UFC 316 odds, predictions: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley headlines a card with two belts on the line

New York Times

15 hours ago

The UFC is back with two title fights and a ton of high-level matchups. Both the men's and women's bantamweight belts will be decided on Saturday night at UFC 316.
I'll be breaking down both title fights and an additional matchup from the card below, but if you'd like to chat about any extra matchups, feel free to leave a comment!
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Sean O'Malley will be chasing the return of his championship status against Merab Dvalishvili this weekend in a rematch that resulted in the last hand-changing of the bantamweight belt.
I thought Dvalishvili handily won the first time around, and I was betting on that happening, though the scorecards were ultimately competitive.
O'Malley was and is the better boxer. I've always loved his ability to strike at a high rate while moving forward and backward, which is a showcase of O'Malley's outstanding boxing cardio. We've seen him top out at 230 significant strikes on multiple occasions.
He's also showcased a lot more power than Dvalishvili and has legitimate knockout upside against any opponent in the division. That includes Dvalishvili, who's been tagged on more than one occasion and wobbled badly against Marlon Moraes back in 2021.
However, Dvalishvili is a generational athlete with strong wrestling, and there's not much O'Malley can do about it. Particularly, O'Malley isn't a good enough wrestler to stop Dvalishvili taking him down and holding onto him.
In the first fight, Dvalishvili landed six takedowns on 15 attempts and earned 10 minutes of control. Honestly, I think he carries upside for more.
O'Malley's first-level takedown defense is not nearly good enough, and Dvalishvili is far more physical in the clinch, where he can hang on to O'Malley and beat him up.
At distance, Dvalishvili was not fighting in boxing range. O'Malley couldn't land head-strikes and was afraid to kick in fear of getting taken down. He did hurt Dvalishvili to the body in the fifth round, and possibly could have earned a TKO stoppage had the next couple of minutes gone perfectly.
My best guess is that O'Malley will try to kick and attack the body more frequently this time. Despite leaving social media and training wrestling, I just don't think he can catch up to Dvalishvili's level. He may limit the wrestling attack, but I don't think he can stop it completely. Ultimately, he needs to find a way to do more damage, and I think he'll view that as chasing the body strikes earlier in the fight.
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It's a difficult ask for O'Malley, and I think Dvalishvili is the deserved favorite at -275. I don't see the point in betting that outright, though I wouldn't be shocked if it still looked like value in hindsight. I'd much rather play his decision prop, which you can find at -170. I think that's clearly the most realistic path to victory for Dvalishvili. I can understand still being cautious with the price, but I don't mind it.
O'Malley has a shot at a decision win based on the outcome of the first fight. He'll need to do more damage, and there's some KO equity mixed in there as well. I'd never fully count him out, but it's a slim likelihood unless he can prove much more efficient as a defensive wrestler and scrambler, or hits the one-shot kill.
The women's bantamweight championship is one of the more intriguing matchups in quite some time, largely because Kayla Harrison is involved and is generally expected to come home with the title.
Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, winning in 2012 and 2016. She's 18-1 as a pro in MMA and won multiple world championships in the Professional Fighters League before moving over to the UFC in 2024.
The craziest part is that she typically fights at 155 pounds, but is having to drop multiple weight classes to 135 pounds in order to compete. She's looked very good doing so in both of her UFC appearances. Needless to say, she's a physical beast for this division, which pairs very well with her elite judo skills.
On the other side, Julianna Peña clawed her way back to a second title after losing it to Amanda Nunes in 2022. She scraped together a split decision against Raquel Pennington in October.
Peña is a pest in a positive way. She is willing to engage and throw volume on the feet. She is willing to clinch and grapple. She's fairly skillful as a submission grappler, and even on the bottom, Peña can threaten and make the top fighter work.
She's just not particularly processed, and I think her defense is very poor. She cannot defend takedowns, and her defensive rate is 23 percent, which will be a major problem in this particular matchup.
That's the biggest hurdle I can't overcome in matchup analysis. Harrison is going to be levels ahead of Peña physically, and Peña is particularly bad at Harrison's primary strength, which is the art of landing takedowns.
The question becomes whether Peña can win despite getting taken down with ease. The answer is it's not likely, but possible. One avenue could be with cardio. Harrison cutting weight could make her tired over 25 minutes, which we have seen before in PFL. Perhaps Peña could mount a late comeback with a cardio edge, which is how she won her first title against Nunes. (It was early in the fight, but Nunes was dead tired.)
