Where do Turkey, Iran and Israel fit in Trump's reset of US-Arab relations?
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
May 18, 2025
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The National
2 hours ago
- The National
Who are the main players in Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections?
On November 11, Iraqis will head to the polls in their country's sixth parliamentary elections since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein 's regime. These elections are expected to be highly competitive amid growing stakes surrounding their outcome. A radical change to the structure of the existing political system, which has been in place since 2003, is not expected. Rather, the outcomes are likely to recalibrate the weights of the traditional political parties and therefore the distribution of power and influence within the ruling structure. The polls will be governed by an electoral law that was amended in March 2023 despite objections from protesters and independent politicians. These amendments could make it harder for independent candidates and small parties to compete against bigger parties and to reach the legislative body. There is no indication whether or not the powerful Shiite cleric and political leader Moqtada Al Sadr will take part in the elections. Mr Al Sadr withdrew from the political process when he failed to form a majority government with only Sunni and Kurdish parties after winning 73 of the 329 seats in parliament in the 2021 polls. Iran-backed armed factions are seeking political clout after coming under unprecedented pressure since the start of the war on Gaza. They are either standing in the elections alone or within coalitions. According to the Independent High Electoral Commission, there are 343 registered political parties in the country, and another 60 are being formed. Of those, 118 parties and 25 coalitions have confirmed their participation in November's elections, according to the commission. The nature of these coalitions reflects the divisions among the main three ethnic and religious groups: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. They also reflect the desire of the powerful political players to reduce their rivals' influence within each group and exclude them from the decision-making centres. What are the main coalitions? The Reconstruction and Development Coalition This coalition is led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is attempting to create a new equation in the competition among the Shiite parties, setting his eyes on a second term in office. The coalition consists of several political groups, as well as political and economic figures. Among his main allies are the US-sanctioned chairman of the paramilitary Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) Falih Al Fayyadh, and the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, Ahmed Al Asadi, who also leads Kataib Jund Al Imam armed faction. Others are the National Coalition led by former prime minister Ayad Allawi, the National Alliance of Solutions led by one of the PM's advisers, Mohammed Sahib Al Daraji, Karbala Creativity Alliance and The Generations Gathering. The biggest challenge facing Mr Al Sudani's coalition is lack of support from key factions within the Coordination Framework, an umbrella group of Iran-backed political parties and militias which controls the majority of seats in parliament. Top among them is the State of Law Coalition led by former prime minster Nouri Al Maliki. State of Law Coalition This is considered one of the most prominent Shiite alliances. It has grassroots support in central and southern parts of the country, relying heavily on the weight of Mr Al Maliki, who served two terms in office from 2006 to 2014 and still has significant influence within state institutions. One of Mr Al Maliki's strategies is to form or support lists in Sunni and Sunni-dominated areas to expand his influence and weaken his rivals. For the first time in years, Mr Al Maliki announced he is running in the elections, in a move seen as an attempt to counter Mr Al Sudani. Badr List It is led by senior politician Hadi Al Amiri, who heads the Badr Brigade, one of the oldest Iran-aligned militias, which dates back to 1980s Iraq-Iran war. Other medium-sized and small militia groups have joined the list in some parts of the country. Like the head of the State of Law Coalition, Mr Al Amiri is running for the first time in years. Al Sadiqoun List This is affiliated to the influential Asaib Ahl Al Haq armed faction led by Shiite cleric Qais Al Khazali. AAH is one of the main backers of Mr Al Sudani's government and its members hold senior government positions. In December 2019, the Treasury Department blacklisted Mr Al Khazali, along with two militia leaders. The National State Forces Alliance The coalition is led by Shiite cleric Ammar Al Hakim. One of his main allies is former prime minister Haider Al Abadi, who oversaw the fight against ISIS from 2014 to the end of 2017 when he announced that the group had been defeated. The coalition presents itself as a moderate and a reformist political group that seeks to move beyond the sectarian divisions. It relies heavily on the symbolic stature of Mr Al Hakim, who is from a prominent Shiite religious family. The Hoquq Movement A political group backed by Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful armed faction within the Axis of Resistance – an Iran-backed umbrella group for militias in the region. It sent fighters to Syria after civil war broke out in 2011 to support president Bashar Al Assad and launched attacks against US troops in Iraq and Syria. Takadum Coalition This is led by former parliament speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi, who has emerged as a prominent Sunni political leader in recent years. Most of his support comes from his home province of Al Anbar, in western Iraq, where he formerly served as governor. The alliance also includes independent politicians, technocrats and tribal leaders from Al Anbar and other Sunni-dominated provinces. Siyada Coalition The coalition is led by Sunni tycoon Khamis Al Khanjar. In 2021, it emerged as the largest Sunni coalition but it quickly disintegrated when Mr Al Halbousi broke away. Mr Al Khanjar enjoys tribal support mainly in Al Anabr and Salaheddin provinces as well as regional support from countries such as Turkey and Qatar. Azem Alliance Led by Sunni politician Muthana Al Samarraie, this coalition emerged in 2021 following deep disagreements and political divisions between Mr Al Khanjar and Mr Al Halbousi. The Kurdistan Democratic Party One of the two major parties in the Iraq Kurdish region, it is led by prominent Kurdish politician Masoud Barzani. KDP dominates the provinces of Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan Region, and Dahuk, maintaining control over the regional government and presidency. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan This is the KDP's main rival, which is led by Bafel Talabani and controls Sulaymaniyah and Halabja provinces. Both KDP and PUK, who have a delicate power-sharing arrangement to run the region, used to run national elections in one list along with other small Kurdish parties, but in recent years they have participated separately. The New Generation Movement It is the newest and most dynamic opposition political party in the Kurdistan region, led by businessman Shaswar Abdul Wahid. It was established as a popular reaction to what was widely perceived as corruption and monopolisation of power by the two traditional parties KDP and PUK. October 2024 parliamentary elections in the region.
