Christian Watson analysis: Electric upside, but injuries cloud future in Green Bay

USA Today

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Christian Watson analysis: Electric upside, but injuries cloud future in Green Bay
Christian Watson is in an interesting and difficult situation entering the final year of his rookie deal in Green Bay, as he rehabs from an ACL injury which is expected to cost him at least part of the 2025 season, despite reportedly being ahead of schedule in his recovery.
This leaves his future with the Packers somewhat up in the air. Finding a compromise on a contract to keep him on the team in 2026 and beyond projects to be difficult, and depends greatly on how quickly and effectively he can return to his pre-injury form.
In terms of what Watson has brought to Green Bay in his three years so far, here is what the numbers say about his overall profile as a wide receiver:
Strengths
Watson's primary usage in his NFL career to date has been as a deep threat, where he is a constant threat to create an explosive play due to his electric speed and unique size.
Among qualified NFL receivers, he ranks in the 92nd percentile in average depth of target (ADOT) since entering the league, and the 85th percentile for yards per reception (Y/REC), evidencing his ability to hurt teams deep.
Whenever he has been on the field, Watson has been a very valuable receiver, ranking in the 72nd percentile for yards per route run (Y/RR), one of the more reliable statistics for analyzing the quality of receivers.
His speed has also allowed him to be one of the better receivers in the league in creating yards after the catch, ranking in the 74th percentile in yards after catch per reception (YAC/REC). If Watson gets the ball in space, it is hard to run him down.
Watson's stature has helped him to be strong in contested catch situations, not just deep, but in all areas of the field, as he is able to box out defenders. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in contested catch percentage (CTC%).
With 14 touchdowns in three years, Watson has a knack for finding the end zone. This number may not seem overly impressive, but when taking account of how much time he has missed, it becomes more notable. Watson ranks in the 74th percentile for touchdowns per target.
The intermediate part of the field is the portion where Watson has been the most efficient, ranking in the 70th percentile for both Y/REC and Y/RR. The lowest percentage of his dropped passes came in the 10-19 yard area, as he ranks in the 66th percentile for drop rate in this range.
A particularly important element of Watson's game for this Packers team has been his ability to beat man coverage, an aspect many of his teammates have struggled with.
Watson has been excellent against man, ranking in the 82nd percentile for Y/RR and the 68th for Y/REC. He has often been Green Bay's answer when presented with man coverage, and his absence was certainly felt when he missed time in 2024 in that regard.
He is still effective against zone, ranking in the 86th percentile for Y/REC and the 61st for Y/REC, although his drop rate is much worse, ranking in the 27th percentile compared to 65th percentile versus man.
Weaknesses
The flashes are so bright with Watson, and the impact he can have on a game on just a few targets is special, but arguably the biggest problem is that he has simply not been able to have that impact regularly enough.
A huge part of that is availability. Watson has missed a lot of time with injuries in his first three seasons. Combine that with the competitive receiver group he plays in, and Watson ranks in just the 28th percentile for targets since his rookie year.
It feels a bit harsh to call this a weakness, but for one reason or another, Watson has not been able to become a high volume receiver, and his role has settled in as something of a boom/bust rather than a true "number one" receiver.
Watson has battled drops throughout his NFL career so far, like many of his teammates, ranking in the 32nd percentile in drop rate since 2022.
Despite his elite speed which helps him get yards after the catch, Watson is not elusive with the ball in his hands, ranking in the 35th percentile for missed tackles forced per reception. He is not a shifty, agile player in that sense.
There are not many true weaknesses with Watson, with the injuries, which are not his fault, the biggest issue which have caused his NFL career to feel very stop/start.
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After an extremely tough rookie year in terms of drops, ranking in just the 3rd percentile, Watson has actually improved quite significantly since then, ranking in the 45th percentile in 2023 and the 46th last season. These numbers are still slightly below average, but nothing to worry about.
Despite his size/speed profile, Watson was not an especially efficient deep target as a rookie, ranking in the 32nd percentile for Y/RR.
Part of that may have been a lack of chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, and he has become a much more effective deep threat since Jordan Love took over, ranking in the 42nd percentile for Y/RR in 2023 and the 72nd in 2024. His Y/REC has also improved each year.
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Watson showed some ability to make defenders miss as a rookie, ranking in the 60th percentile in missed tackles forced per reception, but he dropped to the 30th percentile in 2023 and the 15th in 2024.
It is likely at least partially due to his usage and not being put in positions to make things happen after the catch as often.
Touchdown totals can be volatile and are somewhat circumstantial, and Watson ran colder in that regard in 2024, ranking in the 33rd percentile compared to the 98th and 91st in his first two years.
While Watson has become a crucial part of Green Bay's ability to overcome man coverage, he has been a much lesser part of their offense against zone coverage, which makes sense given the Packers have plenty of other receivers who excel versus zone.
After ranking in the 66th percentile in target percentage against zone as a rookie, he only ranked in the 32nd and 22nd percentile in the last two years respectively.
Overall, Watson has a unique skill set and explosive potential, and on a snap to snap basis has arguably been Green Bay's best receiver in his three years with the team, but his regular impact has unfortunately been consistently hampered by injuries.
The ACL tear has thrown another wrench into the equation on whether the Packers keep Watson long term, but if he can return earlier than expected and quickly regain his full abilities, he has a chance to show enough to convince Green Bay he is worth handing an extension to.
Given how difficult it could be to find a number both sides are happy with though, and the depth the Packers now have at receiver, it seems it will be harder to thread the needle on the timeline that would have to occur in order for Watson to be a Packer in 2026.