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Spectator
a day ago
- Business
- Spectator
Is China cooking the books on its economy?
A Western financial analyst based in Shanghai once described China's economic statistics to me as 'one of greatest works of contemporary Chinese fiction'. Not even the Communist party's (CCP) own officials believed them. A cottage industry of esoteric techniques developed to try and measure what was really going on, ranging from diesel and electricity demand to the fluctuating levels of the country's chronic air pollution, car sales, traffic congestion, job postings and construction – even the sale of underwear or pickled vegetables. One enterprising analyst regularly sent spies to Shanghai port to count the ships and throughput of trucks. I thought about that conversation again this week when China's National Bureau of Statistics published new figures claiming that the economy grew by 5.2 per cent in the three months to the end of June and thereby 'withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges'. Growth figures have always been political rather than economic in China but have become even more so as Beijing seeks to demonstrate that its economy is resilient enough to withstand any further tariffs that Donald Trump might throw at it should their fragile trade truce break down. I have no idea what new techniques the hapless Shanghai analysts are now deploying, but questioning the official figures has become increasingly dangerous in the China of President Xi Jinping. Shortly before Christmas, Gao Sanwen, a top economist and former official at China's central bank, cast doubt on official figures, telling a conference in Washington DC that China's growth over recent years was likely just 2 per cent, which is less than half what the government had claimed. Gao then promptly disappeared from view. Online commentaries in which he had also highlighted soaring unemployment, China's 'dispirited youth' and 'disenchanted middle-aged' were deleted by censors. A few months earlier, Zhu Hengpeng, a top economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Economics also disappeared after making disparaging remarks about Xi Jinping's economic stewardship in what he thought was a private online chat group. It is more difficult than ever to tell what is really going on with the Chinese economy since the CCP has effectively criminalised pessimism. The Ministry of State Security, its main spy agency, has declared that gloom about the economy is a foreign smear and that 'false theories about 'China's deterioration' are being circulated to attack China's unique socialist system'. It could well be that China's economy did get a bounce in the three months to the end of June as factories ramped up production and pumped out more exports in order to beat any future tariffs. The government has also attempted to boost consumer demand with a trade-in programme worth an estimated $42 billion (£31.3 billion) so far this year, covering a range of consumer goods, from washing machines to electric vehicles (EVs), air conditioners, smartphones and tablets. Xi has pledged to 'fully unleash' China's consumers, but retail sales actually slowed in June, with consumers cautious in the face of a continuing property slump and a deteriorating jobs market. Housing accounts for around 70 per cent of Chinese household wealth, and with prices continuing to fall, consumers appear to be in no mood to be unleashed. Meanwhile, the CCP has begrudgingly acknowledged that the economy is chronically overproducing, notably in renewable tech, such as batteries, EVs and solar panels – though the party will not bring itself to use that term. Instead, it has embraced the term 'involution' (neijuan in mandarin), which describes what it sees as unhealthy and self-destructive competition, which it acknowledges is fuelling deflation and undermining growth. What it doesn't acknowledge is that this is a direct result of its own policies – the enormous subsidies thrown at these industries, which in turn is fuelling global wariness about being the target of Chinese exporters desperate to dump this stuff. The CCP has set a full-year growth target of around 5 per cent, and by hook or by crook it will hit that, no matter what is really going on in the economy. It is not simply a matter of the Chinese government cooking the books, since creating this particular work of fiction is more complex than that. The Chinese economy is a surreal organism, which simply can't be measured by the tools that would usually be brought to bear in other developed economies. The system creates perverse incentives whereby officials at every level are under enormous pressure to manipulate data in order to be seen to fulfil the party's growth targets, for which they are rewarded or punished. Add to that mix a brewing trade war with America and you are left with statistics that are more political and untrustworthy than ever. My Shanghai analyst soon found another proxy for measuring economic activity – the throughput of visitors at Shanghai Disneyland. I said that felt a little far-fetched, which he acknowledged, but pointed out that a morning in the company of Mickey Mouse was a lot more fun and potentially more productive than dealing with officials at the National Bureau of Statistics.
