The Betfred Derby – Runner-by-runner guide and tips

Telegraph

15 hours ago

The Derby, run over 1m 4f around the twists, turns and undulations of Epsom, is a true test of the thoroughbred, examining a horse's speed, stamina and balance. First staged in 1780, it's one of the world's most prestigious races.
Sponsored by Betfred, this famous Classic carries prize money of £1,500,000, of which just over £900,000 goes to the winner. This year's renewal has attracted 19 runners, three of them trained by Aidan O'Brien, who has won the race a record 10 times. It's live on ITV1 and Racing TV.
Odds provided by Betfred and correct at the time of writing. Stars denote strength of selection (max 5).
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Betfred Derby – 3.30pm, Saturday
Ron Wood's Betfred Derby verdict
This year's Derby is wide open. The favourite Delacroix is no standout on form, the 2,000 Guineas winner Ruling Court is stepping up half a mile in trip and The Lion In Winter belatedly needs to build on his two-year-old promise.
The last two could probably do with the rain staying away, an unsettled weather forecast perhaps influencing Ryan Moore's decision to give up the ride on The Lion In Winter in favour of Delacroix.
Pride Of Arras and Damysus, the Dante Stakes winner and runner-up, appeal most of those towards the head of the betting, but the form of the York race doesn't look robust, as there was a muddling pace and the first 10 finishers were covered by just six lengths at the line.
There are plenty of runners who appeal at big prices and this feels like a Derby in which it's worth taking a chance on some outsiders. Midak (16/1), TENNESSEE STUD (33/1) and Lazy Griff (100/1) appeal most on that score.
It's Tennessee Stud who is my selection. Ignore his defeat behind Delacroix on his reappearance at Leopardstown. The winner was race-fit whereas the selection had been given an extended break and is a big horse who would have needed the outing. Plus it wasn't a truly run race.
This test promises to bring out more in him, given he had the stamina to win a Group 1 contest over 1m 2f on testing ground as a juvenile, and the Derby has been the aim since then.
Betfred Derby – Guide to runners and odds
Delacroix (14) – 3/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Ryan Moore: Has won both starts in 1m 2f Group 3 Derby trials at Leopardstown this year, quickening off a steady pace most recently. This requires more, but he's a half-brother to a Group 1 winner over 1m 6f and should be fine over the longer trip.
He is the choice of Ryan Moore, who has ridden the last two Derby winners (and has won the race four times overall), over the other two runners for Aidan O'Brien, who has won the race a record 10 times. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ruling Court (7) – 7/2 with Betfred
Trainer: Charlie Appleby; Jockey: William Buick: Finished behind The Lion In Winter over 7f in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York last summer, but improved to win the 2,000 Guineas – the season's first Classic – over a mile at Newmarket in May.
He is by Justify, the sire of last year's Derby winner, and the dam's sire, High Chaparral, won the Derby in 2002, although a deeper dive into his pedigree suggests he's not a sure stayer. Slow ground would be a worry. ⭐⭐⭐
Pride Of Arras (16) – 5/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Ralph Beckett; Jockey: Rossa Ryan: On his sole start as a two-year-old, he landed a Sandown maiden that his trainer won in 2021 with the subsequent Derby third and Group 1 winner Westover. Followed up to win the 1m 2f Group 2 Dante Stakes at York on his reappearance, quickening off a steady pace.
Bred to stay on the dam's side of his pedigree, his striding data gives him every chance of getting the trip as well, for all that slow ground would be a question mark. The Dante form doesn't look strong, but he's open to further improvement. ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐
The Lion In Winter (19) – 8/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Colin Keane: By the 2009 Derby winner Sea The Stars and his dam won over 1m 4f. Looked a top-class prospect in winning his first two starts over 7f last year, notably the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York (when Ruling Court was third). However, his season was cut short early and he failed to make the 2,000 Guineas. Unplaced behind three of these rivals on his belated return in the Dante at York, where he pulled hard, met some trouble late on and wasn't given an unduly hard ride.
He was said to need the run and his trainer's last two winners of this race were bouncing back from disappointing reappearances. Ryan Moore has deserted him for Delacroix and slow ground would be a question mark, but he shouldn't be written off. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Damysus (15) – 12/1 with Betfred
Trainer: John and Thady Gosden; Jockey: James Doyle: By the great Frankel out of a 1m 4f Group 2 winner. Improving with racing, most recently finishing second to Pride Of Arras in the 1m 2f Dante Stakes at York.
Didn't help himself by hanging left, so he will need to be more professional to handle this trickier track, with its camber in the straight, while the Dante form may not be reliable. But he's still learning and could progress enough for the greater stamina test. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lambourn (10) – 12/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Wayne Lordan: By his connections' 2014 Derby winner Australia. Runner-up to stablemate Delacroix over 1m 2f on reappearance, before winning Group 3 Chester Vase over this trip. Needs to improve a lot. ⭐⭐⭐
