Stefanik leads theoretical Republican primary for governor in latest statewide poll

Yahoo

21-05-2025

May 20—Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul is holding steady with her middle-of-the-road poll numbers, while Rep. Elise M. Stefanik, R-Schuylerville, has rocketed to the top of the pack for potential Republican challengers for governor next year, according to the latest Siena College Research Institute poll.
The SCRI poll released Tuesday has Hochul's favorability rating holding at 44% positive, 46% negative, only a slight change from last month when she had a 44% positive, 43% negative rating. Her job approval ratings are similar, with 50% of voters holding a positive view and 46% with a negative one, compared to last months 48% positive, 45% negative rating.
Voters widely don't want to reelect Hochul according to the poll, with only 36% saying they want Hochul to keep the job compared to 55% who say they want "someone else." That's a steep drop from April, when 39% wanted Hochul re-elected and 48% didn't.
The election is just over 17 months out, and a lot can change as the campaigns heat up early next year.
In a theoretical primary, 46% of Democrats support Hochul compared to 12% who support Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and 10% who support Rep. Ritchie J. Torres, D-Bronx. Neither Delgado nor Torres have signaled a primary challenge to Hochul, although Delgado has hinted he may be considering it.
In the theoretical Republican primary, Stefanik carries support from 35% of voters compared to 22% for Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler and 11% for Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman. Lawler and Blakeman have hinted at potential runs for the governorship for months, while Stefanik only joined the pack last month after her bid to become the next United Nations ambassador was scuttled.
"When asking Republicans who they want to see as their gubernatorial nominee next year, Stefanik is their early frontrunner, with a small double-digit lead over her downstate colleague, Lawler, and Blakeman, with barely double-digit support, trailing badly. When Stefanik was not included last month, Blakeman had a narrow 6-point lead over Lawler," SCRI pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Greenberg noted that Stefanik has a negative favorability rating, with 35% of New Yorkers reporting a poor opinion of her compared to 25% with a positive opinion. A larger proportion, 40%, don't know who Stefanik is or have no opinion of her. Among Republicans, Stefanik carries a 45% positive, 22% negative favorability rating, with 33% of people reporting no knowledge or opinion of her.
The SCRI poll also touched on some recently settled issues in the state budget process, which was passed earlier this month. According to the poll, there's majority or plurality support for a majority of the policy issues included in the state spending plan. A majority of voters support the inclusion of a provision to make it easier for customers to cancel subscriptions, the expansion of free school lunch and breakfast to all public school students, and the statewide ban on cellphone use in schools.
A plurality — not a majority — support the "Inflation Refund Checks" that will be sent out later this year to most New Yorkers, the extension of emergency budget cut power to the governor if the federal government makes major cuts, and the decision to budget $10 million for Attorney General Letitia A. James to defend against federal charges of mortgage fraud.
Voters are evenly split on one issue — the decision to pay back the state's roughly $8 billion federal unemployment debt with state money, a debt that has been being slowly repaid by extra unemployment insurance costs for businesses. On that issue, voters are evenly split 38% to 38%, with a plurality of Republicans and independents supporting the move and a plurality of Democrats opposed.
Including moves like the expanded child tax credit and a delayed middle-class tax cut, a small majority of New Yorkers think this year's state spending plan will help to make New York at least somewhat more affordable. Some 15% of voters said the state will be a lot more affordable, 37% said it'll be somewhat more affordable, 26% said it won't make a significant difference and 17% said it'll make no difference at all. Opinions are split distinctly by party affiliation.
"Nearly two-thirds of Democrats think the recently passed budget will make New York at least somewhat more affordable, and by a nearly two-to-one margin, Democrats think the budget will make life better for everyday New Yorkers," Greenberg said. "On the other hand, a majority of Republicans and independents say the budget's impact on affordability is not very much, if at all. By three-to-one, Republicans say the 'bloated budget' doesn't address New Yorkers' real needs, and a plurality of independents agree with them."
At the federal level, President Donald J. Trump continues to be unpopular with much of the state's voting base. His overall approval rating is 40% positive, 57% negative, and is split heavily by party with 81% of Democrats disapproving of the job he is doing and 82% of Republicans approving.
On the issues of immigration, the Russia-Ukraine war, the economy, upholding the American reputation, inflation and trade, a majority of voters say Trump is doing a poor job, between 52% and 59% for each.
Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., now the most senior elected Democrat as the Senate minority leader, only slightly improved his worst-ever approval ratings from last month, with 42% of voters saying they have a good view of him to 48% who disapprove of him in this latest poll.
This SCRI poll was conducted between May 12 and 15, reaching 805 respondents by landline, cellphone and an online polling panel. The margin of error is 4.3% in either direction.