AllAfrica
a day ago
- Business
- AllAfrica
Signs mount Xi under pressure to cede some power
Political and economic pressures might force Chinese President and overall leader Xi Jinping to delegate some of his powers to his deputies in a highly significant move. This has prompted some observers and media outlets to speculate that Xi's grip on power may be waning. A major part of why this is happening is likely to stem from Xi's difficulties in dealing with China's economic woes, which began with a real estate crisis in 2021. For years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has relied on providing economic prosperity to legitimize its rule over the country. But the continuously lackluster performance of the Chinese economy over the past four years and Trump's trade war with Beijing are making recovery a difficult task. And this is likely to be a factor that undermines Xi's rule. These rumors about Xi started just after the latest meeting, on June 30, of the Politburo (the principal policy-making body of the party), which brings China's top leaders together to make major decisions. For people who don't follow Chinese politics, the idea of Xi delegating some authority might seem nothing special. However, in understanding China, it's important to understand that Xi has massive power, and it seems the Politburo is signaling there are some changes on the horizon. Symbolism and indirect language play an important role in how the Communist Party communicates with Chinese people. The way it is done comes through slogans or key phrases, which are collectively known as 'tifa' (提法). This method of information is important since it shapes political language and debate and influences how a Chinese audience and an international audience understand what is going on. At first glance, the Politburo's call for enhancing 'policy coordination' and the 'review process' of major tasks may appear to indicate that the central government is seeking to ensure local officials follow through with Beijing's agenda. But there is probably more to the Politburo's statement than meets the eye. The statement said that specialized bodies that exist within the party's central committee, which includes the powerful commissions that Xi's loyalists now hold, should focus on 'guidance and coordination over major initiatives' and 'avoid taking over others' functions or overstepping boundaries.' For experienced China watchers, there are hints here that this powerful decision-making body is making a veiled threat against Xi for holding on to too much power. But the opaque nature of China's elite decision-making process, where a great deal of backroom politics occurs behind closed doors, means that decoding its messages isn't always easy. Because of all of this, there is increasing speculation that a power struggle is in progress. This isn't entirely surprising given that Xi's purge of many senior party officials through anti-corruption campaigns and his dominance over the highest levels of government are likely to have earned him many enemies over the years. Another sign that all isn't going well with Xi's regime is the removal of some of his allies from key positions within the government. Xi began his anti-corruption campaign in 2012 when he became China's leader. On paper, while the campaign is officially framed as a drive to clean up corruption, evidence suggests that it may have been used to remove Xi's political rivals. The problem for Xi is that the campaign is being used against his loyalists as well. In October 2023, Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was considered a Xi ally, was sacked due to what were later confirmed in 2024 to be corruption charges. But the dismissals of Xi loyalists continued. Admiral Miao Hua, who was in charge of ideological control and personnel appointment within the armed forces and Xi's associate since his days as a party official in Fujian province, was suspended from office in November 2024. And in June 2025, he was removed after being investigated for corruption. The previous month, General He Weidong, who was vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission, was also arrested for alleged corruption. Are the purges a consequence of Xi ceding ground to political rivals? This is a possibility. But even if it weren't and the purges are part of a concerted effort to stamp out corruption, Xi's campaign will not only cast aspersions on his ability to appoint the right people into government, but also create a climate of fear among allies and potentially create further enemies. Either scenario puts Xi on the spot. But since Xi became China's head of state in 2013, he and his loyalists have taken over leadership of many key national commissions, making him the most powerful Chinese leader since the time of Chairman Mao. These commissions include the Central Financial Commission, which regulates China's financial markets, the Central Science and Technology Commission, which aims to accelerate China's technological progress, and the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, which regulates China's digital content. But it looks like Xi is about to delegate some of his power, and there are some other decisions that may indicate a shift. For the first time since coming into power in 2012, Xi skipped the annual summit organized by the BRICS group (named after Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa,) Instead, from July 5 to 7 this year, Chinese Premier Li Qiang led a delegation to Rio de Janeiro. This isn't the first time that Li has represented Xi in high-profile conferences abroad. In September 2023, Li attended the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, and has taken part in ASEAN summits. But the BRICS appearance alongside with Li's increasingly prominent role in economic policymaking may suggest that his influence is on the rise, while Xi's is declining. Watch this space. Chee Meng Tan is an assistant professor of business economics, University of Nottingham. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Anti-competitive practices in power sector: CCP raids on offices of four companies suspected of bid rigging in tenders
