Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France prediction, pick: Can champ keep rolling at UFC 317?
Flyweight champ Pantoja goes after fourth straight title defense in unofficial rematch with Kara-France
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 317 co-main event between flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France.
Alexandre Pantoja UFC 317 preview
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Kai Kara-France UFC 317 preview
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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France point of interest: Striking the second time around
The co-main event in Las Vegas is a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France.
Although this is yet another rematch courtesy of the UFC matchmakers and their fetish of force-feeding us rematches at seemingly any opportunity, Pantoja and Kara-France's first encounter is nearly a decade old as each fighter has evolved since.
As his nickname 'The Cannibal' would suggest, Pantoja made his name as an offensive marauder who isn't afraid to shed blood in order to feed himself.
An inherent pressure fighter, Pantoja is typically at his best when coming forward and looking to corrall opposition toward the cage. Although Pantoja's technique and defense can sometimes leave much to be desired, the Brazilian bruiser can flow through offensive phases like second nature and counters well in combination.
In fact, Pantoja has quietly developed his counter-striking savvy in his latter years, which, in turn, gives him both more breathing room and options to operate from on the feet.
Demonstrating excellent instincts in the clinch, Pantoja has a good feel for body knees and strikes off the break. However, despite owning one of the most proven chins in MMA, Pantoja will need to respect the power that's coming his way.
Enter Kara-France.
Initially starting his martial arts journey in the world of jiu-jitsu, Kara-France has steadily molded himself into a savvy striker.
The New Zealand native always possessed his vaunted speed and power, but we've really seen Kara-France refine his game under the care of Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew.
Now, utilizing much more educated footwork and fakes, it is not uncommon to see Kara-France either feint his opposition's guard out of place when coming forward or walking them into kill shots when going backward. The 32-year-old talent also does a fantastic job of variating his jabs, smartly switching up his speeds and targets in order to set up hard right hands.
Nevertheless, I'll still be curious to see if Kara-France shelves some of his leg kicks given the potential counters and takedowns coming his way.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity is in this fight, no one should be shocked if the sitting champion tries to take this party to the floor.
Despite not officially working on his wrestling until teaming up with Henry Cejudo post-'TUF,' Pantoja has always been a dangerous threat from the bodylock and has since further sharpened his takedown shots since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida.
Parlaying off of his previously mentioned clinch striking, Pantoja is quick to lock his hands around his opposition and shuck them off to a side whenever possible, smartly changing the angles and approaches to his attacks.
Displaying good cage awareness, Pantoja wastes little time when it comes to wedging himself in between the fence and the back of his opposition. And once Pantoja is able to get the slightest bite on a position, the Shooto Brazil vet will jump at the opportunity to shift the fight's dynamic.
In victory or defeat, seldom will you see anyone get to Pantoja's back for prolonged periods or put him in precarious submission threats. In fact, the 18-year pro has a knack for turning negative positions around through his superb legwork and scrambling ability.
Pantoja, who has incredible transitional instincts and chair sits, will have an edge when it comes to finding the back. And if Pantoja ends up on top, the American Top Team rep has some fantastic ground striking that's not talked about enough.
Like a snake striking its prey on the nature channel, Pantoja possesses incredible accuracy and pop to the punches that slightly arc around his opponent's guard.
That said, I'll be curious to see if Pantoja still has the same trouble he experienced when trying to take Kara-France down in their first fight.
Although Kara-France doesn't come from a part of the world that is known for its wrestling, the New Zealander keeps some solid wrestling skills in his back pocket.
Offensively, Kara-France has a quick level-changing double that he can go to if he needs to ground his opponent. The 15-year pro isn't completely impervious from a defensive standpoint, but his scrambling more than makes up the difference for any perceived shortcomings.
The potential problem, however, is that Kara-France has a propensity to tripod and allow for back exposure when looking to stand – something that could prove fatal against a fantastic back-taker like Pantoja.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Brazilian champion, listing Pantoja -265 and Kara-France +200 via FanDuel.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France prediction, pick
Even though I don't want to disrespect Kara-France or his chances (as this is a fistfight), you could make an argument that this betting line would be a bit wider if weren't for MMA gamblers and their typical trend of growing tumescent over the possibility of fading an aging fighter.
Aside from being 3-0 in career rematches opposite to Kara-France's 1-2 standing, Pantoja is one of the most durable competitors in the entire sport – as well as one of my top 10 rear-naked choke artists in UFC history – making him a nightmare matchup for Kara-France on paper.
If Kara-France wins, I'll be one of the first to give him his props, but if this is yet another successful title defense and tally in the champion's already-perfect rematch record, then I hope that the Gen Pop and media alike can finally start giving Pantoja his long overdue love as one of the best pound-for-pound talents and genuine good dudes in this volatile space.
The official pick is for Pantoja to shove the 35-year-old title defense stat up the asses of MMA bettors en route to locking up a submission win by Round 3.
Prediction: Pantoja inside the distance
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Pantoja and Kara-France are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
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