Barclays switches preference to global fixed income over equities on tariff risks
Barclays said on Thursday it favors fixed income investments over equities for the first time in "several quarters" and warned global economic growth was at risk due to U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating tariff policies.
Despite hurdles such as rising prices and poor fiscal outlooks in Western economies, the risk to fixed income assets was less than to equities, Barclays analysts said in a note.
"We have been overweight global equities over fixed income for several quarters, even as valuations became stretched. But now, the policy risks strike us as tilted largely to the downside," they wrote, without saying exactly how long they had preferred equities.
Trump has imposed a swathe of tariffs on many countries, including top U.S. trading partners, with his latest move being a 25% levy on auto imports. The breadth and speed of his policies have rattled global financial markets.
So far this year, the MSCI All-Country World index , a benchmark for global equities, has risen just 0.55%, given the potential for higher tariffs to lift inflation, dent corporate profits and slow the global economy.
The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index has fared worse, sliding nearly 3%. However, benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds have rallied, with yields dropping to 4.3595% from a January 14 peak of 4.8090%.
Barclays said it expects a considerable slowdown in U.S. and global economic growth this year. While it reiterated its forecast of 1.5% U.S. GDP growth and 2.9% global growth for 2025, it included a caveat.
"If worst-case outcomes on tariffs are realized, even those forecasts may end up being too optimistic."
Barclays, on Wednesday, had slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,600 points, to 5,900 points, the lowest among Wall Street brokerages. The S&P closed at 5,712.20 on Wednesday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Gulf Business
2 hours ago
- Gulf Business
Trump reports more than $600m in income from crypto, golf, licensing fees
Image: Getty Images Donald Trump reported more than $600m in income from crypto, golf clubs, licensing and other ventures in a public financial disclosure report released on Friday that provided a glimpse of the vast business holdings of America's billionaire president. The annual financial disclosure form, which appeared to cover the 2024 calendar year, shows the president's push into crypto added substantially to his wealth but he also reported large fees from developments and revenues from his other businesses. Overall, the president reported assets worth at least $1.6bn, a Reuters calculation shows. What the financial disclosures reveal While Trump has said he has put his businesses into a trust managed by his children, the disclosures show how income from those sources still ultimately accrue to the president — something that has opened him to accusations of conflicts of interest. Some of his businesses in areas such as crypto, for example, benefit from US policy shifts under him and have become a source of criticism. 'President Trump, Vice President Vance, and senior White House staff have completed required ethics briefings and financial reporting obligations,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement to Reuters . 'The Trump Administration is committed to transparency and accessibility for the American people.' The financial disclosure was signed on June 13 and did not state the time period it covered. The details of the cryptocurrency listings, as well as other information in the disclosure, suggest it was through the end of December 2024, which would exclude most of the money raised by the family's cryptocurrency ventures. Given the speed at which the Trump family has made deals during his ascent to the presidency, the filing is already a time capsule of sorts, capturing a period when the family was just starting to get into crypto but was largely still in the world of real estate deals and golf clubs. A meme coin released earlier this year by the president —$TRUMP — alone has earned an estimated $320m in fees, although it's not publicly known how that amount has been divided between a Trump-controlled entity and its partners. In addition to the meme coin fees, the Trump family has raked in more than $400m from World Liberty Financial, a decentralised finance company. The Trump family is involved, also, with a bitcoin mining operation and digital asset exchange-traded funds. In the disclosures, Trump reported $57.35m from token sales at World Liberty. He also reported holding 15.75bn governance tokens in the venture. Trump Media assets The wealth of the Republican businessman-turned-politician ranges from crypto to real estate, and a large part on paper is tied up in his stake in Trump Media & Technology Group, owner of social media platform Besides assets and revenues from his business ventures, the president reported at least $12m in income, including through interest and dividends, from passive investments totaling at least $211m, a Reuters calculation shows. His biggest investments were in alternative fund manager Blue Owl Capital Corp and in government bond funds managed by Charles Schwab and Invesco. The disclosure often only gave ranges for the value of his assets and income; Reuters used the lower amount listed, meaning the total value of his assets and income was almost certainly higher. Trump's properties in Florida, other places The disclosure showed income from various assets including Trump's properties in Florida. Trump's three golf-focused resorts in the state — Jupiter, Doral and West Palm Beach — plus his nearby private members' club at Mar-a-Lago generated at least $217.7m in income, according to the filing. Trump National Doral, the expansive Miami-area golf hub known for its Blue Monster course, was the family's single largest income source at $110.4m. The income figures provided are essentially revenues, not net profits after subtracting costs. The disclosure underlined the global nature of the Trump family business, listing income of $5m in license fees from a development in Vietnam, $10m in development fees from a project in India and almost $16m in licensing fees for a Dubai project. Trump collected royalty money, also, from a variety of deals – $1.3m from the Greenwood Bible (its website describes it as 'the only Bible officially endorsed by Lee Greenwood and President Trump'); $2.8m from Trump Watches, and $2.5m from Trump Sneakers and Fragrances. Trump listed $1.16m in income from his NFTs – digital trading cards in his likeness — while First Lady Melania Trump earned around $216,700 from license fees on her own NFT collection. Read:
