PTI's slide, from populism to political isolation

Express Tribune

4 days ago

A year ago, August 5 would have plunged the Twin Cities into chaos. Roads would have been sealed and containers mounted, yet crowds would have been roaring in protest. But on August 5 this year, the anniversary of Imran Khan's arrest from Islamabad in 2023, the streets of Rawalpindi and Islamabad remained calm, undisturbed by the opposition's call for a protest. Only scattered police mobiles, prison vans and a visible security presence dotted major intersections and, that too, not to manage unrest but to watch over the conspicuous silence.
This marked not just a shift in public response but symbolised a deeper collapse within the country's once-largest and loudest political force: the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The very day the party hoped to reignite street resistance on the second anniversary of its founding chairman's incarceration, it turned into one of the darkest day for the party as its remaining top parliamentary leaders in the Senate, National Assembly and Punjab Assembly were disqualified and de-notified in connection with the judgment of the May 9 riots' cases.
Politically and geographically, the party that once claimed unmatched public support and alleged institutional blessings is now apparently confined to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, where it still holds power. Elsewhere, PTI has largely been wiped off the mainstream political map.
One example of it is its failure to mobilise people for August 5 protest, which the party supremo had desired to exert pressure on the PMLN-led government and the powerful stakeholders for his release. As the irony would have it, Imran Khan had given a final call for his release last November, which had failed too.
PTI's political decay has been anything but sudden. The party, once riding high on populist slogans and support from powerful quarters, began losing ground after the events of May 9, 2023, when violent protests erupted following Imran Khan's arrest.
For the first time in history, military installations were attacked, triggering what would become a decisive turning point. In the aftermath, a sweeping crackdown followed, with mass arrests and party leaders forced to switch party, abandon politics or disassociate from the party altogether.
As the top-tier leaders vanished from the scene under duress, defection, court proceedings or because of being thrown in jail, the party's internal coordination shattered. Yet, despite crackdowns, the party workers continued to come out to support in big numbers until recently. However, the continuous disarray in the party and the leadership's absence when rank-and-file workers faced arrests or prosecutions started creating gap between the people and the party leadership.
This repeated pattern of abandonment has not gone unnoticed within PTI's support base, which once prided itself on being ideologically driven and deeply loyal, both on social media and on the ground. However, the absence of organised resistance on the symbolic August 5, when Imran Khan urged the party to rise in protest, showcased just how far PTI has fallen from its former position of street dominance.
To add insult to injury, the disqualification of opposition leaders from the Senate, National Assembly and Punjab Assembly as well as parliamentary leader further demonstrated PTI's decline inside legislative houses. With the removal of its parliamentary leadership, the party now finds itself unable to influence legislation, challenge government policy or even issue symbolic dissent within parliamentary bounds.
This parliamentary vacuum has come on the heels of the Supreme Court's recent decision on reserved seats, which handed a crucial advantage to the ruling alliance. The court ruled in favour of awarding reserved seats, previously meant for PTI, to parties within the ruling coalition. As a result, the PMLN emerged as the single largest party in the National Assembly while the ruling alliance now enjoys a two-thirds majority.
PTI's failure to maintain internal cohesion and external alliances has left it directionless. Instead of holding talks with the political elite, it has repeatedly said that it only wishes to hold talks with the powerful stakeholders. However, the response from the other side has so far been extremely cold. Once seen as cordial, the party's relationship with the establishment is now completely fractured. From being perceived as a product of tacit institutional support, PTI is now an example of what political isolation in Pakistan looks like.
Though the party is in power in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, it is still under pressure. Its previous attempts to organise major activities beyond KP have constantly been met with pre-emptive state action like arrests, bans, and curbs on public gatherings. Last September, after holding a rally in the capital, the law enforcement officials barged into the Parliament to arrest PTI lawmakers for flouting a law on political rallies. Subsequently, the party only managed to reach the capital in November, but only to abandon the party workers and without gaining anything. Since then, it tried to flex muscles and announced that the protest movement would start soon after Eid but that never happened.
Lack of clarity on future course of action, party leadership's inability to craft a post-Imran political narrative, grouping in the party and almost no control of the incumbent party chairman over its members have all contributed to its current paralysis. Currently, with Imran Khan in jail and his appeals zigzagging through the courts, the party's entire political strategy remains centered on his personality but disconnected from political realities.
In contrast, the PMLN-led ruling coalition has capitalised on PTI's weaknesses. With the opposition effectively sidelined, the government has moved to consolidate power both legally and politically. With the 26th constitutional amendment, the ruling alliance changed the judicial structure and the process of appointing the top judge of the country by nominating the chief justice from among the most senior judges, rather than the most senior judge automatically assuming the position. Additionally, the court decision on reserved seats handed not just numbers but legitimacy to the alliance and rumours are that it was gearing up for another constitutional amendment.
By avoiding major political controversies and projecting a narrative of stability and economic recovery as well as victory over India in the recent war, the ruling alliance is now busy crafting the image of a functioning and united government, even though governance issues persist. For now, the political arena seems to be a one-sided contest. With a crippled opposition, a solid parliamentary majority and little visible public resistance, the ruling alliance appears to have full control, at least until the next major shift.
PTI's downfall is not just about arrests or disqualifications. It's about a party that lost its organisational discipline, confronted the very forces that once helped it rise only to demand the same thing again and failed to protect or rally its support base when it mattered most. From dominating national headlines to being pushed to the margins, PTI's journey over the last few years is a study in political reversal. And with no clear path forward, no functioning top-tier leadership and no signs of reconciliation with power centres, the party that once ruled from Islamabad now watches from the sidelines; increasingly limited to KP.
For now, the streets are quiet, the opposition is broken and the ruling coalition reigns unchallenged.