The National
11 hours ago
- The National
Lebanon's new government wins praise for first 100 days but there is a long road ahead
It is vital to look both ways now when crossing Riad Al Solh, a street in downtown Beirut between the parliament and the Grand Serail. In a highly secured zone, for years the only vehicles allowed through were those belonging to Lebanon 's military forces, MPs and the convoy of parliament speaker Nabih Berri racing to attend sessions. Now Riad Al Solh resembles a busy street again, as cars and motorbikes jostle for space. The area was closed off in 2019 amid a wave of anti-government protests, and concrete barriers were erected. While the wall was pulled down in 2022, restrictions still applied in the once-vibrant area that in recent years resembled a closed off fortress. The decision to reopen the area in a bid to restore life 'in the heart of the capital' was taken by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and his new government, which came in following the election of President Joseph Aoun in January. It may seem like an almost inconsequential move in a country that already had such deep-seated problems even before Israel's war last year reduced vast swathes of Lebanon to rubble. But it was a step by the country's new leaders seeking a break from the past and trying to rebuild trust with a population reeling from economic crises, deep divisions, corruption and weak governance. Elected to fanfare, and led by the mild-mannered former ICJ head judge Mr Salam, how is the government performing 100 days after the cabinet gained parliament's confidence? 'It's not about being flashy' Diplomats and humanitarian officials have praised the government's practical steps in the face of the mighty tasks ahead. Multiple western diplomatic sources said they were optimistic about the Lebanon's new government and its genuine effort to make reforms, despite the pressure on it. 'It's not about being flashy,' said a senior humanitarian official in the country. 'It's about good realistic governance.' The source spoke of an increased climate of trust when dealing with the new government compared to its predecessor. 'It does have accomplishments it can be proud of,' Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations at Beirut's Saint Joseph University, said. He cited breakthroughs in the Beirut blast investigation, new appointments to the judiciary, the successful holding of municipal elections, including in areas where Israel continued to bomb, as well as the passing of a banking secrecy law and progress on reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund to secure a $3 billion loan. The investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast had been stalled by repeated legal impediments. Now it has not only resumed but the lead investigator has had his powers, which had been stripped by his own boss, fully restored. 'It seems the prosecutor is satisfied with the conditions under which he can act,' a senior government official told The National last month, noting that the investigation had resumed weeks after the arrival of a new government. The Lebanese Army has increased its deployment in south Lebanon as required by the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal last year. Despite that, Israeli attacks on the south continue and they remain entrenched in five points of Lebanese soil. The humanitarian source gave the example of education as a sector that has long been underfunded and reliant on foreign aid. New operating procedures allow the monitoring of teacher and student attendance and the financial management of schools. Small steps admittedly, but this helps to improve confidence in institutions and allows for a stronger argument for investment in a sector long reliant on donors. The basic salaries of teachers have also been increased. While still less than before the economic crisis hit, the current pay level is more sustainable and not fuelled by ad hoc short-term measures, the source said. Daunting task ahead But while there is optimism and some progress, the task ahead is daunting. Hezbollah remains very much armed and a potent threat, despite the push to constrain it. Israel continues to bomb south Lebanon daily and occupy five points. On Thursday night, Israel sent thousands celebrating Eid Al Adha in Beirut's southern suburbs fleeing when it carried out multiple air strikes on the area. And there is no reconstruction plan for a country which needs at least $11 billion to rebuild. The reality is that 100 days are not long enough to undo so many years of damage, especially for a country whose economic crisis in 2019 was blamed on decades of financial mismanagement and corruption by the ruling elite. Gone are the heady days of 2018 when annual GDP was around $55 billion. Now it is less than half that. The billions of dollars of depositors' savings are still stuck in banks with no real plan to recover them. In the autumn, a major investor conference will take place in Beirut, where its hoped that international players will be shown that 'Lebanon is back in business'. But in a country where the effects of disastrous financial mismanagement, corruption and deep rotted instability are constantly felt, how can those from the largest institutions to the smallest business owner be convinced? 'There is no easy answer,' Economy and Trade Minister Amer Bisat told The National. He left his job in New York as the global head of emerging markets at the world's largest asset manager BlackRock to take up his cabinet role this year. 