Retail profit warnings more than double as high street pressures mount
Britain's retail sector has come under significant pressure since last autumn's Budget move to hike National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and the minimum wage, both taking effect in April.
But EY said the high street was also facing tough consumer spending challenges, with shoppers cutting back and focusing on value.
EY partner Silvia Rindone said the spike in retail warnings 'highlights both softening consumer demand and the deeper structural headwinds facing the sector'.
'Retailers we speak to tell us that falling sales are currently indicative of a longer-term shift, with consumers becoming more value-focused and less brand-loyal, which leaves cost-pressured retailers in a bind,' she said.
Tariff woes sparked by US President Donald Trump waging a trade war also featured heavily in the report, contributing to a rise in the number of alerts more widely across corporate plc.
The report found that the number of profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies rose by 20% to 59 in the second quarter compared with 49 a year ago.
The top factor was policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, cited in nearly half (46%) of all warnings – up from 4% a year earlier and the highest since the study was launched over 25 years ago.
Over one in three (34%) warnings flagged tariff-related impacts, such as weaker demand, supply chain disruption and volatility in currency movements.
The proportion of warnings to cite contract and order cancellations or delays remained at a record high of 40% in the quarter.
Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and turnaround and restructuring strategy leader, said: 'The latest profit warnings data reflects the scale of persistent uncertainty and how heavy it continues to weigh on UK businesses.
'While this uncertainty has been a recurring theme since mid-2024, it has intensified so far this year – driven largely by geopolitical tensions and policy shifts – compounding pressure on both earnings and forecasts.
'While the announcement of global tariffs has clearly played a part in amplifying uncertainty, they are just one factor among broader geopolitical and policy upheaval.'
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The Guardian
25 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Trump's war on windmills started in Scotland. Now he's taking it global
Donald Trump's bitter dislike of renewable energy first erupted publicly 14 years ago in a seemingly trivial spat over wind turbines visible from his Scottish golf course. As Trump returns to Scotland this week, though, he is using the US presidency to squash clean power, with major ramifications for the climate crisis and America's place in the world. Trump will visit his Turnberry and Aberdeenshire golf courses during the Scottish trip, the latter venue being the stage of a lengthy battle by the president to halt 11 nearby offshore wind turbines. From 2011, Trump, then a reality TV star and property mogul, argued the 'ugly' turbines visible from the Menie golf course were 'monstrosities' that would help sink Scotland's tourism industry. Although Trump failed in his legal attempt to halt the Scottish wind farm, an enduring scorn towards renewables appears to have been seeded that now has global consequences. As president, Trump has declared wind and solar projects unwelcome in the US, barring them from federal lands and signing a vast spending bill that demolishes support for a nascent industry that held the promise of revamping the American economy while cutting dangerous planet-heating pollution. 'I don't want windmills destroying our place,' Trump said shortly before signing the 'big, beautiful' bill that is set to severely curtail new clean energy projects. 'I don't want these solar things where they go for miles and they cover up half a mountain and they're ugly as hell.' Ahead of his latest visit to Scotland, where he will meet with the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, Trump called for the UK, too, to ramp up oil drilling and to ditch wind. 'They should get rid of the windmills and bring back the oil,' Trump said. 'The windmills are really detrimental to the beauty of Scotland and every other place they go up.' The cost of one, albeit very powerful, man's hostility will be steep. With the acquiescence of Republicans in Congress, hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in investment in clean energy and electric car facilities is set to be lost, with one union calling the legislation 'the biggest job-killing bill in the history of this country'. Americans' household power bills are expected to surge as the supply of cheap renewable energy falters, prompting utilities to turn to gas and coal that will emit an extra 7bn tonnes of carbon pollution by 2030. Scientists warn the world must rapidly eliminate emissions to avoid catastrophic climate impacts via heatwaves, flooding, drought and other unfolding maladies. This culmination of Trump's animus towards renewables has stunned those in Scotland who tangled with him over the wind farm before he burst into politics. 'At the time a lot of us thought the climate denial movement was on its deathbed,' said Patrick Harvie, co-leader of the Scottish Greens. 'Whether Donald Trump believes his lies or not, and I'm prepared to believe he's stupid or he's dishonest, he has damaged climate action around the world, including the US. 'Green tech is a huge part of the future of the economy and the scale of investment by China in this is extraordinary,' Harvie added. 