The age of unpopularity
Last September, just two months after Labour's election, Keir Starmer declared that his government was 'going to have to be unpopular'. That has proved to be one of the Prime Minister's safer predictions. Earlier this week Labour achieved another unwelcome milestone: its net approval rating fell to -56, matching the level recorded by the Conservatives just before the 2024 election.
Some will conclude from this that the government can simply do no right in the eyes of a disillusioned electorate. But this isn't quite true. Polling by More in Common shows that policies such as the Ukraine negotiations, the minimum wage increase, the Renters' Rights Bill and the sewage bill are both popular and salient. For the public, however, these are far eclipsed by failures such as the winter fuel payment cuts, an excessively gloomy narrative and a lack of clear purpose.
Yet it isn't only Labour's descent into unpopularity that is striking – British politics is defined by it. Not one of the current party leaders enjoys a positive approval rating according to YouGov. Nigel Farage, the man cast as an electoral pied piper, is almost as unpopular as the becalmed Kemi Badenoch. Jeremy Corbyn, the insurgent eyeing a second coming, is still more unpopular than both. Ed Davey emerges as the most popular leader but he is flattered by his greater obscurity: 38 per cent of voters don't have an opinion on him.
Though Reform now comfortably leads among every pollster, this is some way short of a truly popular revolt. Back in 1981, the SDP-Liberal Alliance, invoked again in recent months, once achieved a rating of 50.5 per cent; Reform is currently averaging 29 per cent.
What we are witnessing, in short, is a war of the weak. Labour is an unpopular incumbent and the Tories an unforgiven opposition. Farage and Corbyn are daring but divisive (both, with telling symmetry, are disliked by 61 per cent of the electorate).
Who wins in this strange new universe? Pollsters and commentators have traditionally defined British elections as a battle for the 'centre ground'. Swing voters – who would oscillate between the Conservatives and Labour – were prized above all.
But this conventional fight, some in Westminster argue, has now been supplanted by another. A private polling presentation by Stack Data Strategy – co-founded by Ameet Gill, a former strategist to David Cameron – instead frames British politics as a struggle between left and right coalitions. In an era when the winning post is closer to 30 per cent than 40 per cent, the side which triumphs will be that which best preserves its base.
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The risk for Labour is that while the right-wing vote consolidates around Reform, the left-wing vote fragments. Since the general election, Farage has won over almost a third of 2024 Tories (29 per cent). Labour, meanwhile, has shed votes to the Lib Dems (13 per cent) and the Greens (9 per cent). A new left party, already polling as high as 15 per cent in some surveys, threatens only to maximise this disunity.
How does Labour prevent this trend giving Farage an electoral shortcut to No 10? It's a question Starmer will soon need to show his party he has an answer to.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: What the Bell Hotel closure reveals about the asylum housing stalemate]
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ITV News
a minute ago
- ITV News
People 'glamourise' migrant hotels, refugee tells ITV News
Sami Gichki was in the asylum system for 12 and a half years. He initially travelled from Balochistan in Pakistan to the UK aged ten with his parents. While he only spent a month in hotel accommodation in 2013, he sympathises with people who are now spending long stints in temporary conditions. "I think often people glamourise the fact that asylum seekers are living in hotels, but it's not the same sense as in a hotel you go to when you're going on holiday," he said. "You are restricted, there are curfews around what time you can be in, what time you can go out, what people can actually visit you, about what you eat. "It's basically just sitting there like a sitting duck, waiting for the Home Office to give you status." The number of asylum seekers living in UK hotels has risen by 8% under Labour, compared to the same point last year, despite falling slightly since March 2025, according to Home Office figures. The data is part of the usual quarterly immigration statistics and covers Labour's first year in office. It shows 32,059 asylum seekers were in UK hotels by the end of June. The new figures come days after a court ruled that more than 100 asylum seekers staying at a hotel in Essex should be removed after the local council brought a legal case. "I think as a society we have become so polarised," Sami told ITV News. "So when I see in the news things around the Epping Hotel and the court saying that asylum seekers should not be housed there, my initial thoughts are, yes, I agree they should not be housed there. "They should be housed in permanent housing with agency and be able to rebuild their lives in a way that is meaningful for them, but also gives them that sense of dignity and purpose and respect that. "These places can be quite isolating and they're very disconnected from services or places. "For example, they don't have access to medical healthcare properly because of the inability to access a GP, because of not having a permanent address, not being able to go to schools in the same way that most people do, just because of not having access to a permanent address. "Things like this become real barriers to people and their livelihoods." 