'We have to be realistic, there is no button we can push to go back. It's thorny and complicated.' Observers are also cautious. While progress is promising, it has been slow in some areas or non-existent in others. Crucially, with parliamentary elections only a year away, the cabinet has only around 12 months of its mandate left. 'Definitely the government is trying to do its job, it's arguably one of the best governments [in recent years],' said Prof Bitar. 'However, this government has a life expectancy that is relatively short.' While the senior humanitarian source was full of praise for the new ministers, they conceded that the deep-rooted state bureaucracy is still a nightmare. Bold, almost vague, promises by Mr Salam to finally implement the 1989 Taif Accord and respect the constitution have not happened. So while the government could be remembered as one that made important changes, it is one that has only so much time left. There are no guarantees Mr Salam will be Prime Minister after next year's elections. However, it is likely the traditional ruling parties will still be represented in parliament, and there are no guarantees that the well-intentioned steps this government has taken will be continued. 'I don't think that small and quick steps will bring back the confidence of investors,' said Mr Bisat. 'What will bring it back will be that investors know we are fixing these issues. 'I am certain of that, I am certain that if we do our jobs and [meet our] obligations, we will be able to bring the economy back. But we need to convince investors we are doing our homework. 'The good news is we've started, especially through the working plan that the Prime Minister, President and government has put forward of how we will address these files.'
The National
13 hours ago
- The National
Iran warns European nations over move to censure it for nuclear 'non-compliance'
Iran 's Foreign Minister warned the UK, France and Germany on Friday against backing a resolution censuring Tehran at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency next week, saying such a move would be a "strategic mistake". "Instead of engaging in good faith, the E3 is opting for malign action against Iran at the IAEA Board of Governors," Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X. "Mark my words as Europe ponders another major strategic mistake: Iran will react strongly against any violation of its rights." Mr Araghchi's warning comes as the three European nations prepare to join the United States in backing a draft resolution to censure Iran at next week's board meeting, a diplomatic source told AFP. The resolution would accuse Iran of failing to meet its obligations as a signatory of the Nuclear No-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and carries the threat of referral to the UN Security Council if Tehran "does not show goodwill", the source added. The move follows a quarterly report from the IAEA last week which cited a "general lack of co-operation" from Iran and raised concerns over undeclared nuclear material. The UN's nuclear watchdog also expressed 'serious concern' that Iran had stepped up its enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade level in recent months. The report said Iran had an estimated 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 per cent as of May 17, up by 133.8kg since the last report in February. According to the IAEA, Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to enrich uranium to 60 per cent, which is close to the roughly 90 per cent level needed for atomic weapons. Iran has repeatedly denied that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran rejected the report as politically motivated and based on "forged documents" that it said had been provided by its arch foe Israel. In his post on X, Mr Araghchi said that despite "years of good co-operation with the IAEA – resulting in a resolution which shut down malign claims of a 'possible military dimension' (PMD) to Iran's peaceful nuclear programme – my country is once again accused of 'non-compliance'." "Falsely accusing Iran of violating safeguards – based on shoddy and politicised reporting – is clearly designed to produce a crisis," he said. The pressure on Iran comes as it holds indirect talks with the US, mediated by Oman, to reach an agreement that would see Tehran accept curbs on its nuclear activity in return for the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Washington. The two sides have held five rounds of talks since April 12 but are at odds over the issue of uranium enrichment, which produces fuel for nuclear reactors or, at higher levels of purity, material for nuclear warheads. Iran's leaders say that it has the right to enrich uranium under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and that the issue is "non-negotiable", while President Donald Trump insists that US will not allow enrichment to continue on Iranian soil. Tehran and Washington are seeking a new agreement to replace a 2015 deal with major powers which Mr Trump unilaterally abandoned during his first term in 2018. The agreement quickly unravelled as Mr Trump reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran, leading Tehran to begin breaching commitments it made under the pact including a 3.67 per cent cap on the level of its uranium enrichment. Britain, France and Germany, which were all party to the 2015 deal, are now considering whether to trigger a "snapback" of UN sanctions under its dispute resolution mechanism – an option that expires on the deal's 10th anniversary in October.