ISLAMABAD: In a major enforcement action to curb anti-competitive practices in the power sector, the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) conducted simultaneous raids on the offices of four companies suspected of bid rigging in tenders for the supply of transformer reclamation material to power distribution companies (DISCOs). The coordinated raids were carried out by CCP's authorised officers in Lahore and Gujranwala, targeting suppliers who are alleged to have colluded in manipulating the bidding process. These companies were found to be quoting identical prices and engaging in tender rotation — a classic hallmark of cartel behaviour. The action follows a formal complaint lodged by the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO), which observed suspicious bidding patterns in recent procurement cycles. LESCO reported that multiple firms submitted bids with identical rates for various items, raising red flags regarding possible collusion. In response, the CCP initiated a formal enquiry under Section 4 of the Competition Act, 2010, which prohibits agreements that restrict competition, including bid rigging under Section 4(2)(e). A preliminary analysis of the bidding data revealed that certain companies appeared to be coordinating their bids to ensure pre-determined outcomes in tender awards. In some cases, these suppliers were found rotating their wins while maintaining price parity, thereby undermining the competitive tendering process and harming public procurement efficiency. This is not the first time CCP has uncovered such practices in the transformer materials market. In 2020, the Commission concluded a similar enquiry involving bid rigging by multiple vendors supplying transformer bushings and reclamation items to DISCOs, including LESCO, MEPCO, and GEPCO. In that case, CCP found collusion among at least five firms, and imposed significant penalties. The recurrence of such practices underscores systemic vulnerabilities in the public procurement mechanisms of the power sector and the need for stronger oversight by procuring agencies. If the ongoing investigation confirms collusive conduct, the Commission is empowered to issue show-cause notices to the implicated firms and proceed with hearings. Upon establishing contravention, CCP may impose penalties of up to 10% of annual turnover or PKR 75 million, whichever is higher. In addition, the Commission can recommend structural or behavioural remedies to prevent recurrence and restore market integrity. The CCP has urged the public, including procurement officers, business insiders, and concerned citizens, to come forward with credible information about cartelization or bid rigging. The Commission's Whistleblower Reward Scheme offers cash rewards ranging from PKR 200,000 to PKR 2 million, based on the quality and value of the information provided. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Asahi Shimbun
a day ago
- Politics
- Asahi Shimbun
Taiwan will 'not provoke confrontation' with China, vice president says
TAIPEI—Taiwan will not provoke a confrontation with China, the self-ruled island's vice president said Friday, lamenting Beijing's 'aggressive military posturing' against the island democracy that China claims as its own. 'We do not seek conflict. We will not provoke confrontation,' said Bi-khim Hsiao, adding that her government has urged Beijing to communicate 'with parity and respect.' Hsiao, who has served under Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te since their election win last year, said her government has seen 'a dramatic uptick in provocative and proactive CCP efforts to infiltrate, sabotage and divide our society," referring to the Chinese Communist Party. China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory and has repeatedly threatened to annex it, by force if necessary. In recent years, Beijing has ramped up its military intimidation of the island, sending jets and ships nearby almost daily. China refuses to speak with Hsiao and Lai and has labeled them 'diehard 'Taiwan independence' separatists,' a designation for which it has threatened the death penalty. In a notable attempt of alleged intimidation by Beijing, Czech intelligence officials last month said Chinese diplomats planned to stage a car crash during Hsiao's 2024 visit to the country. No crash occurred, but a Chinese official ran a red light while following Hsiao's car. Speaking at the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents' Club in Taipei, Hsiao said she has experienced 'varying degrees of pressure and threats' over the years, including sanctions by China. 'But I will not let that intimidate me or stop me from voicing my views or from voicing the views of the people of Taiwan, and we will continue to be active in the international community,' she said. Regarding recurring U.S. intelligence reports that China may be planning to invade Taiwan before 2027, Hsiao said her government is focused on preempting that. 'Everything we are doing right now is to prevent such a conflict from happening — not just in 2027, but ever,' she said. Taiwan is 'very urgently investing in our self-defense capabilities' in order to deter 'any miscalculation and any attempt at disrupting the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,' she added. Taiwan on Friday wrapped up annual military drills, which simulated defenses against a possible invasion by China. The drills included fortifying ports and possible Chinese landing points on the island, as well as civil defense exercises. Taiwan sources most of its weapons from the United States, which is bound by its own laws to provide the island with the means to defend itself. Like most countries, the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as country, but acts as its main unofficial ally. Washington supports preserving the status quo in Taipei's relationship with Beijing, which means neither side should make a move toward independence or annexation, respectively. Taiwan's relationship with the U.S. is 'very important' and has historically held through different administrations while garnering bipartisan congressional support, Hsiao said. Trade negotiators from the two sides are working 'around the clock' to reach a deal that would pre-empt tariffs of 32% on all Taiwanese goods from coming into effect Aug. 1, she said. Washington lowered tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 10% for 90 days to allow for the trade talks. The tariffs are part of duties President Donald Trump levied against nearly all U.S. trading partners beginning in April, accusing them of running large trade surpluses.
