Netanyahu's Gaza City plan a high-stakes risk
When anyone looks at the jungle of rubble, twisted metal and collapsed buildings that constitute the graveyard of Palestinian existence in the small but overcrowded strip of land called Gaza, one has to wonder who would want to resurrect it.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced last week that, against the advice of the Israeli military, including its chief of staff, his revised objective is the complete occupation of Gaza, even though Israel has always been the legal occupier. The security Cabinet approved a plan to take control of Gaza City. Israel's occupation of the city may take up to six months, meaning this operation will likely last into 2026. This can only be seen as a precursor to the annexation of all or large parts of the territory.
Until October 2023, anyone in Israel advocating the reoccupation of Gaza would have seen their credibility smashed in seconds. Why would Israel burden itself with this overcrowded hellhole and take on the responsibility of 2.3 million Palestinians?
But ambitions have changed and, for the 'Greater Israel' fan club, opportunities have arisen. For this extremist far-right Israeli government, the genocide it is enacting has created the opportunity to empty Gaza either through expulsion or extermination. Forced displacement has been used on a massive scale and Netanyahu's plan envisages emptying Gaza City itself. About 800,000 Palestinians will no doubt be forcibly displaced from the enclave's largest city to the so-called safe area at Al-Mawasi further south.
All this highlights how the Israeli military operations, which resumed in March when Israel broke the ceasefire, have utterly failed. Hostages have not been released and some of them killed. Hamas has not surrendered.
Israel's occupation of the city may take up to six months, meaning this operation will likely last into 2026.
Chris Doyle
The Israeli government will carry out this operation knowing it does not have the support of the military leadership, notably Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Serious questions abound as to whether the plan is workable. The number of divisions required is significant and calling up further reserves is incredibly politically sensitive within Israel. In addition, an ever-increasing segment of Israeli society is prepared to protest against this.
So, what is Netanyahu's game plan? He always has one.
Is this all intimidation, an attempt to bully Hamas into releasing the hostages, as well as surrendering its foothold in Gaza prior to leaving it once and for all?
Perhaps. But there are those on the Israeli right who cherish the dream of taking Gaza and bringing about Donald Trump's riviera plan, but with one major difference. It would be run by Israel and Israeli companies, not American ones.
Is this a strategic decision by Netanyahu or a gambit to put pressure on Hamas to surrender and disarm? Surrender and hand over the hostages, or else Israel annexes the territory. The answer perhaps is that it could be a bit of both. And Netanyahu is betting on both options to ensure he wins either way. Reoccupying the whole of Gaza and emptying Gaza City would placate his base and maintain his coalition. A collapse in Hamas, leading to a situation of surrender, would allow him to claim a historic victory that few would have foreseen. Netanyahu will then claim to have smashed both Hamas and Hezbollah, knocked Iran back and brought down the Assad regime. All these are questionable claims, but they are conceivably sellable in any Israeli election season, Netanyahu's top priority being to win elections and stay in power.
Is this a strategic decision by Netanyahu or a gambit to put pressure on Hamas to surrender and disarm?
Chris Doyle
To achieve this, the prime minister will have to sweet talk Trump, the only person who could single-handedly throw a spanner in the genocidal works. The trick so far has been to keep telling the Americans that there is just one more stage needed before Israel can bring a halt to its operations in Gaza. This same game has been played so many times. In the past, it was to invade Rafah. Most recently, it was Deir Al-Balah in the middle. Now it is Gaza City.
Netanyahu tried to be convincing, saying: 'The minute you collapse the center of gravity, the last true fortress left to Hamas in Gaza, Hamas falls apart.' There is always one more target to take out before this elusive victory is achieved.
Who knows if this will work. Trump has a well-known aversion to losers, so Netanyahu will have to maintain an aura of invincibility and political success. This may be tougher as he loses friends at home and abroad, but there is no sign of a breakdown in relations just yet. But even if the White House were to become disenchanted with the Israeli premier, that does not mean it would leap to the aid of the Palestinians or the hostages.
This operation is a high-stakes risk for Netanyahu, but whichever way it pans out, the Palestinians in Gaza will be denied any winning move. The debate within Israel is largely focused on how fast and hard to hit. As for peace and security in the region, these are just fantasies at present.
• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London.
X: @Doylech
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