A tale of two speeches

Politico

04-03-2025

Presented by the Coalition to Empower Our Future
FULL GALLOP — If you were betting on the least likely sentiments to emerge from Donald Trump's speech to the Congress, you might choose among these:
— a hat tip to Black history month and the civil rights movement;
— a call for a long-term agreement on immigration reform;
— strong support for NATO, 'an alliance forged through the bonds of two world wars that dethroned fascism, and a Cold War, and defeated communism;'
— a summons to 'direct, robust and meaningful engagement with the world…based on vital security interests that we share with our allies all across the globe;'
— a shout-out to Justin Trudeau and Canada;
— support for paid family leave;
— repeated calls for unity, proclaiming that 'we are one people, with one destiny. We all bleed the same blood. We all salute the same great American flag. And we all are made by the same God.'
Those of you with strong memories or a taste for the improbable may have realized that all of them come from the first speech the new President Trump delivered to Congress eight years ago. A look back at that address is a bracing reminder of how astonishing the shift has been in the political terrain.
Trump entered the presidency under circumstances that 'improbable' doesn't begin to cover. Apart from his lack of public engagement, he had survived a mortal threat to his candidacy: after a tape of him making crude, obscene boasts about his predatory sexual behavior emerged, a raft of key Republicans — senators, governors, the national party chair — all urged him to drop out of the race. He won despite finishing almost three million votes behind Hilary Clinton in the popular vote; victories in three states by a fraction of a percent won him the Electoral College. He came into office with the lowest approval ratings of any incoming chief executive in memory.
And while he had a Republican Senate, which cheerfully confirmed his Supreme Court nominee, many of those same Republican senators — roughly one-fifth of their membership — had either refused to endorse him or called on him to drop out.
Back then, Trump had nothing like the chokehold he would later develop over his party, Had he, for example, proposed the mix of Cabinet nominees he named this time around, a platoon of GOP senators — John McCain, Jeff Flake, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, and more — would have laughed them out of the chamber. Instead, his choices then were drawn squarely within traditional boundaries: generals like Jim Mattis, high powered executives like Rex Tillerson, senators like Jeff Sessions and Dan Coats.
The limits of his power can be seen throughout his speech to the Congress. The grim, almost apocalyptic tone of his Inaugural Address — 'American carnage'as it came to be called — were modulated in his talk to Congress. Indeed, the tone of his speech was the key takeaway of the post-speech analyses.
'Mr. Trump's speech to Congress was a more optimistic vision of America and what he called the promises ahead,' the New York Times said. 'The themes were largely Republican orthodoxy, delivered soberly and almost verbatim from a prepared text. Mr. Trump read from teleprompters and appeared restrained and serious.'
It was, said NPR, 'his most successful, if not his first, effort at assuming the public persona and personal demeanor associated with his new office. He stuck to the script on his teleprompter, spoke graciously to individuals in the audience and refrained from attacks on critics, rivals or adversaries.'
And when he acknowledged the widow of Randy Owens, a Navy SEAL killed in a raid in Yemen, CNN's Van Jones proclaimed, 'he became president of the United States in that moment, period.'
This time? The president faces a Republican Senate whose members are acutely aware of Trump's power over their political destinies. A survivor of sexual assault who has made the issue her special cause, cast the key vote to confirm a nominee credibly accused of sexual harassment. A senator who as a physician has made the case for vaccination a central cause, cast the vote confirming a vaccine-skeptic who already has begun to ignore the assurances he gave. Agencies authorized and funded by the Congress have been decimated, with only the mildest of cautionary words from his party. An alliance with Europe that has endured for 80 years — enthusiastically supported by Republicans — now seems on life support, and many of the same voices that denounced Putin's invasion of Ukraine were muted even before Friday's Oval Office confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Donald Trump who tread cautiously eight years ago is in full gallop; in less than 50 days, he has — with the eager assistance of Elon Musk and his team — reshaped the American government more fundamentally than any president, FDR possibly excepted.
What he says to Congress and the nation tonight is a matter of conjecture. But it is a safe bet that if the words match the deeds, it will be as if this Donald Trump and the Trump of 2017 were two very different presidents.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [e-mail]. Or contact tonight's author on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @greenfield64.
What'd I Miss?
— Trump's trade war sparks broad backlash: It's dawning on the world — and several Republicans on Capitol Hill — that sometimes President Donald Trump should be taken literally after all. Trump levied sweeping tariffs on key trading partners Mexico, Canada and China early Tuesday morning, sparking retaliation from Beijing and Ottawa, sending the stock market into a tailspin, and alarming government officials around the globe as they brace for potentially the worst trade war in a century.
— House and Senate GOP leaders split on Trump's tariffs: President Donald Trump's decision to slap steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico is revealing something of a split screen between the top two Republicans on Capitol Hill. In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune — who hails from an agricultural state that was hit hard by the trade wars of the first Trump administration — told reporters he hoped the new tariffs will only be in place as long as it takes to limit the flow of fentanyl into the United States.
