrogen for domestic use, and the Koega green ammonia project in the Eastern Cape is 'at an advanced planning stage' for four additional flagship hydrogen projects, said Ramaphosa on Thursday. Beyond suboptimal implementation, there are also complications, which Ramaphosa duly acknowledged. Chief among them: cost. 'We are very much alive to the reality that green hydrogen production faces a number of challenges. There is the cost factor. Capital intensity and the high costs of financing are significant barriers, as is the cost of green hydrogen relative to other energy sources such as natural gas, for instance,' he said. Earlier this year, Daily Maverick was told that the ambitious plan to produce 'green steel' in the Freeport Saldanha industrial zone had been shelved, with Sasol and ArcelorMittal citing high costs and shifting priorities. Globally, the steel industry is responsible for roughly 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year, which is about 8% of global emissions. When the conventional coal-fired blast furnaces are replaced with ones that run on carbon emission-free green hydrogen, the steel that is produced is, accordingly, considered green steel. The difficulties in realising green hydrogen projects are shared internationally. A study published in the journal Nature Energy earlier this year, which tracked 190 projects over three years, found that by 2023 only 7% of the announced green hydrogen production globally had been realised. A large part of the reason is renewable energy and electrolyser costs. Lack of competitiveness A Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research researcher and the lead author of that study, Adrian Odenweller, as well as co-author Falko Ueckerdt, said: 'Green hydrogen will continue to have difficulties meeting the high expectations in the future due to a lack of competitiveness.' The Just Energy Transition Project Management Unit in the Presidency and the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa previously confirmed as much with Daily Maverick, explaining: 'Currently, grey hydrogen (from steam reformation of methane gas) costs $1.50/kg to produce. Green hydrogen produced via electrolysis of water using renewables-generated electricity costs $5 to $6/kg. Approximately 60% of this cost is for electricity, 30% for electrolysers and 10% for transport, storage and other externalities. 'So, a reduction in price depends very much on renewable electricity generating costs falling still further. Additionally, the appropriate pricing of carbon taxes is another factor that will contribute to project viability. 'The costs of green electricity and of electrolysers will reduce, but not overnight. Furthermore, penalties in key global markets on goods produced using non-green technologies are ramping up over the next decade. We can anticipate that the right price point will be reached within the next few years. 'Based on the downward price trajectory of renewable energy and electrolyser costs, it has been projected that South Africa will reach $1.50/kg by 2037.' Speaking at the summit on Thursday, Energy and Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said, 'Africa's choice is whether to be a passive site of resource extraction or a proactive architect of the green energy economy. 'With the right policy framework, investment enablers and regional coordination, green hydrogen can and must be [the] backbone of a new African industrial era. 'South Africa's approach to green hydrogen is not aspirational, it is deliberate, structured and already under way. As a country, we have a clear choice to develop hydrogen not just as a climate response but as a catalyst for reindustrialisation, economic transformation, regional competitiveness and energy sovereignty,' said Ramokgopa. DM
Daily Maverick
7 hours ago
- Daily Maverick
Rebuilding trust — the imperative of the National Dialogue for SA's future
President Cyril Ramaphosa's recent announcement on the National Dialogue marks a defining moment in South Africa's democratic journey, because in a country such as South Africa where the public's trust in its institutions is wavering, where structural inequality remains entrenched and where social cohesion is fraying, the proposed dialogue offers more than just a political tool to pacify the electorate. Instead, it offers a necessary intervention to rebuild and restore the national soul. Encouragingly, the approach announced by the President reflects a meaningful convergence with the Inclusive Society Institute's vision as outlined in its publication, The National Dialogue – Pathway to a People's Plan for South Africa. Why the National Dialogue is necessary It is fair to say that South Africa is in crisis. This is not mere rhetoric, it is grounded in evidence. The Inclusive Society Institute's South African Social Cohesion Index paints a sobering picture: Respect for social rules stands at just 36.6 out of 100; Acceptance of diversity scores only 46.8; Trust in government institutions is a fragile 47.9; and Perceived fairness in the distribution of resources is an alarming 42.7. These are not just numbers. They reflect broken trust, frayed communities and a growing distance between citizens and the state. Add to this the reality that South Africa's economy has stagnated at around 1% GDP growth, far below the level required to reverse unemployment trends, and the