Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 2, 2025
- Brandon Farris, Vice President: Energy & Resources Policy at the Steel Manufacturers Association - Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director: Trade Practice & McLarty Inbound at McLarty Associates - Aditya Bhave, Senior US Economist at Bank of America - Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments Brandon Farris, Vice President: Energy & Resources Policy at the Steel Manufacturers Association, joins to discuss President Trump saying he will double steel tariffs and how that could affect consumers and businesses. Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director: Trade Practice & McLarty Inbound at McLarty Associates, discusses the latest on the US-led trade war and whether talks with China are stalling. Aditya Bhave, Senior US Economist at Bank of America, offers his outlook for the US economy and potential for a recession in 2025. Victoria Fernandez, Chief Market Strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, discusses her outlook for equities in 2025 and whether there could be more choppiness in the summer months.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
ECB's Lagarde slams 'coercive trade policies' in Beijing visit
European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde warned Wednesday that "coercive trade policies" risked harming supply chains and the global economy, and called for a de-escalation of a tariff standoff that has wiped billions off markets. Lagarde, one of the world's most influential central bankers, is visiting Beijing this week for talks with local counterparts on the Chinese economy and expanding cooperation. Her visit came as high-level China-US talks in London ended with an agreement to lower tensions after US President Donald Trump launched his tariff blitz in April. In a speech at the People's Bank of China -- the country's central bank -- she urged all parties to find solutions "even in the face of geopolitical differences". Lagarde urged countries to protect the "multilateral framework" of international trade, which she said "so greatly benefited our economies". "Coercive trade policies are far more likely to provoke retaliation and lead to outcomes that are mutually damaging," she added. "All countries should examine how their structural and fiscal policies can be adjusted to reduce their own role in fuelling trade tensions," she said, calling for an end to "mutually damaging escalation of tensions". She warned that protectionism risked "eroding the foundations of global prosperity". Beijing and Brussels' trade policies have been slammed by Trump, who last month threatened to escalate tariffs on the European Union if it did not negotiate a swift deal. China, meanwhile, has sought to improve shaky relations with the bloc as a counterpoint to Trump. China and the European Union will host a summit next month marking 50 years since they established diplomatic ties. The two sides will discuss setting minimum prices for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and opening a "green channel" for rare earth exports to the 27-nation bloc, according to official statements. sam/oho/dan
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Analysts react to US-China trade agreement
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -U.S. and Chinese officials said they had agreed on a framework to put their trade truce back on track and remove China's export restrictions on rare earths while offering little sign of a durable resolution to longstanding trade differences. China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said the two teams had agreed on implementing their Geneva consensus and would take the agreed framework back to their leaders. MARKET REACTION: Share markets and the dollar were guarded, with S&P 500 futures down 0.3%, while awaiting more detail of what was decided and whether it would stick. QUOTES: CHRIS WESTON, HEAD OF RESEARCH, PEPPERSTONE, MELBOURNE: "The devil will be in the details but the lack of reaction suggests this outcome fully expected. "While clearly a positive outcome, the lack of reaction in S&P500 futures, and the incremental moves seen in CNH or AUD, suggests achieving the framework on the Geneva agreement was fully expected – the details matter, especially around the degree of rare earths bound for the US, and the subsequent freedom for US produced chips to head East, but for now as long as the headlines of talks between the two parties remain constructive, risk assets should remain supported." LIN GENGWEI, CO-FOUNDER AND CEO, RAIN TREE PARTNERS, SINGAPORE: "Both sides have the pressure, and willingness to reach an agreement. This is temporary achievement in talks but will not alter the pattern of perennial Sino-U.S. rivalry. "The U.S. will not completely remove restrictions on chip exports to China, but may relax the curbs in response to pressure from both Beijing and the domestic semiconductor sector." MARK DONG, CO-FOUNDER OF MINORITY ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG: "This is positive news to the market. At least now there's a bottom line that neither side is willing to cross. "Going forward, both sides will move toward reducing the trade imbalance." ZENG WENKAI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SHENGQI ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG: "The market likely anticipated this — Trump is just TACO (Trump always chickens out)." "Look at how countries are negotiating with the U.S. these days; it's no longer like how Vietnam approached things early on. Japan and South Korea are taking a tougher stance. People have realised that kneeling gets you nowhere — in fact, it only invites more bullying." CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE: "Markets will likely welcome the shift in tone from confrontation to coordination. But with no further meetings scheduled, we're not out of the woods yet. The next step depends on Trump and Xi endorsing and enforcing the proposed framework. "It's important