Friedl hits a tiebreaking single in the 7th inning as the Reds edge the Cubs 3-2
Tyler Stephenson homered for Cincinnati, and Elly De La Cruz had an RBI double. The Reds (59-54) had dropped four of six.
Dansby Swanson hit his 17th homer for the Cubs (65-47), who fell three games behind NL Central-leading Milwaukee.
With two outs and runners on the corners in the seventh, Friedl drove in Jake Fraley with a looper into center field against Caleb Thielbar. Ryan Brasier (0-1) got the loss.
The Cubs threatened in the bottom half, advancing Willi Castro to third with two down. Swanson then hit a chopper to third and was ruled safe.
The Reds challenged, and the call was overturned when a replay review showed Swanson missed the bag initially as he crossed first base.
Both starters, Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo and Chicago's Michael Soroka, exited with injuries.
The Cubs grabbed a 2-1 lead on Dansby Swanson's two-run homer off Nick Martinez in the third. But they finished with just three hits.
Scott Barlow (5-0) pitched two innings for the win, and Emilio Pagán tossed a 1-2-3 ninth for his 24th save.
Pitching on his 28th birthday, Soroka departed his Cubs debut after two innings because of right shoulder discomfort. He was acquired in a trade with Washington on Thursday.
Ben Brown replaced Soroka and tossed four innings of one-run ball.
Key stat
The Cubs had won three of four.
Up next
Zack Littell (8-8, 3.58 ERA) makes his Cincinnati debut on Tuesday night, and left-hander Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.25 ERA) starts for Chicago. Littell was acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay last week.
___
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
MLB contenders watch for fatigue as some starters experience an increased workload
CHICAGO (AP) — At age 34, Matthew Boyd is going back to what was once familiar territory for the left-hander. He has logged 130 2/3 innings so far in his first season with the Chicago Cubs, more than he totaled in the previous two years combined. It's a workload jump that goes against what had become conventional wisdom in the majors, where teams have frequently capped pitchers' innings in hopes of keeping them healthy. 'Things have been going great,' Boyd said. 'And I think it's like none of us know what's ahead. And that goes for everybody." Boyd's workload is worth watching as the Cubs try to rally in the NL Central race and go on a deep October run. He is among a group of pitchers going through a spike in innings in the heart of the playoff picture. After spending most of his career as a reliever, Clay Holmes has 117 1/3 innings going into his 23rd start for the Mets on Tuesday night. Phillies left-hander Jesús Luzardo is up to 127 innings after he finished with 66 2/3 last year. All-Stars Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox and Bryan Woo of the Mariners also are progressing toward major increases. 'That's something we always monitor and watch,' Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. 'I know we're in constant communication in-between starts.' The days of predetermined innings limits, especially when it comes to young prospects and pitchers on losing teams, aren't going away anytime soon. But more organizations appear to be going with a case-by-case approach. 'I think the reason why it's changed a little bit and we don't look at that either percentage increase or fixed innings increase is because it wasn't working," said David Stearns, the president of baseball operations for the Mets. 'I think more and more we're trying to treat each pitcher as an individual. And if a pitcher feels good both subjectively and objectively, we try not to artificially shut them down.' Crochet, 26, helped show what might be possible last year. The 6-foot-6 left-hander, who had Tommy John surgery in April 2022, began last season with 73 innings in 72 appearances spanning four seasons with the White Sox. He made his first big league start on opening day. With the White Sox closely monitoring his workload in the last part of the season, he finished with 32 starts and 146 innings. He is tied for the major league lead with 141 1/3 innings going into Tuesday night's start against Kansas City. 'I think that I really set myself up for this season to go out there and for there really to be no leash necessary,' said Crochet, who was traded to the Red Sox in December and then agreed to a $170 million, six-year contract. 