urgency becomes clear. With unemployment (under the expanded definition) above 40%, economists agree that at least 3% sustained GDP growth is needed to hold the line and 4% or more to begin reversing the trend. In this fragile landscape, inaction is not neutral, it is costly. It is measured in missed opportunities, in disillusioned youth, in empty plates and stunted potential. And the people? They have been patient. Too patient. For years, they have waited with quiet dignity for the promise of democracy to deliver the fair, just and inclusive society they were told was possible. They do not ask for perfection. But they deserve progress. The case for social cohesion as economic foundation This is why the Inclusive Society Institute will bring to the National Dialogue table a central message: enhancing social cohesion is not optional, it is foundational. Across the world, empirical studies consistently show that societies with higher levels of cohesion tend to experience stronger, more inclusive economic performance. Cohesion fosters trust, which builds confidence, which in turn attracts investment and stimulates productivity. South Africa's history offers proof. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, when our social compact was strong and our democratic project broadly shared, GDP growth peaked at 6%, jobs were created and a growing middle class emerged. As that cohesion fractured, eroded by inequality, corruption and disillusionment, so too did economic momentum falter. Social and economic renewal must go hand in hand. A welcome alignment in approach The Inclusive Society Institute's framework for the dialogue calls for a broad-based, people-driven process. It is rooted in the belief that solutions must be co-created by the people, not merely for them. Inspired by the spirit of the Freedom Charter and the democratic architecture of Codesa, the institute envisions a structured, participatory dialogue culminating in a People's Plan for South Africa, a new social contract borne out of inclusive, honest deliberation. It is therefore welcome that the President's announcement mirrors many of these principles. He emphasised that the dialogue will not be a once-off event, but a months-long national process. It will reach every community, every sector, from business to labour, from religious organisations to the arts, from civil society to youth. Crucially, the process will not be led by government. It will be guided by a panel of eminent persons, with the secretariat based at Nedlac to ensure multistakeholder integrity. Government will be but one participant, preparing its input under the coordination of the deputy president. This rebalancing of power – from state-led to society-wide – is not just symbolically important. It is practically essential. South Africa needs shared leadership to rebuild a shared future. The Inclusive Society Institute's planned contribution The Inclusive Society Institute will participate in the dialogue by putting forward a focused and strategic proposition: South Africa must prioritise growing the economy über alles – above all else. But this growth must be inclusive, sustainable and underpinned by social stability. The institute will argue that economic growth and social cohesion are not sequential objectives, but simultaneous imperatives. No economy can flourish amid deep division and mistrust. No social fabric can remain intact when people are locked out of opportunity. The institute will, in its contribution to the dialogue, make the case that rebuilding trust, reducing inequality and fostering unity are essential preconditions for economic renewal. These are not abstract ideals, they are necessary investments in the nation's future. From shared vision to tangible results While some operational differences remain, the institute, for example, recommends an even more structured national convention model – the philosophical alignment between the President's announcement and the institute's vision is strong. Both acknowledge that this process must be inclusive, transparent and people-owned. Both accept that reform must begin with honest listening and shared purpose. Yet ideas alone are not enough. What matters now is execution. The process must avoid becoming a ceremonial talk shop. It must penetrate local communities, reflect real voices and translate dialogue into decisions. The test will not be the size of the platform, but the impact of the outcomes. A country worth rebuilding together South Africa is wounded, but not defeated. The people have waited. But the wait must end. The cost of further delay is measured in human suffering, in missed schooling, in breadlines, in lost dignity. The promise of democracy must not be something always deferred, always just over the horizon. And here is the truth: if we act now, if we take this process seriously and put shoulder to the wheel, it is not too late. This country can be fixed. The values of 1994 are not dead, they are dormant, waiting to be rekindled. But it will take courage. It will take humility. It will take us – all of us – committing to a national dialogue not as a political project, but as a moral imperative. Let this not be another conversation about the people. Let it be a conversation with the people, by the people, for the people, so that the dream of a just, inclusive and cohesive South Africa can finally begin to take shape. DM