'I ended up being quite suicidal' Sami went to school until he was 18, but then would have needed scholarships to go to university. This left him unable to work but also unable to study, which had a huge impact on his mental health. "I was in the state where after sixth form, I really struggled with my mental health, ended up in the space where I didn't really want to be here, and I ended up being quite suicidal until I started getting support after a year and a half through mental health services," he said. It was only when he ended up in A&E that he was able to get support. He was pointed towards Manchester Cathedral and a running charity, both of which helped him - he then ran in the London Marathon on his 20th birthday. Sami has said that his good English has helped his progress through the asylum system - even though it has still been very long. "The judgement that comes from being in an asylum process is... decreased by a large scale. If someone does not speak English... I have seen how people are treated completely differently in my circumstances," he said. But ultimately, Sami says it is the "imbalance of power" that really affects people arriving in the UK. "Even though there might not be direct consequences for some seekers and refugees, I think just being in the system and waiting for so long and that uncertainty can really affect you and impact your mental health like it did for me," he said. Sami eventually got refugee status earlier this year - he separated his claim from his family's and is allowed to stay in the UK because of his sexuality and the risk of political persecution if he was forced to return to Pakistan. 'Everything fell apart' Abdul has been in the UK for just over three years after travelling from Sierra Leone in 2023. He is staying in shared accommodation in Stockton provided by the Home Office. He has been there for around a year and said he had previously been living elsewhere but was moved because of faults with the building. Abdul is not allowed to work because he does not have a permit. He said this was because of difficulties with his solicitor. "Everything fell apart," he said. "I don't like wasting time without creating anything within yourself, the community, the country." Back in Sierra Leone he had lots of areas of expertise - football, refereeing and athletics coaching, as well as basic knowledge of construction, and health and social care. "With all this knowledge, sitting on the couch, without getting any form of job... It's really, really devastating," he said. While he is not allowed to work he is dependent on the money he receives from the Home Office every week. In the meantime, he is trying to make the most of his time. He described voluntary coaching as his "backbone" now, as it is the only thing he still does that he used to do at home. "There are so many volunteering activities that I've been doing now because that's the only thing that will do to let me... reclaim myself. To increase value, to create more impact within the community." "For my name to be written within the community - I want to feel proud of that," he added. Abdul won an award last year for his volunteering work in the community. It recognised his horticulture work in the area as well as his sports coaching efforts. "That was one of the greatest achievements... I'm happy I got that achievement because it's within the community and based on what I have doing the community," he said. Abdul has no idea how long he might spend in his current accommodation and does not know how long his asylum seeker process will take. 'You feel sad and discouraged' Anti-immigration protests have erupted across England, typically in areas that house asylum seekers in hotels. Abdul said those protests have an impact on asylum seekers. "Of course protests... on that issue are not normally friendly ... All this protesting is not good within the community ... Protesting has some, let me say, negative response on the individual," he said. "You feel sad, you feel a little bit discouraged based on the situation," he added. He asked people to "pardon" those who live in accommodation provided by the Home Office. "You might want to get out of that particular situation, but it's not in your own power to do it, it's in the power of the Home Office to make sure that your pending situation is being amended and you're being moved on to the next level," he said. "So, I would say to them to pardon us, based on our situations. It is not a situation that we created, we don't want to be part of it, but it happened," he added. More people living in hotels Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation, known as contingency accommodation, if they are awaiting assessment of their claim or have had a claim approved and there is not enough longer-term accommodation available. When there is not enough housing, the Home Office, which has a legal obligation to provide accommodation to asylum seekers who would otherwise be destitute, can move people to alternatives such as hotels and large sites, like former military bases. Epping Forest District Council had asked a judge to issue an interim injunction stopping migrants from being accommodated at the Bell Hotel in Epping. Almost 30 councils are considering whether to take legal action or monitoring developments over asylum hotels after the Epping High Court ruling, ITV News understands. Included in the 28 local authorities considering next steps are eight Labour-run councils - placing further pressure on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's government.