'People will look back at this point as when the US gave up on the dominant energy technologies of the future and declined as a major power. Those in the US should recognize the incredible harm done to their national interest. For golf, of all things.' In 2012, Trump appeared at a Scottish parliamentary committee and sparred with Harvie, who he later accused of blasphemy. The hearing featured rhetoric from Trump that has now become familiar – that wind turbines are made in China, that they kill birds, are inefficient and are 'so ugly, so noisy and so dangerous' that they will 'lead to the almost total destruction of Scotland's tourism industry' and cause the country to 'go broke'. When pressed as to what evidence he had for such claims, Trump provided an answer that seemed to draw deep from his core psychology. 'I am the evidence,' he said. 'I am considered a world-class expert in tourism. When you ask, 'Where is the expert and where is the evidence?' I say: 'I am the evidence.'' Today, more than half of all Scotland's electricity comes from wind, nearly 2 million more tourists visit the country than in 2011 and the country has not gone broke. Renewable energy in the US isn't quite as dominant but has also grown quickly as costs have plummeted, with more than 90% of all capacity added to American grids last year coming from wind, solar and batteries rather than fossil fuels. Despite this, Trump has only escalated his incendiary invective toward renewables, claiming offshore wind turbines are 'driving the whales crazy' – there is little evidence for this – and stating shortly after his inauguration in January that 'we don't want windmills in this country'. Federal approvals for wind and solar projects have seized up and, earlier this month, Republicans in Congress pushed through a reconciliation spending bill that effectively gutted the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Joe Biden's signature legislation that provided tax credits to boost renewable energy, battery and electric vehicle manufacturing and deployment in the US. About three-quarters of the hundreds of billions of dollars in new clean energy investment has flowed to Republican-held districts since the IRA. Two dozen concerned GOP lawmakers across the House of Representatives and US Senate wrote to colleagues pleading for the retention of the tax credits to avoid 'sparking an energy crisis' that would kill off jobs and hike electricity bills. Ultimately, however, only one of these letter signatories, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, voted against the 'big, beautiful' bill. The Guardian contacted all of these lawmakers to ask why they voted for the legislation but only Andrew Garbarino, a New York representative, replied. 'We didn't get everything we wanted, but we got what we needed to make progress,' said Garbarino, who pointed out that the tax credits were in danger of ending immediately, rather than a phase-out that will see them mostly disappear by 2027. Trump had intervened in congressional negotiations to push for a swifter scrapping of the tax credits and secured more aid for fossil fuels in the form of a subsidy for steel-making coal. 'The president was a big factor, he was talking to the leadership in the House and Senate on making changes,' said someone familiar with the discussions. 'He's been consistent on wind and now he's bringing solar into the mix, which we didn't see in his first term.' The fossil fuel industry made record donations to Trump during his election campaign and the president has torn down pollution rules and opened up new areas to drilling since returning to the White House. Renewable projects, however, will face a blizzard of new paperwork for approvals under a new Trump edict. 'The president was clear about ending what he called the green new scam,' said Tom Pyle, president of the free market American Energy Alliance. 'There is a place for wind and solar but they don't need all of this lavishness foisted upon them.' This approach is 'utterly insane and destructive', according to Elon Musk, formerly Trump's adviser and favorite billionaire. 'It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.' Trump previously criticized electric cars, too, but announced he was purchasing a Tesla after allying with Musk and held a promotional event for the car brand at the White House before a rift developed between the two. For Democrats who bet that spreading the benefits of the energy transition to rural, Republican areas would secure broad political support for renewables, the setback has been sobering. 'It's really bizarre, it's the strangest thing I've ever seen in politics,' said Gina McCarthy, who was Biden's top climate adviser, on the Republicans voting for the clean energy rollback. 'A lot of this is pure and simply what Trump wanted to do and it breaks my heart to see people who have done great work in the administration have to kowtow to someone like this president. Trump has been acting like a dictator since he came into office because Republicans allowed him that luxury.' The loss of new clean electricity capacity, at a time when demand for power in the US is increasing due to advances in artificial intelligence, is set to be significant. By 2035, the amount power added to the grid will be about 600GW less than it would have been without the bill, according to an estimate by Rhodium, which is equivalent to nearly half of all current installed electricity capacity in the US today. The contrast to China, the world's largest emitter but already building more wind and solar capacity than all other countries combined, is dizzying. By 2035, China is expected to add 4660GW of solar and 860GW of wind power, according to the International Energy Agency – about 15 times more than what the US is now forecast to install over this period. Last year, China hit its goal for half of new car sales to be electric, a decade earlier than planned. The divergent paths of the world's two superpowers on energy is now stark – in May, China installed solar panels at a rate of 100 every second. 