Top Wall Street bank pitches options play to ride potential Indian rupee rally to 83
Goldman Sachs' sales and trading desk is recommending an options play on the Indian rupee that will pay off if the South Asian currency rallies to 83 per U.S. dollar over the next nine months.
The call - effectively a bet on a 3% appreciation in the rupee from its current level of 85.50 - is underpinned by India's improving macroeconomic fundamentals, a revival in foreign inflows, lower oil prices, and the potential for a U.S.-India
trade
deal.
The rupee has lagged behind its Asian peers this year, showing little response to the dollar index's more than 9% decline.
Goldman Sachs is recommending buying a 9-month USD/INR binary
put option
with a strike price of 83. A binary put
option
is a type of digital option that pays a fixed amount if the currency pair settles below the strike level at the expiry of the contract.
"We chose 9-month tenor for the trade as INR typically tends to appreciate during India's financial year end", which concludes on March 31, according to a sales note from Goldman Sachs.
Live Events
In support of their constructive outlook on the rupee, Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that India's GDP growth accelerated to 7.4% year-on-year in the March quarter from 6.4% in the previous three months.
Their monthly activity tracker indicates that consumption remained robust in April.
The investment bank's note pointed to a return of foreign
equity
inflows, with over $4 billion flowing into Indian equities over the past two months. Goldman expects this trend to continue and potentially accelerate, driven by improving corporate earnings.
The possibility of a U.S.-India trade deal and lower oil prices could be other catalysts for the rupee. Goldman said that a rollback of the 10%
reciprocal tariff
would be seen as a positive development for Indian risk assets and the rupee.
While the U.S. had initially proposed a 26% levy on Indian shipmemts, the country-specific tariffs have been paused until July 8.
On oil, Goldman's commodities research team expects Brent crude to average $60 for the remainder of 2025 and fall to $56 in 2026. Lower energy prices are a net positive for oil-importing countries like India and could support the rupee.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hindustan Times
36 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Delhi govt to start evening buses for tourists to PM Museum, War Memorial
Tourism minister Kapil Mishra on Friday said the Delhi government is going to start AC electric bus services to ferry tourists from Pradhan Mantri Sanghrahalya to the National War Memorial on an evening tour. He said more such bus services are being planned for other tourist places in the Capital. 'We have planned to start evening tours by AC electric buses from the Prime Minister Museum to the National War Memorial. We will hire new nine-metre electric buses from the Delhi Transport Corporation for the purpose. The service is going to start soon,' Mishra told HT. The Pradhan Mantri Sangrahalaya at Teen Murti Bhavan is a tribute to all Prime Ministers of India. The museum was inaugurated in 2022 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The National War Memorial at India Gate is a memorial to the valour and sacrifice of Indian soldiers who laid down their lives in service to the nation. It was inaugurated in 2019 by Modi. Mishra said the details of other tourist places which will be covered under this service are being worked out and will be finalised soon. The minister said the buses will have a coloured design to make them stand out. An official in the minister's office said that according to the fare plans discussed so far, the bus ride will cost ₹500 for adults and ₹300 for children aged between six and 12. There will be a tourist guide on-board who will inform visitors about the significance of these places. Fares are likely to be finalised soon, officials said. While presenting the 2025-26 budget, chief minister Rekha Gupta had announced that her government would develop a new tourist circuit to cover the National War Memorial, Kartavya Path and the Pradhan Mantri Sangrahalaya.