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Otherwise, Peña will have limited options. She'll attack with submissions from her back. On the feet, Peña is probably the better pure striker, and Harrison isn't particularly effective there. Peña could win rounds or swarm on Harrison if she's tired.
I just don't think Harrison is likely to get extremely tired here because the takedowns should come easily, and I highly doubt Peña can get up from her back with ease. Harrison lands nasty ground-and-pound, and she should cleanly win early rounds.
I do have some trepidation on late-round dynamics, but I think the most likely outcome is Harrison winning them with grappling, or potentially even finishing Peña before it gets that far.
On BetMGM, Harrison is a heavy -750 favorite, which doesn't feel unreasonable given the matchup dynamics. I don't think it's a fight I'm going to invest in. Perhaps you could take a shot on Harrison inside the distance (-175) or by TKO (+300).
There are only a few competitively lined fights on the card, but Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix is one of the matchups that interests me most. Primarily, it's because we're getting the UFC debut of Mix, who is the former Bellator bantamweight champion.
Mix is 20-1 professionally, with 13 wins by submission and two more by knockout. He's beaten legit competition like Magomed Magomedov, Sergio Pettis, Kyoji Horiguchi and Raufeon Stots. His only loss came in a five-round decision to Juan Archuleta in 2020.
Mix is a high-level wrestler, and that wrestling is the backbone of his game, along with his submission grappling. He's one of the best back-takers in the sport, and should clearly have a path to beating the mid-levels of the division with takedowns and back control.
Plus, more than 50 percent of his professional wins are by submission, which largely include rear-naked chokes and guillotines, and I consider him to be a fairly dangerous and opportunistic grappler.
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I do question whether Mix is a bit too reliant on that path, though, which won't be the easiest to achieve against the best of the best in the UFC. He doesn't necessarily shoot takedowns at the highest volume, and while he's left striking at distance, Mix seems semi-vulnerable there to me as well.
I don't think we can rely on Mix to comfortably win striking rounds, and I'd probably consider him at a disadvantage against most competition. His pure wrestling will get him far, and he's well-sized, which should provide an edge, but I do think he'll need more to become champion.
I also worry a bit that he gets labored down the stretch. I feel he is more comfortable in the early rounds.
It's a strong base of skills, but I'm underwhelmed from a macro sense.
Meanwhile, I am a fan of Bautista and have supported him for a while. I really enjoy Bautista's pacing, and he's been in more than one action fight throughout his UFC career. He currently lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.91 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.
Bautista is also well-rounded and can wrestle, landing 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending at 66 percent.
I don't think he has fought many quality wrestlers who can compare to Mix, but his matchup against Da'Mon Blackshear was a solid performance. Blackshear took Bautista down four times in that fight, but was only able to control him for three minutes. Bautista edged out a decision with effective striking.
Bautista's strongest round was also his third round. Dating back to his fight against Jin Soo Son, Bautista was able to land 60 significant strikes in that third round, which has always given me confidence in him over the distance.
I don't think he's a perfect fighter, though. His defensive wrestling isn't elite. Mix will quite likely take him down early on in the fight. My bigger question is whether he can easily control Bautista because Bautista is an urgent scrambler.
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It seems fair to assume Mix can win a round or two with takedowns and back-takes. Perhaps he can actually submit Bautista with a RNC. Bautista is not the easiest to control, though, and I think it's somewhat likely he can scramble free as well.
At distance, I give Bautista a clear advantage with his striking volume and effectiveness. Mix stands kind of upright, and I don't always love his reactions. Bautista won't pour on the offense as Mix will limit engagements, but Bautista should be winning at distance, and I'd also favor him the longer the fight lasts.
Ultimately, it's a great test for Mix, and it could be a fun fight. I think the most likely outcome is a competitive affair where both sides have success.
That doesn't make me excited to jump on Mix as a favorite. He's currently -190 on BetMGM. It's possible he simply wraps up a takedown or two and finds a submission. Perhaps a longer shot on Mix by submission is a viable prop, which sits at +200.
I do think Bautista can win a decision, and I don't mind him at +155. I also acknowledge that his early success may be limited, so it may also be better to jump in as a live opportunity. I do think a decision win for Bautista is the most likely outcome. Taking that at +250 is within range.
I'm looking forward to seeing new blood in the bantamweight division.
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(Photo of Merab Dvalishvili: Candice Ward / Getty Images)