'China is running rings around us, it's clear they will be the beneficiaries of all of this,' said McCarthy. A 15-year head start China had in the clean energy race will now extend out further, to the point that few senior Chinese officials now view the US as a competitor, according to Li Shuo, an expert in China's climate policies at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'I don't think US companies will ever be able to compete with Chinese counterparts in wind, solar, batteries, EVs – all the components of decarbonization,' said Li. 'That dynamic is now here to stay. The last chance for the US to jump on the green bandwagon has left the station.' As he arrives in Scotland, it's unlikely Trump will be troubled by this, nor any of the protests that usually greet him when he visits a country that he lauds for being the birthplace of his mother, Mary, a Gaelic speaker from the Isle of Lewis. Asked about Trump's dislike of renewables, a White House spokesman said the president and those who voted for him 'are not interested in advancing scam energy industries that embolden our adversaries, stifle domestic energy production, and raise prices for countless Americans'. The reconciliation bill is 'a complete overhaul of the Biden administration's slush fund for the green new deal lobby and will further unleash the might of America's energy dominance while continuing to lower costs for millions of families', he added. Harvie said it was hard to know exactly why Trump has maintained his dislike of clean energy because of his 'irrational' demeanor but that his stance was opposed by most people in Scotland. 'A large majority of people here have a very negative attitude towards him, because of climate change, his racism, his economic policies or just his grotesque personal manner,' he said. 'I mean the list of reasons to have distaste for Donald Trump is far too long to complete. 'I'm not sure he's emotionally capable of admitting he's wrong on anything but people in Scotland recognize he's wrong. I hope a great many more people in the US come to recognize that, too.' The best public interest journalism relies on first-hand accounts from people in the know. If you have something to share on this subject you can contact us confidentially using the following methods. Secure Messaging in the Guardian app The Guardian app has a tool to send tips about stories. Messages are end to end encrypted and concealed within the routine activity that every Guardian mobile app performs. This prevents an observer from knowing that you are communicating with us at all, let alone what is being said. If you don't already have the Guardian app, download it (iOS/Android) and go to the menu. Select 'Secure Messaging'. SecureDrop, instant messengers, email, telephone and post See our guide at for alternative methods and the pros and cons of each.
The Independent
42 minutes ago
- The Independent
Councils set for windfall under new recycling scheme
English councils are poised to receive a substantial £1.1 billion in recycling funding, sourced directly from fees levied on companies for the packaging they produce. This marks a significant shift from the current system, where local authorities have historically shouldered the cost of disposing of items like milk bottles and cereal boxes, funded by taxpayers. The new Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) scheme, set to come into force this year, will mandate businesses to contribute financially towards the recycling of their packaging. Companies will begin paying these fees from November, with charges varying based on how difficult the material is to recycle. It is anticipated that this initiative will incentivise businesses to reduce their packaging use, transition to more easily recyclable materials, and invest in circular economy innovations. Ultimately, the goal is to significantly cut the volume of waste sent to landfills or incinerators. The Environment Department (Defra) expects to collect £1.4 billion in EPR fees over the coming months, guaranteeing £1.1 billion of this sum for English councils in the 2025/26 financial year, regardless of the final collection total. The further £300,000 is expected go to the UK's devolved authorities to allocate to councils. Councils will be able to choose how to spend the funding, such as offering local residents more streamlined collections, building new infrastructures or upgrading facilities. Environment Secretary Steve Reed said all councils must use the funding to deliver improved packaging waste collection services for their communities. The scheme's administrator PackUK has been given powers to reduce future funding allocations if evidence shows a council has funnelled it towards other purposes. More widely, the Government hopes the scheme will help to unlock regional growth, create new green jobs and boost household recycling rates which have seen little improvement over recent years. It pointed to projects such as waste management firm Veolia's facility in Southwark which handles and processes materials collected from homes and sends them to be turned into new products. Environment minister Mary Creagh said: 'This Government is cleaning up Britain and ending the throwaway society. She added that the money 'will revolutionise how we deal with our waste and ensure more of today's rubbish is recycled into tomorrow's packaging'. Local government minister Jim McMahon said: 'Clean and tidy streets are something everyone wants to see, and these commonsense reforms will help councils achieve that. 