Economic Times
41 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Air India crash, emergency landing and Iran-Israel tensions spark sky scare among flyers
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Popular in Services 1. Industry seeks government sops to revive tourism in Kashmir New Delhi: The fatal Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash in Ahmedabad, a bomb scare causing emergency landing of a Phuket-Delhi flight, and several flight diversions due to Iranian airspace closure after Israel unprecedented wave of disruptions in two days has spooked Indian air travellers, with many seeking to reschedule their trips in the near term, travel companies business and leisure travellers have taken to social media for queries and rescheduling requests. On Friday, Air India diverted or recalled at least 16 flights on transatlantic and European routes as Iran closed its airspace after Israel launched an attack targeting its nuclear and military flights included the AI130 London Heathrow-Mumbai flight that was being diverted to Vienna and the AI102 New York-Delhi flight that was being diverted to Sharjah. In a statement, Air India also stated the AI103 Delhi-Washington flight was returning to Delhi, the AI188 Vancouver-Delhi flight was diverting to Jeddah, and the AI132 London Heathrow-Bengaluru flight was being diverted to Tata Group airline said alternative arrangements are being made to fly passengers to their destinations, noting that it is providing accommodation where needed to minimise disruption. This comes just a day after the crash of an Air India flight in Ahmedabad that killed at least 265 people. Many travellers are posting queries and concerns on social media.'I have a flight to London tomorrow AI129 from Mumbai to London. Can you please let me know if the flight will go ahead or not? Please let me know,' one Karan Awasthi posted on X tagging Air India. In a subsequent post a few hours later, he said: 'What the hell! Can't you reply to genuine concerns?'Another user, Jenny claimed that flight AI130, which was diverted to Vienna, was heading to Milan instead. 'My husband is onboard. No food provided. No clear updates. What's going on?' she Gosain, president of Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO), said the uncertainty around airspace closures, flight delays and rerouting will likely remain prevalent for the foreseeable future due to the Israel-Iran conflict, making planning and executing trips more 'complex'. 'We also heard about a flight from Phuket to Delhi being diverted due to a bomb threat. Incidents like these, combined with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, create a ripple effect across the global travel ecosystem,' Gosain said.'If instability around geopolitical tensions persists, the long-term effects on consumer confidence and global mobility could be significant,' he agencies said they are busy fielding queries and rescheduling requests from people scheduled to travel in the coming few days, with many also raising concerns about the safety of Boeing aircraft following media reports.'Customers are asking for model numbers and aircraft details of flights following Thursday's crash. Even we don't have the details at times and have to research on these,' said Kapil Jain, cofounder and CEO of Fly Divine Travels.
Time of India
44 minutes ago
- Time of India
Air India crash, emergency landing and Iran-Israel tensions spark sky scare among flyers
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: The fatal Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash in Ahmedabad, a bomb scare causing emergency landing of a Phuket-Delhi flight, and several flight diversions due to Iranian airspace closure after Israel unprecedented wave of disruptions in two days has spooked Indian air travellers, with many seeking to reschedule their trips in the near term, travel companies business and leisure travellers have taken to social media for queries and rescheduling requests. On Friday, Air India diverted or recalled at least 16 flights on transatlantic and European routes as Iran closed its airspace after Israel launched an attack targeting its nuclear and military flights included the AI130 London Heathrow-Mumbai flight that was being diverted to Vienna and the AI102 New York-Delhi flight that was being diverted to Sharjah. In a statement, Air India also stated the AI103 Delhi-Washington flight was returning to Delhi, the AI188 Vancouver-Delhi flight was diverting to Jeddah, and the AI132 London Heathrow-Bengaluru flight was being diverted to Tata Group airline said alternative arrangements are being made to fly passengers to their destinations, noting that it is providing accommodation where needed to minimise disruption. This comes just a day after the crash of an Air India flight in Ahmedabad that killed at least 265 people. Many travellers are posting queries and concerns on social media.'I have a flight to London tomorrow AI129 from Mumbai to London. Can you please let me know if the flight will go ahead or not? Please let me know,' one Karan Awasthi posted on X tagging Air India. In a subsequent post a few hours later, he said: 'What the hell! Can't you reply to genuine concerns?'Another user, Jenny claimed that flight AI130, which was diverted to Vienna, was heading to Milan instead. 'My husband is onboard. No food provided. No clear updates. What's going on?' she Gosain, president of Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO), said the uncertainty around airspace closures, flight delays and rerouting will likely remain prevalent for the foreseeable future due to the Israel-Iran conflict, making planning and executing trips more 'complex'. 'We also heard about a flight from Phuket to Delhi being diverted due to a bomb threat. Incidents like these, combined with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, create a ripple effect across the global travel ecosystem,' Gosain said.'If instability around geopolitical tensions persists, the long-term effects on consumer confidence and global mobility could be significant,' he agencies said they are busy fielding queries and rescheduling requests from people scheduled to travel in the coming few days, with many also raising concerns about the safety of Boeing aircraft following media reports.'Customers are asking for model numbers and aircraft details of flights following Thursday's crash. Even we don't have the details at times and have to research on these,' said Kapil Jain, cofounder and CEO of Fly Divine Travels.