'I've been feeling really good throughout the season and the five days in between my starts I really feel like I'm prepared and doing a lot to get my body in the right position to have success and to continue to give length throughout the year.' Boyd was recovering from Tommy John surgery when he signed with Cleveland last year. He returned to the majors last August and went 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA in eight starts and 39 2/3 innings for the Guardians. He also pitched 11 2/3 innings for the AL Central champions in the playoffs. That was enough for Chicago to give Boyd a $29 million, two-year contract in free agency. And he has delivered so far, making the NL All-Star team while going 11-4 with a 2.34 ERA in 22 starts. Boyd pitched a career-high 185 1/3 innings for Detroit in 2019, but he hasn't approached that territory since. The Cubs gave him nine days off between starts over the All-Star break, and Boyd has frequent conversations with manager Craig Counsell and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy about his workload and how he is feeling. The Cubs also have rookie right-hander Cade Horton, who is up to 102 2/3 innings this season — including his time with Triple-A Iowa — after he totaled 34 1/3 innings in the minors last year. 'This is an area where the industry has not maybe figured out the answer, so you're just trying to keep getting better answers,' Counsell said. 'I think in the past, we were just relying on history. I think now we're relying on the data we collect from the actual player.' Communication is one thing, but an array of metrics and biomechanical analysis is at the center of the decision-making process when it comes to pitchers and rest. 'There's tangible things that you just keep an eye on,' Boyd said. "You have your spin data, you have your velocity. We have biomechanics tracking. It's like, 'Hey, the mechanics are getting out of whack. ... Is there something we need to address? How do you address that?' 'There's so many different avenues you can go down and levers you can pull if you will. And it's not as cut and dry as like 20% increase, 50% increase (in innings).' ___ AP Baseball Writer Mike Fitzpatrick in New York and AP Sports Writer Andrew Destin in Seattle contributed to this report. ___ AP MLB:
Forbes
4 hours ago
- Forbes
Somehow Cy-Less Phillie Zack Wheeler Yet Again Is NL Frontrunner
We're over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it's time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL Cy Young race was examined yesterday - today it's the NL's turn. If you're new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It's a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they 'should have' allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That's expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher's 'Tru' ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their 'Tru' Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA). While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc.. The Giants' Logan Webb is considered a viable contender by many this season. He stands just outside the Top Ten according to my method through July 31, with 9.1 'Tru' Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA). He has traditionally been valued less by my method - though he is a huge grounder generator, he has typically rated as a below average contact manager due to relatively authoritative contact allowed. His durability is a huge asset, and he has made some positive strides, but still (barely) rates as an outsider here. Now let's get to the top contenders. Padres' righty Dylan Cease (9.2 TPRAA) doesn't appear to be having a very good year on the surface, but he looks better once you peel back a couple layers. He's been exceedingly unlucky across all batted ball types (134 Unadjusted vs. 104 Adjusted Contact Score). He still walks more batters than you'd like, and at times struggles from the stretch, but the ability is certainly there. Braves' righty Spencer Schwellenbach (9.6 TPRAA) is currently injured and won't qualify for the ERA title at season's end, but deserves his flowers for how he pitched when healthy. His K/BB profile is immaculate, he was among MLB leaders in innings pitched before his injury, and he induces plenty of easy ground ball outs. Giants' lefty Robbie Ray (10.1 TPRAA) has been a poor contact manager throughout his career, but has made great strides this season. His 90.6 mph average exit speed allowed is deceptively high, but he has yielded a large number of can-of-corn 90-100 mph fly balls, keying a solid 83 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. Cubs' lefty Matthew Boyd (10.2 TPRAA) has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, but has been a constant this season as his club is making a push for the NL Central crown. He's the most extreme fly ball/pop up pitcher we'll discuss today, with an 18.0 degree average launch angle allowed. Brewers' righty Freddy Peralta (11.0 TPRAA) has watched the identity of his rotation-mates change all season, remaining a constant stabilizing presence. He's actually been eerily similar to Boyd, with a fractionally lower average exit speed (by 87.8 to 87.9 mph) and average launch angle allowed (17.7 degrees). #5 - LHP Nick Lodolo (Reds) - 15.3 TPRAA, 74 'Tru'-, 71 ERA-, 87 FIP- And now for a pretty significant jump upward in class. Lodolo's command is among the very best in the NL, and his contact management performance (87 Adjusted Contact Score) has also been well above average. He's struggled to remain healthy in the past, but (crosses