not to mistake this tactical de-escalation for a full reversal of strategic decoupling. The underlying competition around technology, supply chains, and national security remains very much intact. New issues can always emerge, and the real test will be how far this "new old deal" is implemented." TAN XIAOYUN, FOUNDING PARTNER OF ZONSO CAPITAL, GUANGDONG: "Talks will continue under the agreed framework, and I believe the U.S. will give in more than China to reach a deal." "Under the current circumstances, the U.S. side faces more pressing challenges, while the Chinese side has more breathing space. China was defensive, but has turned offensive, leveraging on rare earth and market access. This marks a rebalancing in strength and clout." MICHAEL MCCARTHY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, MOOMOO AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY: "I'll be watching to see how bonds trade today on the back of this. The currency markets are taking it in stride, and given the equity markets are back to all-time highs or thereabouts, it does appear that this was very much anticipated. "For weeks, there have been expectations of the deal. The delivery of it will likely be a market positive, with a weakening dollar and stronger equities, but it's not a step change." CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY: "I think in this environment... any hints on progress on a potential trade agreement will be positive for markets. "It will still be very hard and it will take a long time for both sides to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. That sort of comprehensive deal usually takes years to be reached, so I'm skeptical that a framework reached at the meeting in London will be comprehensive. Tensions might be de-escalated for now, but they will certainly escalate again in coming months." RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY AT NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, SYDNEY: "It's way too early to say that we know we're in the midst of establishing a cast iron, new US-China trade agreement. The whole year has been littered with positive omens about reaching agreements and then we haven't really seen substantial progress or we've seen backsliding on things that were seemingly agreed so. "Our view is still that whatever does get agreed in the coming weeks and months, the baseline view is that we're going to end up with a global tariff situation which is far worse than existed prior to Trump's ascent to the presidency so we're still going to have a tariff environment we believe will be detrimental as far as global growth is concerned." TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY: "If we keep the terms of the Geneva Agreement, we're looking at US tariffs on Chinese goods staying at 30% for a period of time and Chinese tariffs on US goods at 10%. So that's down from 145% and 125% respectively. That would be fantastic. "Now that for me was probably the market consensus ... and now people just trying to work out whether they're gonna buy or sell the US dollar and that's I think reflecting a bit of that indecision. "That's why U.S. equity markets are holding at this point of time. I still feel like they're overcooked and they need to pull back. It's just been a remarkable run and we're sort of pushing up now against the record highs from February, so for me, it would make sense for them to take a breather." DAVID CHAO, GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, ASIA PACIFIC, INVESCO, HONG KONG: "The recent headlines that we've seen is that the US and China - they're ready to make a deal, I think from both sides, and that is a very good sign for markets as well as for policymakers in both countries. Because ultimately, cooler heads will prevail, and we think that the road has been laid for closer dialogue between the top leaders between the two countries. "Today's news about the US and China striking a potential deal on things like rare earths or access to semiconductors or jet engine equipment, that is a very good indication that we have moved through peak tariff uncertainty." Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: US, China agree on plan to ease trade tensions as US appeals court allows tariffs to remain in effect
The US and China agreed to a framework and implementation plan to ease trade tensions on Tuesday. 'We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus,' US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. The commerce secretary indicated the deal should resolve issues between the two countries on rare earths and magnets. Representatives will now take the proposal to their respective leaders for approval. The progress comes after two days of trade talks between the US and China in London. The high-stakes negotiations follow Trump's call with Xi Jinping last week, which both leaders framed as positive. Tensions between the two countries had been rising since they reached a temporary truce in mid-May in Geneva. Both countries accused the other of breaching the agreement while ratcheting up pressure on other issues. Meanwhile, though Trump's most sweeping tariffs continue to face legal uncertainty, on Tuesday, the president received a favorable update. A federal appeals court held a decision saying his tariffs can temporarily stay in effect. The US Court of International Trade had blocked their implementation last month, deeming the method used to enact them "unlawful." