
Congress worries about Chinese spies on college campuses
With help from Nahal Toosi
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Lawmakers concerned about Chinese threats to national security are zeroing in on college campuses.
The House passed legislation Wednesday that will deny Department of Homeland Security funding to U.S. colleges and universities that partner with Chinese academic institutions linked to Beijing's security apparatus. They include state-backed Confucius Institutes (of which there are only a handful nationwide, according to U.S. Government Accounting Office data) as well as a much more ambiguous category of 'entities of concern' that would likely apply to the majority of universities and colleges across China.
'This legislation is in no way an overreach,' said the bill's sponsor, Rep. AUGUST PFLUGER (R-Texas). 'These relationships present a clear danger to U.S. national security interests.'
The same day that Pfluger's bill passed the House, a conservative campus newspaper, The Stanford Review, ran a story that appeared to validate his concerns. 'The CCP is orchestrating a widespread intelligence-gathering campaign at Stanford' through the school's Chinese students, the paper reported.
Stanford's official response via three of its most eminent China scholars warned against fearmongering. 'We must be careful not to doubly victimize the many scholars from China who are trying to navigate around intensifying geopolitical pressures,' they said in a letter published Friday.
Higher education has long been a focus of the Department of Justice's probes of foreign espionage operations — though not without controversy. The DOJ's now-defunct China Initiative, a program launched in the first Trump administration targeting Chinese academics at U.S. universities, was accused of racial profiling and conducting flawed investigative work.
Pfluger's bill and The Stanford Review's reporting reflect how worsening geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have caused espionage suspicions to filter down to Chinese students.
American academics and organizations that foster U.S.-China educational ties recognize the damage posed by Chinese espionage operations. But they say it doesn't justify reporting that equates Chinese students with CCP spy rings.
'I'm worried that articles like this might inflate that threat and cast doubt upon ordinary Chinese students who are truly just trying to come to this country to get a good education,' said ROSIE LEVINE, executive director of the nonprofit US-China Education Trust.
Research by the Cato Institute think tank belies suspicions that universities are hotbeds of foreign spying. Cato's analysis of espionage cases from 1990 to 2019 revealed that only 0.3 percent involved academic institutions.
That data hasn't deterred Rep. RILEY MOORE (R-W.Va.) from introducing legislation in March that would bar student visas from being issued to Chinese citizens due to perceived threats. Moore didn't respond to a request for comment.
If Moore's bill becomes law, the potential economic impacts are severe. Chinese students spending in the U.S. contributed $14 billion to the U.S. economy and supported 143,000 jobs, according to data from nonprofit business advocacy group the US-China Business Council. Still, there are no signs yet that the bill has bipartisan support or is a legislative priority in this Congress.
'We can and must protect national security without scapegoating Chinese students or targeting academic institutions simply for having international ties,' said Rep. JUDY CHU (D-Calif.), a member of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus.
The Inbox
IRAN TALKS BACK ON: The U.S. and Iran will resume nuclear talks this weekend, Reuters reports, after pausing for alleged logistical reasons.
Iranian Foreign Minister ABBAS ARAGHCHI said today that Iran agreed to a fourth round of talks with the United States about its nuclear program to be held in Oman. Araqchi added that negotiations 'are moving forward' even as both sides review increasingly technical proposals.
The original fourth round of talks was meant to take place in Rome last week, but Oman, which has mediated talks, said it needed to be rescheduled for 'logistical reasons.' It's unclear what will be on the agenda for talks this weekend, but loyal NatSec Daily readers will note the U.S. has reserved some ambiguity about its stance on Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities.
Ahead of those talks, special envoy STEVE WITKOFF told Breitbart that Iran has agreed it doesn't want a nuclear weapon and emphasized that the administration does not want Iran to enrich uranium as it maintains a civilian nuclear program.
DEFIANT DUO DEEPENS TIES: Chinese leader XI JINPING wraps up a three-day trip to Moscow today to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe, complete with goose-stepping Chinese troops marching through Red Square. But it wasn't all pomp and circumstance.
Xi and Russia's President VLADIMIR PUTIN also signed a slew of deals to honor their 'no limits' partnership, including agreements aimed at improving economic ties and ensuring mutual supply of agricultural products and mineral resources, the Kremlin said in a statement Thursday.
Beijing's readout of the meeting essentially crushed the Trump administration's hopes of peeling off Russia from its alignment with China. 'President Xi noted that the two sides, as good neighbors that cannot be moved away, true friends who share weal and woe, and good partners for mutual success,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said Friday.