fingers) has taken the ball every fifth day without incident this season. He's totally diffused the run-inflating effects of his stomping grounds at Great American Ball Park. #4 - LHP Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) - 15.6 TPRAA, 74 'Tru'-, 61 ERA-, 69 FIP- Sanchez and the #1 guy below form the most potent #1-2 starting pitcher punch in the game today. He's an elite sinkerballer, with a 2.7 degree average launch angle allowed this season. His contact management hasn't been quite up to his 2024 NL Contact Manager of the Year standard, but is still well above average (89 Adjusted Contact Score). His 'Tru''- is slightly higher than his ERA- and FIP-, but is still quite impressive. #3 - RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) - 17.6 TPRAA, 67 'Tru'-, 64 ERA-, 72 FIP- While his fellow highly-compensated rotation-mates have gone down all aroud him, Yamamoto has gone to the post every fifth day and excelled. The top three guys on this list currently stand #1-2-3 in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race - Yamamoto has an 80 Adjusted Contact Score through July 31. He's gotten it done by inducing plenty of ground balls and throttling fly ball authority - his 88.7 mph average fly ball exit speed allowed ranks 2nd lowest among NL ERA qualifiers. #2 - RHP Paul Skenes (Pirates) - 22.6 TPRAA, 63 'Tru'-, 43 ERA-, 58 FIP- He gets no run support, but Skenes' greatness shines through. His K/BB profile is exceptional, and his contact management skill is also top shelf. He's currently 2nd in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race with a 78 Adjusted Contact Score. His 88.3 mph average fly ball exit speed allowed is also 2nd in the NL. His 'Tru'- is a bit higher than his ERA- and FIP-, but is still top notch, and he's quietly among NL innings pitched leaders. He seems to be the mainstream favorite for the NL Cy at present, but….. #1 - RHP Zack Wheeler (Phillies) - 29.4 TPRAA, 52 'Tru'-, 61 ERA-, 65 FIP- He's never won a Cy, but has been 'my' winner multiple times. Here we go again. His 'Tru'- is easily better than his ERA- and FIP-. What gives? Well, he's been exceedingly unlucky on fly balls this season, with his 121 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score far exceeding his adjusted 61 mark. He's the current leader in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race - another honor he's earned multiple times in the past - with a 76 Adjusted Contact Score. His 87.2 mph average exit speed allowed is the lowest in the NL, and his 29.4 TPRAA is the highest of any pitcher in baseball, including AL Cy leader Tarik Skubal. The Fangraphs WAR race has Skenes (4.5 WAR) ahead of Wheeler (4.0) through July 31.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Reds at Cubs Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for August 5
It's Tuesday, August 5 and the Reds (59-54) are in Chicago to take on the Cubs (65-47). Zack Littell is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati against Shota Imanaga for Chicago. The Reds opened the series with a 3-2 win off a RBI single in the seventh inning. Despite the win, the Cubs still own the season edge, 4-3. Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts. Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long. Game details & how to watch Reds at Cubs Date: Tuesday, August 5, 2025 Time: 8:05PM EST Site: Wrigley Field City: Chicago, IL Network/Streaming: FDSNOH, MARQ, TBS Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out. Odds for the Reds at the Cubs The latest odds as of Tuesday: Moneyline: Reds (+152), Cubs (-183) Spread: Cubs -1.5 Total: 8.0 runs Probable starting pitchers for Reds at Cubs Pitching matchup for August 5, 2025: Zack Littell vs. Shota Imanaga Reds: Zack Littell, (8-8, 3.58 ERA)Last outing: 0.00 ERA, 0 Earned Runs Allowed, 2 Hits Allowed, 4 Walks, and 4 Strikeouts Cubs: Shota Imanaga, (8-4, 3.25 ERA)Last outing: 5.40 ERA, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 5 Hits Allowed, 0 Walks, and 8 Strikeouts Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type! Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Reds and the Cubs Rotoworld Best Bet Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts. Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager. Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday's game between the Reds and the Cubs: Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Chicago Cubs on the Moneyline. Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Cincinnati Reds at +1.5. Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0. Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC. Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Reds at Cubs The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 home series The Over is 4-1 in the Cubs' last 5 divisional matchups Chicago is 8-8 since the All-Star break Cincinnati is 9-7 since the All-Star break If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports! Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