Stanhope Gardens (2) – 16/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Ralph Beckett; Jockey: Hector Crouch: Ran green when third behind Ruling Court in a 7f maiden at Sandown on their debuts last year and later finished a close second to Delacroix in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over a mile at Newmarket.
Has had an unconventional prep, returning only two weeks ago to win what was little better than an egg-and-spoon race over a mile at Salisbury. His connections have been keen to get him here but he needs to improve, which he may do for this trip. ⭐⭐⭐
Midak (4) – 16/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard; Jockey: Mickael Barzalona: French-trained runner who seems to have surprised his connections, as he wasn't originally entered in this race or some other big events but has been supplemented into this field for £75,000.
Goes for the Aga Khan Studs and this year's Derby is being run in honour of the late owner, His Highness Aga Khan IV, whose five Derby winners include Shergar. Successful on all three starts in France, most recently the 1m 2½f Group 3 Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud, which Mickael Barzalona won on Pour Moi before their Derby win in 2011. Not as flashy as some of these, but he'll stay well. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nightwalker (5) – 25/1 with Betfred
Trainer: John and Thady Gosden; Jockey: Tom Marquand: Another by Frankel and out of a half-sister to same connections' Logician (by Frankel), who won the St Leger over 1m 6½f. Looks to need this trip and more, most recently keeping on after getting behind in the 1m 2f Dante Stakes at York (behind two of these rivals). May not be fast enough, but his best is still to come. Now fitted with cheekpieces for the first time. ⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee Stud (12) – 33/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien; Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle: Successful in a three-runner Group 1 race over 1m 2f on heavy ground in France last year (Green Storm second). That race was won the previous season by the same owner's Los Angeles, who was then third in this race and won the Irish Derby. This race has been the plan ever since France.
Was beaten almost seven lengths into third by Delacroix at Leopardstown on his reappearance (1m 2f), but a steady early pace placed the emphasis on speed, and he will have needed the run, as his connections chose to skip the early Derby trials. Stamina looks like his game and he's a big horse who has improvement in him. Might not be the worst outsider. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tornado Alert (11) – 33/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor; Jockey: Oisin Murphy: Front-running fourth behind Ruling Court in the 2,000 Guineas over a mile at Newmarket on his reappearance. Evidently talented but it's hard to think he will see this out best, for all that there's stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree. ⭐⭐
New Ground (17) – 50/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Henri-Francois Devin; Jockey: Alexis Pouchin: Like Midak, he's a French-trained runner who has been supplemented for £75,000. Needs to improve a good deal, having been beaten in two lesser races up to 1m 2f in France this year, but his connections think this step up in trip could be the answer. There is plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree. ⭐⭐⭐
Tuscan Hills (6) – 66/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Raphael Freire; Jockey: David Egan: Late-May foal who won both starts over a mile last year, notably a Listed race on soft ground at Pontefract. Behind a few of these when only seventh in the Dante at York on his return, but did make a bit of a move in the straight, probably being asked to go too soon. Presumably he needed the run, but his stamina is questionable looking at the pedigree. ⭐
Sea Scout (18) – 100/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford; Jockey: Harry Davies: Another by the 2009 winner Sea The Stars. Narrowly won 1m 2f Listed race here on reappearance, before fading behind a few of these in the Dante at York, where he took a keen hold. Hard to fancy. ⭐
Lazy Griff (3) – 100/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Charlie Johnston; Jockey: Christophe Soumillon: Beaten into second by Lambourn in the 1m 4f Chester Vase on his reappearance, but the winner was race-fit whereas this colt had reportedly missed a workout and was short of peak fitness. Plenty of improvement needed but he stays and won't mind rain, so he's worth considering at huge odds. ⭐ ⭐ ⭐⭐
Nightime Dancer (9) – 150/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Richard Hannon; Jockey: Jamie Spencer: Raced wide into the straight when third in the Lingfield Derby Trial (the first two finishers are missing from this race) and it's possible the ground was too fast for him. Needs to do way more now, but he isn't dismissed. ⭐⭐
Green Storm (8) – 200/1 with Betfred
Trainer: Charlie Johnston; Jockey: Billy Loughnane: Second of three behind Tennessee Stud in a Group 1 race over 1m 2f in France last year. Found 1m 1f too short when a well-beaten fourth in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket on reappearance. His dam won a Group 2 race over 1m 4f and he can improve for this test, but he doesn't look good enough. ⭐⭐
Odds courtesy of Betfred and correct at time of writing.
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Last 10 Derby winners
Star ratings explained
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ - confident selection
⭐⭐⭐⭐ - strong fancy
⭐⭐⭐ - fair claims
⭐⭐ - tentative choice
⭐ - minimum confidence
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