A peek at TV spending for Gaetz's old seat

Politico

14-03-2025

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Good morning and happy Friday.
The race for Florida's 1st Congressional District, the seat former Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) vacated for a short-lived confirmation stretch to become President DONALD TRUMP's attorney general, is expected to be a slam-dunk for Trump-endorsed Republican JIMMY PATRONIS.
The district is reliably conservative. But there's still been a good chunk of cash spent on TV ads in the Panhandle race set for April Fools' Day, according to data through March 25 from the tracking firm Ad Impact. For House leadership, the election can't come soon enough. Republicans are currently operating under a razor-thin GOP majority, making it difficult to quickly advance Trump's agenda.
The data show the super PAC Conservative Future Fund led in spending, of $722,223 — even though the group hasn't spent any money on ads since the 10-way January 28 primary. Federal Election Commission records show $1.5 million was shifted to Conservative Future Fund in December from Keep Florida Free, a state committee previously connected to Patronis.
Defend American Jobs, a network of super PACs that's funded by the cryptocurrency industry, bought $192,942 in ad time ahead of the primary. The group tends to fund industry-friendly Republicans. Patronis' personal financial disclosure shows his wife owns between $1,000 and $15,000 in Bitcoin, and he has urged the Florida's Board of Administration to add crypto to the state's pension portfolio.
Patronis' campaign has spent $383,109 on TV ads so far, data show. His initial ad of the season, as Playbook reported first, showcased how Trump took to social media to urge him to run.
The campaign of his Democratic opponent, GAY VALIMONT, has spent more than Patronis' campaign has on TV ads, totaling $420,717 so far. One of Valimont's ads went after Patronis over high property insurance costs, an issue that consistently ranks at the top of Floridians' concerns. Patronis' most recent ad is a response to that, accusing Valimont of running a 'dishonest, dirty campaign' and of being an 'extreme liberal.' (The ad received scrutiny from the Tampa Bay Times over whether Patronis supported a large fine for an insurance company.)
Valimont's other ad of the season highlights the fact that the Panhandle has no VA hospitals despite having a high veteran population — forcing patients to drive to Mississippi for care or to go to a VA clinic that's overwhelmed and facing possible cuts under DOGE.
'The veterans are hurting here, and we are not interested in playing politics with their health care and their benefits,' said Valimont spokesperson KATHERINE JACKSON. 'We are focusing on listening to people, hearing those concerns. Gay's plan is to take them to Washington, DC and bring back real solutions to the district.'
Valimont, who has worked in gun safety advocacy and faced family health tragedies, previously challenged Gaetz for the seat in the 2024 election, warning at the time that she didn't think he would serve out a full term if reelected.
— Gary Fineout contributed.
WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis is holding a press conference at 10 a.m. in Palmetto with state Department of Transportation Secretary Jared Perdue.
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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...
HOT OFF THE PRESS — Florida Politics has unveiled its latest issue of INFLUENCE Magazine.
YOU NEVER GIVE ME YOUR MONEY — State economists are scheduled to draw up new estimates today that will tell Florida legislators how much money the state is expected to have in its main bank account for the coming year. The general revenue fund is culled from several sources but primarily comes from the state's six percent sales tax. The new estimates will be used by lawmakers as they start coming up with a new budget between now and early May.
These general revenue estimates can rise and fall based on the relative strength of the state's economy, including the health of the state's real estate market and the tourism industry. In recent years, the actual tax collections have largely exceeded the forecasts, but in January the state reported that general revenue collections were $31 million under, or 0.7 percent below, previous estimates. The new estimates are being drawn up during a period of uncertainty amid trade wars and talk about a potential recession.
Legislative leaders have already put rank-and-file members on notice that they anticipate tighter controls on spending in the coming year — in part because Florida has spent down the billions in federal aid it received from Congress during the Covid-19 pandemic. But forecasts also show a need in key areas such as Medicaid and the fund that pays for state worker health insurance.
— Gary Fineout
TPS REVOCATION NEAR — 'While lawmakers on Capitol Hill try to find a way forward, Venezuelan Temporary Protected Status recipients in Florida and across the country are racing to find solutions before the April 7 expiration date,' reports POLITICO's Isa Domínguez. 'Cuban Republicans representing Venezuelan communities in South Florida have tried to broker a solution with the Trump administration in Congress. But the GOP-led Florida Legislature has not introduced legislation that would provide relief.'
MAPMAKER, MAPMAKER — A panel of three federal judges was asked Thursday to toss a lawsuit that contends the Legislature illegally racially gerrymandered state Senate seats in the Tampa Bay area. The lawsuit was first filed nearly a year ago on behalf of a handful of Black and Hispanic residents of the area by the American Civil Liberties Union of Florida and is scheduled to go to trial in early June.
But during a nearly 90-minute hearing, lawyers for the state Senate and Secretary of State CORD BYRD argued there are multiple reasons the lawsuit should be rejected now. One of the main arguments: Those challenging the districts have not produced facts or evidence that demonstrate the districts were drawn illegally.