Beijing twisted the knife by touting a new Russian-Chinese movie titled 'Red Silk' about those tight ties. 'The story of Chinese and Russian Revolutionaries fighting shoulder to shoulder touched many hearts,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING said in an X post Thursday.
LANDAU'S WELCOME: Deputy Secretary of State CHRISTOPHER LANDAU is scheduled to greet a group of white Afrikaners designated as refugees when they arrive in the U.S. on a chartered flight next week, according to a document obtained by our own Nahal Toosi.
The Trump administration has shut down refugee admissions for virtually all other people around the world. But, as The New York Times and others have reported, it has made an exception for white Afrikaners who say they face racial persecution in South Africa.
Spokespeople for the State Department did not respond to a request for comment on Landau's role.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring DOUG KLAIN, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council and a policy analyst at Razom for Ukraine, a U.S.-based organization that advocates for Ukraine and provides humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Eric and Robbie (and NatSec Daily hosts of long ago) have pinged Doug several times in recent years for his insight and analysis on the country's war with Russia.
Doug told us he's been loving a local cocktail at Elle in D.C.'s Mount Pleasant neighborhood called the Uman Ember, made with reposado infused with smoked pears from Ukraine. But his favorite bar is on the other side of the Atlantic — the King Charles I pub near King's Cross in London. He describes it as an 'old hole-in-the-wall wood-paneled pub' with 'phenomenal cask ales' and a great jukebox to boot.
Doug also recounted a time last summer in Kyiv, when he met some locals playing badminton and drinking beers before curfew outside of a metro station. There was a blackout after Russia hit some energy stations, but that didn't stop the resourceful Ukrainians from making a makeshift court with bikes to mark the nets.
'My victorious badminton opponents told me there was no better way to enjoy a summer night in Kyiv,' Doug said.
We'll take your word for it! Cheers, Doug!
IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
INDIA-PAK DEEPFAKES: Deepfake videos are proliferating on social media as India and Pakistan trade blows, getting picked up by local news outlets faster than they can be fact-checked.
Researchers at investigative journalism group Bellingcat found that a doctored video of Pakistani Gen. AHMED SHARIF CHAUDHRY saying that Pakistan had lost two of its aircraft got picked up by major Indian news outlets, who thought it was legitimate. That included broadcaster NDTV and digital outlets The Free Press Journal, The Statesman and Firstpost.
Another deepfake that briefly made the rounds involved President DONALD TRUMP appearing to declare that he would 'destroy Pakistan.' That one, however, was quickly debunked by Indian fact-checkers and didn't cause nearly as much damage.
The broad reach of these videos comes as the frenzied nature of strikes and attacks from both sides has made it increasingly difficult for fact-checkers to verify reports, creating an information vacuum. And experts told Bellingcat that the increased quality of the videos could make verification much harder in the future.
'In crisis periods, the information environment is already muddied as we try to distinguish rumors from facts at speed,' said RACHEL MORAN, an analyst at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public. 'The fact that we now have high-quality fake videos in the mix only makes this process more taxing, less certain and can distract us from important true information.'
The Complex
SPACE COUNCIL RETURNS: The Trump administration is resurrecting the National Space Council, our own Sam Skove reports.
The council is currently being staffed, an administration official told Sam, and it's expected the body will support Trump's interstellar ambitions, which include the construction of the space-based missile system called Golden Dome, beating China to a moon landing before 2030, landing astronauts on Mars and supporting commercial space companies.
The policy body, revitalized during the first Trump administration, was celebrated for helping establish the Space Force, supporting NASA's planned return to the moon under the Artemis program and ushering in regulatory reform in support of commercial space companies. But it had become a target of Trump adviser ELON MUSK, who owns SpaceX, and it was unclear if it would be revived due to his influence in the White House.
Broadsides
PAPAL PONTIFICATION: Based on old social media posts from an unverified account in his name, newly minted POPE LEO XIV appears less than enthusiastic about some of Trump's policies — and that's led some conservative commentators and allies of Trump to bash the pontiff.
As our colleagues Megan Messerly, Rachael Bade and Eli Stokols report, Trump allies, including LAURA LOOMER and STEVE BANNON, have criticized the new pontiff, a Chicago-born Augustinian friar who spent several decades in Peru as a missionary and bishop.
'The fact that he's American raises the possibility that the front-and-center issues are going to continue to be sort of first-world issues — and that could be, again, a recipe for division and tension with the administration,' said RAMESH PONNURU, a conservative commentator and practicing Catholic.