Sky News
15 minutes ago
- Sky News
The latest migration stats are going in the wrong direction - and the argument might get more vicious
The UK government won't find much in this latest dump of migration data to back up its claim that it is restoring order to a broken asylum system. In a competitive field, perhaps the most damaging stat is the rising number of small boat crossings - up 38% on 12 months previously and close to the peaks of 2023. That has helped push up asylum applications to record levels, which in turn has led to a rise in the use of hotel accommodation. Deportations are up, but more than half of the total figure is foreign national offenders rather than failed asylum seekers. The backlog for initial decisions is coming down. But the approval rate for those applying for asylum after arriving on a small boat is still hovering around the 65% mark. Another bottleneck is also forming as more people appeal their initial rejections - and require accommodation while they wait for an outcome. This all helps explain why people are still taking the risk of crossing the channel in the first place. It's still highly likely that if you get to the UK, you'll be able to stay. The row over the use of hotels is a product of this underlying problem. And if you thought that argument was vicious, just wait for the one that could follow if asylum seekers start to be moved out of hotels and into houses and flats in areas that already have a shortage of homes. It's why the only real endgame for the government is to find a way to stop people coming in the first place. Increased numbers of returns, including through the UK-France deal, could provide some deterrent. 2:47 Beefed-up action to dismantle smuggling gangs and reforms to the time it takes for appeals to be heard will help too. So far though, all the figures that count are going in the wrong direction. What's more, there's some evidence that the data is looking particularly painful for Labour in some of its most vulnerable areas. A look down the list of councils with relatively high numbers of asylum seekers reveals several key election battlegrounds in the Midlands and North. These are regions where Reform is already campaigning hard. The stakes are high, and as it stands the government is being found wanting.
The Guardian
25 minutes ago
- The Guardian
I'm a legal refugee in Britain. So why am I always being treated like a criminal?
Hardly a day goes by without a new insult being hurled in the faces of asylum seekers and refugees. We're scroungers, rapists, fighting-age men who shouldn't have left our home countries. Sometimes we're simply 'illegals', the most dehumanising term of all. When did it become a crime to run for your life? The people levelling these accusations are superb at making themselves heard. Mud sticks – and most of us are too scared to try to set the record straight. I don't know how many of our accusers have sat down with us, human to human, and listened to our stories. Here's mine. I grew up in Syria. My childhood was safe and happy – idyllic when I look back at it. In 2011, the Arab spring and civil war in Syria changed everything. I was imprisoned twice for protesting against the Assad regime, but it never crossed my mind to leave. Like many young people, I never thought death would come for me. Everything changed when I was almost killed in a deadly missile attack in a suburb of Aleppo I was only 17, and I realised that I wanted to live. So I escaped. First to Turkey, and then I travelled through Europe until I reached Calais. I hoped to reach the UK for two reasons. First, my auntie and cousins live here. After my mum died when I was 14, my auntie became a second mum to me. Second, I could speak English. The thing people don't understand about refugees is how tired we are from what we have been through. All I could think about was resting and being with my auntie. I spent 10 months in Calais trying to get to Britain. It was before small boat crossings become the main method of getting here, but the smugglers were there. We all hated them because they made it more difficult for us to cross the Channel without them. I tried every way I could: lorries, cargo trains, sneaking into the port to try to conceal myself on a ferry. At that time the French police were attacking migrants, as they do now. Sometimes they would be helpful and tell us things such as what time border guards changed shift – that was the best time to try to sneak on to a train or a lorry. Sometimes we were wished good luck by French and British border force and police; some saw us as humans, some saw us as criminals. When I made it to the UK in 2017, I thought I had finally found safety, but my experience with the Home Office reminded me that I hadn't. I always felt as if I was being treated like a criminal. I was required to report to a police station regularly, and it took more than two years to get a decision on my asylum case. Government aside, in that period British society was generally more welcoming towards people such as me. I could walk down the street in one of the UK's diverse cities and blend in. I met wonderful people who always made me feel as if I belonged. Everything changed when the previous government introduced the now-cancelled Rwanda scheme. People were put in detention centres and threatened with deportation. Although I had been granted leave to remain by then, I was really scared that the government would come after me too and deport me. That fear has grown even more since the Home Office changed its policy this February: people like me who entered irregularly will now 'normally be refused citizenship'. One of the nightmares I often have is of shouting for help in the middle of the street when no one can hear me. I now feel I am living that dream. Now that I have lived in the UK for a few years, I understand the politics better. People just want someone to blame for the state of the economy and public services – and migrants and refugees are the easiest to blame. Some believe the lies about us. I work as a cinematographer and also volunteer with a charity as an Arabic interpreter. I speak to a lot of age-disputed young people who the Home Office insists are adults and have been placed in adult hotels. It is so obvious when I listen to them speak that they are children. They cry down the phone to me. They hate being in hotels, forced to share rooms with adults they don't know. Most refugees dream of returning home if it becomes safe to do so. I often think back to the secure time of my childhood. I grew up with the scents of jasmine and geranium in my garden. I have planted those things here to try to recreate a sense of home. No matter what I do here to contribute, I feel I will always be viewed as a criminal and someone at risk of being sent back to my country, however unsafe it is. Open, explicit racism seems to be on the rise in Britain. It starts with refugees like me and other migrants – but they will soon come for other people simply because they are not white, or belong to the 'wrong' religion, or their sexual orientation. Unless we act now, things are going to get worse. As told to Diane Taylor Ayman Alhussein is a Syrian film-maker based in London Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.
