Eskom assures stability amid rising demand and winter challenges
Eskom in a statement on Friday assured the country that the system remains stable despite being constrained on the back of rising demand as a result of inclement weather conditions
Eskom in a statement on Friday assured the country that the system remains stable despite being constrained on the back of rising demand as a result of inclement weather conditions. The State-owned power utility said it would add 2 550 MW to the grid on Monday, 9 June, and thus rotational load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000 MW. An energy expert believes that managing Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) will be key to managing high demand during the winter months.
Professor Vally Padayachee, energy expert and former Eskom generation executive manager, said that Eskom's assertion that the power system remains stable but constrained reflects the complex dynamics at play within our energy landscape. 'While it is commendable that we are witnessing a certain degree of stability, this is juxtaposed against the persistent challenges linked to generation capacity and maintenance backlogs.'
Padayachee added that the planned addition of 2,550 MW to the grid is promising and exemplifies Eskom's proactive approach to mitigating demand pressures, particularly ahead of the anticipated cold spell. 'However, it is essential to recognize that this augmentation of capacity is necessary to support an increasingly demanding grid, especially during peak usage times. The fact that Eskom has been able to reduce the Planned Capability Loss Factor (PCLF) to approximately 4,035 MW, down from 4,883 MW, suggests ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and maintenance practices.'
Padayachee said that nonetheless, sustained vigilance is critical, given that we still face high unplanned capacity loss. 'The current Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) of 28.93% is concerning. This metric underscores the need for further attention and resources to address the underlying issues causing these unplanned outages. Notably, the delay in returning Medupi Unit 4 to service exhibits how long-term maintenance projects can significantly impact reliability. As the unit is anticipated to return within June 2025, its reintegration will be pivotal for improving overall generation capacity.'
Padayachee added that the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) levels, fluctuating around 60% to 64%, indicate a gradual recovery; however, they remain below optimal performance levels. 'A year-to-date average EAF of 57.85%, which is down from 60.67% in the same period last year, further illustrates the detrimental effects of increased planned maintenance—now at 12.76% of total generation capacity.'
Padayachee said that looking forward, while the winter outlook does not currently indicate an imminent need for load shedding if unplanned outages remain controlled, we must adopt a proactive stance. 'However, if the UCLF increases to beyond 15,000 MW, we could see a return to load shedding, hopefully at lower levels. It is vital that Eskom and the broader energy ecosystem focus on sustainable practices, enhancing generation reliability, and strategic maintenance scheduling. Reducing illegal connections and energy theft is equally crucial, as these factors can lead to overloads and wider outages, further straining our grid.'
Padayachee added that as we navigate these winter months, he encourages all stakeholders—government, industry players, and consumers alike—to adopt a collaborative approach in managing energy consumption and ensuring efficient utilization of resources. 'Public education campaigns around the responsible use of electricity and the importance of adhering to legal electricity procurement will help alleviate some of the pressures on the grid. While Eskom's immediate measures are steps in the right direction, the outlook necessitates continual improvement in operational efficiency, robust maintenance strategies, and active public engagement to foster a more resilient power sector.'
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