The relationship between the new Trump administration and the Vatican has so far been strained. The Trump administration named BRIAN BURCH, a critic of the late POPE FRANCIS, to be its ambassador to the Holy See. Francis also criticized Trump's immigration policies, prompting rebukes from Catholic members of the administration, including Vice President JD VANCE and border czar TOM HOMAN.
Not everyone is pessimistic about the potential relationship between the White House and the Holy See. Cardinal TIMOTHY DOLAN, the archbishop of New York, said today his fellow American prelate is likely to 'build bridges' with Trump. And Trump and Vance, for their parts, have been conciliatory, celebrating his election and noting the significance of an American now sitting in the chair of St. Peter.
Transitions
— Sweden's national security adviser, TOBIAS THYBERG, resigned within 24 hours of being appointed to his role after a Swedish newspaper obtained 'sensitive' photos of Thyberg tied to an old Grindr account he had used. Thyberg had been Swedish ambassador to Afghanistan from 2017 to 2019, ambassador to Ukraine until 2023 and most recently headed the Swedish Foreign Ministry's unit for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
— REBECCA FATIMA STA MARIA is now a senior adviser in Kuala Lumpur at The Asia Group. She was previously executive director of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.
— ROBERT BLAIR is joining WestExec Advisors as a principal. He most recently led U.S. government affairs at Microsoft focused on national security and emerging technology issues and is a Trump Commerce and White House alum.
— ALAN ESTEVEZ is now a senior adviser at Covington & Burling. He previously was undersecretary of Commerce for industry and security.
What to Read
— Una Hajdari, POLITICO: Trump's election maestro works to topple Albanian prime minister
— Sana Hashmi, The Diplomat: The Strategic Misreading of Taiwan Is a Dangerous Oversight
— Shalom Lipner, Foreign Policy: Why Netanyahu Might Be on a Collision Course With Trump
Monday Today
— Council on Foreign Relations, 1 p.m.: Reflecting on Post-Soviet Russia and America Today
— Center for a New American Security, 2 p.m.: Countering China's Digital Silk Road: Brazil
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: Strategic Trends 2025: A Trans-Atlantic Look Ahead
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Emily Lussier, who would make terrible Chinese spies.

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White House breaks ground on Trump projects to pave over Rose Garden grass, add flagpoles to lawns
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Newsweek
34 minutes ago
- Newsweek
The Scholar Who Predicted America's Breakdown Says It's Just Beginning
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"Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability," Turchin wrote in the journal Nature in 2010, forecasting a spike in unrest around 2020, driven by economic inequality, "elite overproduction" and rising public debt. A protestor holds up a Mexican flag as burning cars line the street on June 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Tensions in the city remain high after the Trump administration called in the National... A protestor holds up a Mexican flag as burning cars line the street on June 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. Tensions in the city remain high after the Trump administration called in the National Guard against the wishes of city leaders following two days of clashes with police during a series of immigration raids. More Photo byNow, with the nation consumed by polarization in the early months of a second Donald Trump presidency, institutional mistrust at all-time highs, and deepening political conflict, Turchin's prediction appears to have landed with uncanny accuracy. In the wake of escalating protests and the deployment of National Guard troops to Los Angeles under President Trump's immigration crackdown, Turchin spoke with Newsweek about the latest escalation of political turbulence in the United States—and the deeper structural forces he believes have been driving the country toward systemic crisis for more than a decade. Predicting Chaos In his 2010 analysis published by Nature, Turchin identified several warning signs in the domestic electorate: stagnating wages, a growing wealth gap, a surplus of educated elites without corresponding elite jobs, and an accelerating fiscal deficit. All of these phenomena, he argued, had reached a turning point in the 1970s. 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Turchin's forecast is based on a framework known as Structural-Demographic Theory (SDT), which models how historical forces—economic inequality, elite competition, and state capacity—interact to drive cycles of political instability. Courtesy Peter Turchin "Structural-Demographic Theory enables us to analyze historical dynamics and apply that understanding to current trajectories," Turchin said. "It's not prophecy. It's modeling feedback loops that repeat with alarming regularity." He argues that violence in the U.S. tends to repeat about every 50 years— pointing to spasms of unrest around 1870, 1920, 1970 and 2020. He links these periods to how generations tend to forget what came before. "After two generations, memories of upheaval fade, elites begin to reorganize systems in their favor, and the stress returns," he said. One of the clearest historical parallels to now, he notes, is the 1970s. That decade saw radical movements emerge from university campuses and middle-class enclaves not just in the U.S., but across the