'Whether it's channelling more money into recycling or reforming the outdated funding system, we are fixing the foundations of local government so that it can focus on what matters most to people across the country.' Jacob Hayler, executive director of the Environmental Services Association, said: 'Our members stand ready to invest billions, alongside local authority partners, in the next generation of recycling services, infrastructure and jobs, which will provide a rapid boost to England's stalled recycling rates. 'The new producer responsibility regime for packaging, alongside other measures to simplify recycling services, will unlock this investment and support our ambition to achieve a circular economy in the United Kingdom over the next decade.' Jim Bligh, the Food and Drink Federation's director of corporate affairs and packaging, said: 'This announcement is welcome news for both industry and consumers, coming just before producers receive their first invoices for EPR. 'It marks a vital step towards delivering the improvements in the UK's recycling system that we all want and need.' Adam Hug, environment spokesperson for the Local Government Association, said: 'It's positive to see the costs of managing packaging waste shift to the industry creating this waste. 'Councils are proud to run some of the best recycling services in the world, with high levels of public satisfaction despite significant financial pressures. 'This success is built on council's local knowledge and strong links with communities, and we hope the new scheme will support that work and help reduce the amount of packaging ending up in household bins.' The EPR scheme comes as part of wider Government efforts to boost the circular economy, which also include the delayed deposit return scheme that provides a financial incentive to customers to return empty drinks containers to collection points. The Circular Economy Taskforce is also working with sectors to create a series of roadmaps to improve the approach to using materials.
Glasgow Times
42 minutes ago
- Glasgow Times
It's great to be here, I love standing on the soil of Scotland, Trump says
Ian Murray told the PA news agency what the US President's first words were after disembarking from Air Force One in Prestwick. The UK Government minister was the first person to greet the president in Scotland as he begins his visit to the country. Speaking after meeting the American leader, Mr Murray told PA: 'The president came off the flight, and I said, 'Mr president, welcome to Scotland – the home country of your dear mother', and he said, 'It's great to be here, I always love standing on the soil of Scotland'. 'I said, 'I hope you're looking forward to a bit of downtime with some golf this weekend', and he said, 'Yes'. And I said, 'Well, we've whipped up a bit of a wind for you to make it a bit more competitive', and he went, 'I'm looking forward to it'.' Mr Murray said Mr Trump was given a warm reception as he got off his presidential plane. Scottish Secretary Ian Murray said Donald Trump received a warm welcome (Ben Whitley/PA) Hundreds gathered on the Mound overlooking Prestwick Airport for the president's arrival. A Trump flag was flown while a few spectators wore 'Make America Great Again' hats, although many of those attending were locals and aviation enthusiasts, including some who had travelled from England. Mr Murray said: 'Spotters hills, as it's called, where all the plane spotters come to Prestwick, was absolutely full. 'You could see that from the tarmac and as Air Force One came in, people were snapping away on their photographs. 'To see all that happening is quite a spectacle in itself. 'It's really good to have that kind of focus on Scotland.' Hundreds gathered at Prestwick Airport as the president landed (Jane Barlow/PA) Mr Trump will meet Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during his trip to discuss the UK-US trade deal as Britain hopes to be spared from the president's tariff regime. The Scottish Secretary said: 'Really, the purpose of this weekend, the purpose of greeting the president off the plane, the purpose of the Prime Minister's relationship with the president is to build that close relationship, to make sure that that old alliance is nurtured, and to do that for the benefit of the national interest, which is about jobs and growth here in the UK, and particularly Scotland.' Mr Trump will meet Scottish First Minister John Swinney during his trip as he opens a new golf course in Aberdeenshire. Before flying to Prestwick, Mr Trump said in Washington that he was 'looking forward' to meeting Mr Swinney, describing him as a 'good man' – the same phrase he used for the Prime Minister after landing in Scotland. US President Donald Trump was taken to Turnberry via motorcade (Robert Perry/PA) Asked about the president's relationship with the UK, Mr Murray said: 'The Prime Minister has taken a very pragmatic approach to the relationship with the president of the United States, because it's in our national interest to do so, whether it be on defence, security, trade, cultural, historic ties. 'It's a historic alliance, and that alliance has to be nurtured and continue through to the future, because it's quite clear that our relationship with United States is good for jobs and growth here in Scotland and across the UK. 'The Prime Minister knows that, and knows that working very closely with the US is in our national interest.' Asked about protests, which are expected across the country, Mr Murray said people had a right to demonstrate, adding: 'Freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom to protest is a key cornerstone of both countries, America and the UK, and the right to be able to protest if they so wish to so.'
