How many people in Ireland believe in conspiracy theories?

RTÉ News​

2 days ago

Analysis: While the majority do not believe six prominent conspiracy theories, the level of support for some of these might raise a few eyebrows
By Robert Brennan and Rabhya Mehrotra, DCU
Conspiracy beliefs are explanations for events or situations that involve secret plots by powerful and malevolent groups. These beliefs often arise when people are trying to make sense of complex, uncertain, or threatening situations. While some conspiracy theories turn out to be based on genuine misconduct or secrecy, most are built on misinformation, misunderstanding or deliberate distortion of reality.
Research suggests that conspiracy thinking can be more common when people feel powerless, threatened or distrustful of institutions. Social media platforms can also amplify conspiracy narratives by enabling rapid sharing of misinformation and connecting like-minded believers
It has been well documented that conspiracy theories have gained traction in recent years, particularly among the loud minority of the far-right. This was one of the issues to feature in the recently published National Election and Democracy Study. The survey asked the public the extent to which they believed six prominent conspiracy theories to be true, including if a small, secret group of people is responsible for making all major decisions in world politics.
From RTÉ Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, why are so many conspiracy theories reaching mainstream media?
Two of the conspiracy theories concerned the notion that the public is unknowingly being exposed to diseases or being experimented on, beliefs that boomed during the Covid-19 pandemic:
Viruses and/or diseases have been deliberately disseminated to infect certain populations.
Experiments involving new drugs or technologies are routinely carried out on the public without their knowledge or consent.
Another two conspiracy theories concerned immigration, specifically that the establishment building a base of loyal migrant voters and the 'Great replacement' theory (a myth with origins in Nazi propaganda that has been directly linked to devastating acts of terrorism):
Elected officials want more immigration to bring in obedient voters who will vote for them.
The establishment is replacing white Irish people with non-white immigrants.
The final two were more the classic kinds of conspiracy theories, that the public are being tricked and controlled by the elite or an ominous, unseen group:
Groups of scientists manipulate, fabricate, or suppress evidence in order to deceive the public.
A small, secret group of people is responsible for making all major decisions in world politics.
Overall, the responses show that the majority of people do not believe in these conspiracy theories, with well over half of the population dismissing them as unlikely, or definitely not true.
But the amount of support these theories have, however, might raise a few eyebrows. The 'classics' seem to have the most support, with roughly a third of people leaning towards believing that the public are being deceived by scientists or that a secret group of people control the world behind the scenes. These percentages shoot up to over half of the population if you include those who are unsure whether these beliefs are true or not.
Belief for conspiracies concerning the public being intentionally exposed to diseases or experimented on had less support. Roughly a quarter of people thought these to be true to some extent. Again, however, a considerable amount of people were unsure, bringing the percentage of the population who give these beliefs at least some degree of truth to just below half.
From RTÉ Radio 1's Brendan O'Connor Show, Ciarán O'Connor from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue on 'conspirituality', where wellness culture and conspiracies collide
The conspiracy theories the Irish population believe to be the least likely to be true are those centred around immigration and ethnicity. Just under a quarter of people believe the idea that the establishment is importing loyal voters or the great replacement theory. A further 20% or people or so have some doubts.
What sources lead to people believing in conspiracy theories?
We have previously looked at what the 2024 General Election survey tells us about media use, media trust and trust in institutions among the Irish public. Here, we report on correlations in the data that show how each of these relate to one's level of belief in conspiracy theories.
A clear link emerged between how much people used different sources of information and belief in conspiracy theories. The more people used journalistic media (RTÉ and newspapers) in forming an opinion before voting, the less likely they were to believe in conspiracy theories. The reverse was found for non-journalistic media, whereby the more people used social media and messaging apps, the more likely they were to believe in conspiracies.
Interestingly, the same trends were found when looking at the relationship between media trust and conspiracy beliefs.
We found that greater trust in non-journalistic media (such as messaging apps and social Media) correlates with higher belief in conspiracy theories overall. Conversely, higher trust and use of journalistic media (RTÉ, newspapers), along with higher education levels and use of party information for voting decisions, correlate with lower belief in conspiracies. Age, gender, and trust in party information show no real impact.
The bottom line seems clear. There are lower levels of conspiracy belief amongst those who trust traditional media, even if they do not use it. It would seem then that supporting the use and trust of journalistic media is very much in the interest of everyone who values a good information ecosystem.
It's also important not to overstate the significance of the data trends we identified in the post-election survey, as they only give a broad indication of what the people of Ireland are willing to endorse. Nevertheless, the election surveys are, and will continue to be an important barometer of the Irish public's attitudes towards such beliefs over time.
Dr Robert A. Brennan is a postdoctoral researcher with the Institute for Future Media, Democracy and Society (FuJo) at DCU. Rabhya Mehrotra is a Mitchell Scholar who is doing a Masters in Political Communication at DCU. She is a part of the COMDEL team at the (FuJo).