West. The far-left Weather Underground movement, which started as a campus organization at the University of Michigan, bombed government buildings and banks; the Red Army Faction in West Germany and Italy's Red Brigades carried out kidnappings and assassinations. These weren't movements of the dispossessed, but of the downwardly mobile—overeducated and politically alienated. "There's a real risk of that dynamic resurfacing," Turchin said. A 'Knowledge Class' Critics have sometimes questioned the deterministic tone of Turchin's models. But he emphasizes that he does not predict exact events—only the risk factors and phases of systemic stress. While many political analysts and historians point to Donald Trump's 2016 election as the inflection point for the modern era of American political turmoil, Turchin had charted the warning signs years earlier — when Trump was known, above all, as the host of a popular NBC reality show. President Donald Trump takes part in a signing ceremony after his inauguration on January 20, 2025 in the President's Room at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. President Donald Trump takes part in a signing ceremony after his inauguration on January 20, 2025 in the President's Room at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. Melina Mara-Pool/Getty Images "As you know, in 2010, based on historical patterns and quantitative indicators, I predicted a period of political instability in the United States beginning in the 2020s," Turchin said to Newsweek. "The structural drivers behind this prediction were threefold: popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and a weakening state capacity." According to his model, Trump's rise was not the cause of America's political crisis but a symptom—emerging from a society already strained by widening inequality and elite saturation. In Turchin's view, such figures often arise when a growing class of counter-elites—ambitious, credentialed individuals locked out of power—begin to challenge the status quo. "Intraelite competition has increased even more, driven now mostly by the shrinking supply of positions for them," he said. In 2025, he pointed to the impact of AI in the legal profession and recent government downsizing, such as the DOGE eliminating thousands of positions at USAID, as accelerants in this trend. This theory was echoed by Wayne State University sociologist Jukka Savolainen, who argued in a recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. is risking the creation of a radicalized "knowledge class"—overeducated, underemployed, and institutionally excluded. "When societies generate more elite aspirants than there are roles to fill, competition for status intensifies," Savolainen wrote. "Ambitious but frustrated people grow disillusioned and radicalized. Rather than integrate into institutions, they seek to undermine them." Peter Turchin forecasted a spike in unrest around 2020, driven by economic inequality, elite overproduction, and rising public debt. Peter Turchin forecasted a spike in unrest around 2020, driven by economic inequality, elite overproduction, and rising public debt. Courtesy of Peter Turchin Savolainen warned that Trump-era policies—such as the dismantling of D.E.I. and academic research programs and cuts to public institutions—have the potential to accelerate the pattern, echoing the unrest of the 1970s. "President Trump's policies could intensify this dynamic," he noted. "Many are trained in critique, moral reasoning, and systems thinking—the very profile of earlier generations of radicals." Structural Drivers Turchin, who is now an emeritus professor at UConn, believes the American system entered what he calls a "revolutionary situation"—a historical phase in which the destabilizing conditions can no longer be absorbed by institutional buffers. Reflecting on the last few years in a recent post on his Cliodynamica newsletter, he wrote that "history accelerated" after 2020. He and colleague Andrey Korotayev had tracked rising incidents of anti-government demonstrations and violent riots across Western democracies in the lead-up to that year. Their findings predicted a reversal of prior declines in unrest. "And then history accelerated," he wrote. "America was slammed by the pandemic, George Floyd, and a long summer of discontent." A police officer points a hand cannon at protesters who have been detained pending arrest on South Washington Street in Minneapolis, May 31, 2020, as protests continued following the death of George Floyd. A police officer points a hand cannon at protesters who have been detained pending arrest on South Washington Street in Minneapolis, May 31, 2020, as protests continued following the death of George Floyd. AP Photo/John Minchillo, File While many saw Trump's 2020 election loss and the January 6 Capitol riot that followed as its own turning point in that hectic period, Turchin warned that these events did not mark an end to the turbulence. "Many commentators hastily concluded that things would now go back to normal. I disagreed," he wrote. "The structural drivers for instability—the wealth pump, popular immiseration, and elite overproduction/conflict—were still running hot," Turchin continued. "America was in a 'revolutionary situation,' which could be resolved by either developing into a full-blown revolution, or by being defused by skillful actions of the governing elites. Well, now we know which way it went." These stressors, he argues, are not isolated. They are systemwide pressures building for years, playing out in feedback loops. "Unfortunately," he told Newsweek, "all these trends are only gaining power."