5 takeaways from Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web against Russia
In sheer size, scale and complexity, Ukraine has carried out one of the world's largest special forces strikes— hitting two air bases in Olenya, Murmansk and Irkutsk, Siberia— over 6000 km apart and in three time zones. It ticks all the boxes of Admiral William McRaven's theory of Special Operations — a simple plan, carefully concealed, repeatedly and realistically rehearsed, and executed with speed, surprise and purpose. It weaponised civilian logistics, remotely carrying out the attacks without any of its personnel being captured.advertisementIsrael carried out two of the world's most complex special missions — the hostage rescue at Entebbe airport, Uganda in July 1976, where over 100 Israeli soldiers flew over 3000 km across hostile territory to rescue 106 Israeli passengers, killing the terrorists and destroying one-fourth of the Ugandan Air Force on the ground. In 2023, Mossad booby-trapped pagers in 2023 to kill and wound over 1000 Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon.India's largest special forces operation. Operation Jackpot, planned by the Indian Navy and carried out by Mukti Bahini naval commandos on the night of August 15, 1971, simultaneously attacked four Pakistani ports across (then) East Pakistan, sinking and damaging 22 merchant ships. The attacks were carried out at four ports — Chittagong, Chalna-Mongla, Narayanganj and Chandpur — in a 500 square km box.2. DENIABILITYThe Russia-Ukraine war, it can be argued, is a proxy war between Moscow and NATO. Ukrainian soldiers fight on the ground using Western-supplied weapons and communications gear. These have been sore points for Russia, which has threatened to attack NATO bases and ammunition dumps in Europe.In Spider's Web however, Ukraine has emphasised that the attacks were carried out on its own without NATO / Western support. President Volodomyr Zelenesky emphasised in a post on X that the 'result was achieved solely by Ukraine'. This was done to minimise potential fallout on the West. The attack used Ukrainian drones and was quickly owned up by the Ukrainian government. No Western-supplied weapons like the long-range Taurus missiles were used. Ukraine released images to show they used commercially available high-resolution satellite imagery to target the bombers parked in the open.3. WILL RUSSIA USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?advertisementRussia has threatened to use nuclear weapons at least once during the four-year conflict. The June 1 attack is problematic because it struck Russia's strategic bomber fleet. This means Russia now has fewer aircraft to launch nuclear weapons with in case of a full-scale war. Russian officials have threatened retaliation for the June 1 Ukrainian attacks. Russia launched a wave of over 400 drones on Ukraine on June 1, soon after the Ukrainian attacks. It could do what it has done in the past-- fire the Oreshnik, hypersonic but conventionally armed missile, which cannot be intercepted.4. THE AGE OF DRONE WARFARE HAS ARRIVEDEven before 2022, there were indications of this in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and in the Houthis' strike on the Saudi Arabian oil refineries suggested drones were an adjunct of all conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war ushered in a new age of drone warfare where drones have replaced every single platform from manned fighter aircraft to small arms. Both Russia and Ukraine are using tens of thousands of First Person View (FPV) drones, and their descendants, the wire-guided FPV drones (which cannot be jammed), to create dense, impenetrable drone walls.advertisementThis has led to a World War 1 kind of scenario where the advent of artillery and the machine gun made open movement on the battlefield incredibly dangerous, leading to trench warfare where both sides dug into the earth for protection, creating elaborate trench systems.5. LESSONS FOR INDIAIndia extensively used drones to target Pakistan during the four-day Operation Sindoor air strikes, using them as decoys and to attack Pakistani military targets. But the bigger lessons are for Pearl Harbour-style attacks on Indian targets. In 2021, Pakistani non-state actors struck at an Indian air base in Jammu.The attack saw two quadcopter sized drones dropping two improvised explosive devices which exploded without killing anyone. It was a warning shot because the attackers missed several helicopters parked in the open. The composition of the IED- a military-grade shaped charge - suggested state involvement in the attack. Pakistan could use similar tactics to carry out mass, simultaneous strikes on Indian airbases and other installations. Aircraft and helicopters are most vulnerable when they are parked on the ground, and in the open. The easy availability of commercial satellite imagery means the location of all aircraft and warships and submarines is easily known.advertisementThere is an urgent need for all military aircraft to be covered in blast-proof structures. All air bases must be secured with multiple indigenous counter-UAS systems.
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In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person Russia's recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country's overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. 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