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet The latest twists and turns in Trump's trade policy come as the president pushes countries to speed up negotiations. The US sent a letter to partners as a "friendly reminder" that Trump's self-imposed 90-day pause on sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs is set to expire in early July. White House advisers have for weeks promised trade deals in the "not-too-distant future," with the only announced agreement so far coming with the United Kingdom. US and Indian officials held trade talks this week and agreed to extend those discussions on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the July 9 deadline. New tariffs are coming into play: Effective Wednesday, June 4, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. US-China talks stretched on Tuesday, and they may continue into Wednesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters outside of Lancaster House in London, where delegations from both countries are meeting. "I think the talks are going really, really well," Lutnick said. "We're very much spending time and effort and energy — everybody's got their head down working closely." "I hope they end this evening," he added, "but if they need be, we'll be here tomorrow." The teams from China and the US, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have been holding negotiations since Monday. The London summit followed a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Stocks rose to near session highs following Lutnick's comments on an otherwise fairly muted day in markets. Read more here. From Reuters: Read more here. Banking fees and trading revenue for one of the world's largest investment banks is expected to climb this quarter despite the concerns that surround US tariffs, Citigroup's (C) head of banking Vis Raghavan said on Tuesday. Raghaven added, that M&A activity continues to be active but the IPO market has been "stagnant." Reuters reports: Read more here. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%. The international financial institution, which provides loans to governments said that high tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. On Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade negotiations with China were going well, as the two sides met in London for a second day of talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), North America's top producer of copper has warned that tariffs could hurt an industry that President Trump is trying to help. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Maruti Suzuki has cut near-term production targets for its maiden electric vehicle e-Vitara by two-thirds because of rare earths shortages, a document showed, in the latest sign of disruption to the auto industry from China's export curbs. India's top carmaker, which said on Monday it had not seen any impact yet from the supply crisis, now plans to make about 8,200 e-Vitaras between April and September, versus an original goal of 26,500, according to a company document seen by Reuters. It cited "supply constraints" in rare earth materials that are vital in making magnets and other components across a range of hi-tech industries. Read more here. Both the US and China are finding new tools to use as bargaining chips within trade negotiations. Here's an example of just some of them: Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The de-escalation in trade tensions likely contributed to an improvement in US small-business confidence in May. However, uncertainty remained due to the overall economic outlook. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China. Investors are cautious as the two biggest economies seek to resolve some contentious issues. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As US-China trade negotiations resume in London on Tuesday, both sides are eager to rebuild the truce established in May. While, the US has tightened controls on AI chip exports, China may be holding the most valuable card in these talks. CNN reports: Read more here. Advertising firm, WPP said on Tuesday that global advertising revenue is expected to grow 6% this year, lowering its earlier target of 7.7% due to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reported that trade talks between the US and China will resume tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. in London after six hours of negotiations on Monday. US officials were looking for a "handshake" on Monday, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told CNBC, as the two sides look to ease tensions over tech and rare earths. President Trump weighed in on the progress, telling reporters on Monday: "We are doing well with China. China's not easy. ... I'm only getting good reports.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said it was "good meeting" and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the talks "fruitful," sending an upbeat signal on the talks' progress. The Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, did not comment on the talks. From Bloomberg: Read more here. The number of ocean containers from China bound for the US fell precipitously in May when President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods were in effect. Supply chain technology company Descartes said Monday that seaborne imports from China to the US dropped 28.5% year over year, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, per Reuters. Overall, US seaborne imports fell 7.2% annually in May to 2.18 million 20-foot equivalent units. The decline snaps a streak of increases fueled by companies frontloading goods to avoid higher duties, which has kept US seaports, such as the Port of Long Beach, busy. "The effects of U.S. policy shifts with China are now clearly visible in monthly trade flows," Descartes said in a statement. Read more here. In today's Chart of the Day, Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer writes that tariff headlines have been rattling markets to a lesser degree than they did in April, despite an escalation of trade tensions recently: Sign up for the Morning Brief newsletter to get the Chart of the Day in your inbox. US import costs of steel and aluminum are expected to rise by more than $100 billion after President Trump doubled tariffs on the metals to 50% this week. That is expected to impact automakers such as Ford (F), as well as importers for a variety of goods, from baseball bats to aircraft parts. The Financial Times reports: Read more here. Tariffs have brought challenges for many, but Century Aluminum (CENX) and top recycler Matalco stand to benefit from President Trump's metal import duties as domestic prices rise. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. US-China talks stretched on Tuesday, and they may continue into Wednesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters outside of Lancaster House in London, where delegations from both countries are meeting. "I think the talks are going really, really well," Lutnick said. "We're very much spending time and effort and energy — everybody's got their head down working closely." "I hope they end this evening," he added, "but if they need be, we'll be here tomorrow." The teams from China and the US, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have been holding negotiations since Monday. The London summit followed a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Stocks rose to near session highs following Lutnick's comments on an otherwise fairly muted day in markets. Read more here. From Reuters: Read more here. Banking fees and trading revenue for one of the world's largest investment banks is expected to climb this quarter despite the concerns that surround US tariffs, Citigroup's (C) head of banking Vis Raghavan said on Tuesday. Raghaven added, that M&A activity continues to be active but the IPO market has been "stagnant." Reuters reports: Read more here. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%. The international financial institution, which provides loans to governments said that high tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. On Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade negotiations with China were going well, as the two sides met in London for a second day of talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), North America's top producer of copper has warned that tariffs could hurt an industry that President Trump is trying to help. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Maruti Suzuki has cut near-term production targets for its maiden electric vehicle e-Vitara by two-thirds because of rare earths shortages, a document showed, in the latest sign of disruption to the auto industry from China's export curbs. India's top carmaker, which said on Monday it had not seen any impact yet from the supply crisis, now plans to make about 8,200 e-Vitaras between April and September, versus an original goal of 26,500, according to a company document seen by Reuters. It cited "supply constraints" in rare earth materials that are vital in making magnets and other components across a range of hi-tech industries. Read more here. Both the US and China are finding new tools to use as bargaining chips within trade negotiations. Here's an example of just some of them: Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The de-escalation in trade tensions likely contributed to an improvement in US small-business confidence in May. However, uncertainty remained due to the overall economic outlook. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China. Investors are cautious as the two biggest economies seek to resolve some contentious issues. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As US-China trade negotiations resume in London on Tuesday, both sides are eager to rebuild the truce established in May. While, the US has tightened controls on AI chip exports, China may be holding the most valuable card in these talks. CNN reports: Read more here. Advertising firm, WPP said on Tuesday that global advertising revenue is expected to grow 6% this year, lowering its earlier target of 7.7% due to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reported that trade talks between the US and China will resume tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. in London after six hours of negotiations on Monday. US officials were looking for a "handshake" on Monday, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told CNBC, as the two sides look to ease tensions over tech and rare earths. President Trump weighed in on the progress, telling reporters on Monday: "We are doing well with China. China's not easy. ... I'm only getting good reports.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said it was "good meeting" and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the talks "fruitful," sending an upbeat signal on the talks' progress. The Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, did not comment on the talks. From Bloomberg: Read more here. The number of ocean containers from China bound for the US fell precipitously in May when President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods were in effect. Supply chain technology company Descartes said Monday that seaborne imports from China to the US dropped 28.5% year over year, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, per Reuters. Overall, US seaborne imports fell 7.2% annually in May to 2.18 million 20-foot equivalent units. The decline snaps a streak of increases fueled by companies frontloading goods to avoid higher duties, which has kept US seaports, such as the Port of Long Beach, busy. "The effects of U.S. policy shifts with China are now clearly visible in monthly trade flows," Descartes said in a statement. Read more here. In today's Chart of the Day, Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer writes that tariff headlines have been rattling markets to a lesser degree than they did in April, despite an escalation of trade tensions recently: Sign up for the Morning Brief newsletter to get the Chart of the Day in your inbox. US import costs of steel and aluminum are expected to rise by more than $100 billion after President Trump doubled tariffs on the metals to 50% this week. That is expected to impact automakers such as Ford (F), as well as importers for a variety of goods, from baseball bats to aircraft parts. The Financial Times reports: Read more here. Tariffs have brought challenges for many, but Century Aluminum (CENX) and top recycler Matalco stand to benefit from President Trump's metal import duties as domestic prices rise. Reuters reports: Read more here.