The legal challenge centers on the district currently held by Democratic state Sen. DARRYL ROUSON, which includes minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg but also pulls in communities in southern Hillsborough County on the other side of Tampa Bay. There is no bridge that directly connects these areas. The lawsuit contends this was done to lower the number of minority voters in an adjoining district held by a Republican state senator.
The Senate's legal filings acknowledge race was considered to make sure that the districts complied with one of the standards that are part of the 'Fair Districts' requirements passed by voters in 2010. But the state's lawyers said Thursday the racial composition of the district was only looked at after the district's configuration was first drawn up.
NICHOLAS WARREN, an ACLU attorney, contended the case should still be allowed to proceed to trial and asserted the Senate used race as its main justification for Rouson's district.
The three judges did not rule Thursday, but some of their questioning suggests they were skeptical of the need to go to a trial.
— Gary Fineout
— 'Florida Healthy Kids doesn't work for many medically vulnerable kids, here's why,' by Joe Mario Pedersen of Central Florida Public Media.
WATER AGENCY LEGISLATION — A state Senate committee bill would cap Everglades restoration funding about $48 million short of the governor's current budget request, South Florida Water Management District Executive Director DREW BARTLETT told his agency board Thursday.
Bartlett also told the board all five of the state's water management districts and the governor's office are 'engaging' on the legislation, FL SB 7002 (25R).
'We want to make sure that — as we have for the last six years — [we] are able to be nimble, to advance projects, deal with changing conditions as we move forward to execute the construction of all these very important projects,' Bartlett said.
Brodeur told POLITICO in February the Legislature wants more assurances that the districts are spending state money as intended. He complained about agency requests for projects that had been fully funded and should have been completed already.
Brodeur's Appropriations Committee on Agriculture, Environment, and General Government advanced the bill last week by an 11-0 vote without debate or public comment, although Democrats on the panel raised questions about the bill.
— Bruce Ritchie
BILLS MOVING THROUGH THE LEGISLATURE …
— The bill to preempt local regulations when building a presidential library cleared the state House State Affairs Committee on Thursday with little discussion but without Democratic support. State Rep. ANNA ESKAMANI (D-Orlando) questioned whether the bill took into account the possibility that the president might want to build an 'untraditional' library possibly including a hotel or casino and its sponsor, and state Rep. ALEX ANDRADE (R-Pensacola) replied it was geared only toward regulations on land use.
— Kimberly Leonard
— A bill filed by state Rep. TIFFANY ESPOSITO (R-Fort Myers) that would allow landlords to deliver notices to tenants through email cleared the House Civil Justice and Claims Subcommittee on Thursday. Opponents to the bill raised concerns that important notices could get lost in a flood of emails or be potentially mistaken for spam.
— Isa Domínguez
IN MEMORIAM — The Florida Senate convened Thursday to honor the late state Sen. GERALDINE THOMPSON (D-Orlando). Relatives and members of her sorority, Alpha Kappa Alpha, attended as well. Thompson's colleagues recounted memories they shared with her on the floor.
'When I think about what she modeled — you know, whether you agree with her or disagree — she said, 'Never let your voice be silent, and it's a way to say what you got to say,'' state Sen. ROSALIND OSGOOD (D-Tamarac) said.
— Isa Domínguez
PENINSULA AND BEYOND
— 'Tampa Bay Rays announce they won't move forward with stadium deal,' by Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times.
— 'Trump travel ban: 'no exceptions' for Cubans, Venezuelans. Other islands may join Haiti on list,' reports Nora Gámez Torres and Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald.
— 'Venezuela to resume deportation flights from the U.S.,' by the Miami Herald's Antonio Maria Delgado.
— 'Miami Beach mayor moves to end O Cinema lease after screening of Israeli-Palestinian film,' reports Lauren Costantino and Aaron Leibowitz of the Miami Herald.
— 'NASA's SpaceX Crew-10 launch targets Friday at Cape Canaveral after Wednesday scrub,' reports Florida Today's Rick Neale.
TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP
TODAY — Former Vice President MIKE PENCE is speaking to the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches at noon at the Kravis Center for the Performing Arts.
— 'Inside the Rubio-Musk relationship — and Rubio's survival strategy,' by POLITICO's Nahal Toosi.
DATELINE D.C.
ONE LESS FLORIDA MAN — The Trump White House pulled former Rep. DAVE WELDON's nomination Thursday, just before he was set to testify about becoming the next director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. His vaccine skepticism contributed to the fact that senators weren't on track to confirm him, report POLITICO's Sophie Gardner, Lauren Gardner and Chelsea Cirruzzo.
PUSH FOR NASA HQ — Sens. ASHLEY MOODY (R-Fla.) and RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) filed legislation to relocate NASA headquarters to Florida's Space Coast. In a statement, Moody wrote the move would 'save taxpayers money, encourage collaboration with private space companies, and tap into Florida's talented workforce to spur further innovation.'
For background: Moody and Scott are some of the more recent Florida GOP voices calling for NASA to consider the Sunshine State as its new home. But lawmakers from states such as Texas have also been lobbying for it.
— Isa Domínguez
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN
BIRTHDAY: Jimmy Loomis, Department of State special adviser and former defense and foreign policy adviser to former Rep. Stephanie Murphy … (Saturday) former state Sen. Audrey Gibson … Rep. Mike Haridopolos ... former state Sen. Chris Smith … (Sunday) Richard Corcoran, New College president and former House speaker … state Rep. Chip LaMarca.