Sky News AU
a day ago
- Politics
- Sky News AU
'All symbolism and no spine': Albanese leaving China with questions on whether Australia will throw Taiwan to the wolves is unsettling
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese smiled for the cameras on the Great Wall of China this week sending the wrong message to our allies but the right one to President Xi Jinping. We cannot pretend this was simply a friendly diplomatic visit. It was scheduled while we were shoulder-to-shoulder with the US and Japan who undertook a massive war games exercise involving 40,000 personnel from 19 nations. The military message to China was crystal clear - any 'act of aggression' in the Asia-Pacific won't go unanswered because America and its partners are prepared to respond. Together. Our Prime Minister was meanwhile being feted by the very regime causing military tension along our eastern seaboard and after six days got nothing meaningful in return. You can bet the narrative would be very different if it were six days in the US with President Donald Trump. That relationship, meanwhile, chafes with neglect. As guests of the CCP, Australia got a 'no immediate outcome' on the release of incarcerated Australian writer Yang Hengju, imprisoned for six years now by Chinese authorities on spying charges, or the other Australian detainees. Yes, we got a promise that China will give us more notice before launching military exercises near our coast. But that's a token gesture. Firm commitments on trade? Nope. But Mr Albanese did get a thumbs up from state-owned media China Daily which patronisingly declared that we, as a nation, now have a 'clearer understanding' of China's focus than former PM Scott Morrison. Backhanded compliment does not even begin to describe this type of propaganda. And then there's Taiwan and when pressed on it, Mr Albanese got testy and defensive. Standing near the Wall, he had to clarify our stance on Taiwan after China Daily claimed he told Mr Xi Jinping face-to-face that Australia does not support the island's independence. It was a meeting that subsequently made many people wonder just how far our federal government is willing to acquiesce. And more evidence too of the PM's prickliness we are becoming all too familiar with: 'Well, you're trying to quote a Chinese read-out that I haven't seen. What we do is continue to support a one-China policy. We support the status quo,' Mr Albanese told reporters. This government talks tough on democracy when it suits them, like fashionable support for Ukraine, but what about when we claim to back vulnerable Taiwan in its arm wrestle with China? Beijing is not fooled for one second, relieved even. The issue became a diplomatic quicksand and the Chinese government got the headline it wanted. Also, my ears pricked up when the PM gushed about a dinner in the Great Hall on Tuesday evening where he was joined by leaders including Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Guests ate their meal whilst a cover band rolled out some Aussie classics, such as Midnight Oils' Power and the Passion. 'That obviously took them a long period of time and those gestures matter,' enthused Mr Albanese of the musical choices which included Paul Kelly's anthem To Her Door. 'Respect matters between countries."Mr Albanese added: 'Powderfinger as well. They did the full kit and caboodle and so it was a splendid occasion.' Splendid? It was certainly a very clever choice of Midnight Oil song by the CCP with quite the subliminal the 1980s Lucky Country, the Oils ruled the Top 40 with their savage and brilliant lyrics which shamelessly politicised rock music. As a child, I'd never heard anything like them, let alone seen a performer like bald, wild-eyed Peter Garrett and his sweaty, angular dance moves.' It's better to die on your feet than live on your knees,' Power and the Passion goes. 'Oh the power and the passion… sometimes you've got to take the hardest line.' But Mr Albanese took the softest line. All symbolism and no spine. He referenced Gough Whitlam's legacy to remind us of Labor's historic ties to China. But Mr Whitlam didn't fly to Beijing to be applauded, wined, dined and applauded again. In 1973, he opened the door to Australia's first official relationship with a communist regime which was, at the time, a bold move. Mr Whitlam also gets mention in that Oils song - 'tough 'til he hit the rough' - no doubt to the PM's delight. Mr Albanese, on the other hand, seemed content on his China trip to be serenaded and flattered. Or as Mr Garrett sang: 'It's just enough to make you want to cry'. Louise Roberts is a journalist and editor who has worked as a TV and radio commentator in Australia, the UK and the US. Louise is a winner of the Peter Ruehl Award for Outstanding Columnist in the NRMA Kennedy Awards for Excellence in Journalism and has been shortlisted in other awards for her opinion work