Gulf Today
3 hours ago
- Gulf Today
VIDEO: Israel and Iran strike at each other in new wave of attacks
Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other late on Saturday, stoking fears of a wider conflict after Israel expanded its surprise campaign against its main rival with a strike on the world's biggest gas field. Tehran called off nuclear talks that Washington had said were the only way to halt Israel's bombing, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were nothing compared with what Iran would see in the coming days. Israel's military said more missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel late on Saturday, and that it was working to intercept them. It also said it was attacking military targets in Tehran. Iranian state television said Iran had launched missiles and drones at Israel. Several projectiles were visible in the night sky over Jerusalem late on Saturday. Air raid sirens did not sound in the city, but were heard in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. Israel's ambulance service said a woman in her 20s was killed and 13 other people injured when a missile struck a two-story house in northern Israel. Iran said the Shahran oil depot in Tehran was targeted in an Israeli attack but that the situation was under control. US President Donald Trump had warned Iran of worse to come, but said it was not too late to halt the Israeli campaign if Tehran accepted a sharp downgrading of its nuclear programme. A round of US-Iran nuclear talks due to be held in Oman on Sunday was canceled, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying the discussions could not take place while Iran was being subjected to Israel's "barbarous" attacks. In the first apparent attack to hit Iran's energy infrastructure, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said Iran partially suspended production at the world's biggest gas field after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday. The South Pars field, offshore in Iran's southern Bushehr province, is the source of most of the gas produced in Iran. Fears about potential disruption to the region's oil exports had already driven up oil prices 9% on Friday even though Israel spared Iran's oil and gas on the first day of its attacks. An Iranian general, Esmail Kosari, said on Saturday that Tehran was reviewing whether to close the Strait of Hormuz controlling access to the Gulf for tankers. Iran said 78 people were killed on the first day of Israel's campaign, and scores more on the second, including 60 when a missile brought down a 14-storey apartment block in Tehran, where 29 of the dead were children. Iran had launched its own retaliatory missile volley on Friday night, killing at least three people in Israel. With Israel saying its operation could last weeks, and Netanyahu urging Iran's people to rise up against their leadership, fears have grown of a regional conflagration dragging in outside powers. B'Tselem, a leading Israeli human rights organization, said on Saturday that instead of exhausting all possibilities for a diplomatic resolution, Israel's government had chosen to start a war that puts the entire region in danger. Tehran has warned Israel's allies that their military bases in the region would come under fire too if they helped shoot down Iranian missiles. However, 20 months of war in Gaza and a conflict in Lebanon last year have decimated Tehran's strongest regional proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon, reducing its options for retaliation. Israel sees Iran's nuclear programme as a threat to its existence, and said the bombardment was designed to avert the last steps to production of a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists the programme is entirely civilian and that it does not seek an atomic bomb. However the U.N. nuclear watchdog reported it this week as violating obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty. Reuters
ARN News Center
9 hours ago
- ARN News Center
Watch: Abu Dhabi hosts test flight of pilotless air taxi
Abu Dhabi has taken a major leap into the future of transportation with a successful public test flight of a passenger electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, or eVTOL. The demonstration, supported by the Smart and Autonomous Systems Council and the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO), was conducted in partnership with EHang and Multi Level Group. The autonomous flight showcased the EH216-S, the world's first certified pilotless two-seater eVTOL, designed for safe, zero-emission urban mobility. The aircraft's performance in Abu Dhabi's hot climate validated key technologies including airspace coordination and vertiport operations, under the oversight of the UAE's General Civil Aviation Authority. Officials say this marks a pivotal step toward integrating air taxis into everyday life, aligning with Abu Dhabi's vision for innovation and intelligent transport. EHang also announced plans to establish regional operations in the emirate, including a final assembly line and support facilities. Badr Al Olama, Director-General of ADIO called the flight a symbol of Abu Dhabi's ambition to lead in next-generation mobility, diversify its economy, and build homegrown capabilities. The latest demonstration lays the groundwork for future commercial deployment of urban air mobility in the UAE. View this post on Instagram A post shared by ARN News Centre (@arnnewscentre)