— Vance sparks British fury as he mocks Ukraine peacekeeping plan: Vice President JD Vance was hit by a wave of criticism from British and French politicians Tuesday as he mocked Europe's plan to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine to keep the peace. In an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Vance dismissed peacekeeping assistance from 'some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 years' — interpreted by politicians across the divide in London as an attack on the U.K., which has been pushing such a plan alongside France.
— Trump: American students will be 'permanently expelled' or arrested for campus protests: President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened colleges' federal funding for allowing 'illegal protests' and said American students will be expelled. 'All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests,' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested. NO MASKS! Thank you for your attention to this matter.' The social media post comes after a federal task force on antisemitism last week announced it would visit 10 college campuses that had antisemitic incidents since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel.
— No more in-person town halls, NRCC chief tells House Republicans: The chair of the House GOP's campaign arm told Republican lawmakers Tuesday to stop holding in-person town halls amid a wave of angry backlash over the cuts undertaken by President Donald Trump's administration. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the NRCC chair, delivered the message inside a closed-door meeting of House Republicans. Trump on Monday dismissed the town hall uproar — much of it trained on the sweeping cutbacks made by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency — as being the work of 'paid 'troublemakers.'' Many other GOP leaders have adopted a similar tack, asserting that the protests Republican lawmakers have encountered have been concocted by Democrats and do not reflect genuine voter anger over the Trump cuts.
AROUND THE WORLD
ANNEX THIS — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced President Donald Trump for launching a trade war with his country, saying that he won't back down from a tariff fight with the United States. 'Today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin — a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense,' Trudeau said in Ottawa. 'Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight, not when our country and the well being of everyone in it is at stake.' Trudeau pledged relief to Canadian workers caught in the trade war's crosshairs, and told the American people that his quarrel was not with them.
MAKING THINGS RIGHT — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed a limited truce with Russia and said his country is willing to move forward on a minerals and security deal with the United States on Tuesday, days after a bitter clash in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump sent shock waves through the global order.
'Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way,' wrote Zelenskyy on social media platform X. 'It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.'
In his social media post, the wartime Ukrainian president said he and his team are 'ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,' proposing Ukraine and Russia both release prisoners and agree to a 'truce in the sky' and 'truce in the sea immediately.'
Zelenskyy's Tuesday social media post marks a dramatic turn in the negotiations around the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been raging since Russia launched its full-scale offensive in 2022. Trump and Vice President JD Vance's dressing down of Zelenskyy last week dramatically escalated diplomatic tensions, raising questions about America's commitment to the embattled Western nation and sending European leaders scrambling to voice their support.
MILITARY LOANS — The EU's latest response to Donald Trump's decision to walk away from America's longstanding protection of Europe is to announce a plan to send loans of up to €150 billion to governments to help them boost military spending.
Facing the most serious crisis within the western alliance since 1945 as the U.S. sides with Russia, Europe is desperate for ways to fire up defense expenditure, which is paltry compared with America's contribution. The EU has not traditionally involved itself in funding armed forces ― preferring since the 1950s to build roads, subsidize farmers and establish cross-border cultural projects ― but the pivot to financing military power underscores the radical and rapid reshaping of global dynamics.
NGO NON GRATA — German conservatives and the Hungarian far right may have little in common, but they do agree on one thing: Non-governmental organizations rank high on their list of enemies.
In a significant political maneuver, incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic alliance (CDU) last week submitted an inquiry targeting NGOs, which involved 551 parliamentary questions for organizations such as Greenpeace and Grandmas Against the Far Right. Critics saw the inquest as an assault on civil society after NGOs joined protests against the CDU's January alignment on migration with the far-right Alternative for Germany.
More broadly across Europe, authoritarian leaders have increasingly sought to limit the influence of NGOs, particularly those that support environmental concerns, human rights or equality in opposition to their politics. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has made suppressing civil society one of his government's consistent priorities, while Slovakia's leftist-populist Prime Minister Robert Fico has also sought to bring NGOs to heel.
Nightly Number
RADAR SWEEP
PIZZANOMICS — Pizzas at Domino's and Pizza Hut essentially cost the same as they did in the 1990s. How is it that pizza prices barely budged in 26 years? Elsewhere across the American casual dining landscape, prices have kept up with or surpassed inflation. A Big Mac Extra Value Meal costs nearly $11, compared to $4.59 in 1993. A crunchy taco at Taco Bell that went for 59 cents in 1990 is $1.79 today. The truth is that since inflation ramped up in 2021, pizza chains like Pizza Hut and Domino's have hiked prices — just not by as much as their fast-food peers. And their prices today are vastly lower than what they charged in the '90s, adjusted for inflation. The trick, it seems, has been volume and hidden fees. Mark Dent explores the economics of franchise pizza for The Hustle.
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