Donal Lenihan: This time, Schmidt's priority is keeping Wallabies in the fight

Irish Examiner

7 days ago

Journey into the unknown
The opening test of a British and Irish Lions series has become a bit of a journey into the unknown - and not just for the tourists.
Over the course of the last few weeks Joe Schmidt, so familiar with many of the Irish players and coaching staff traveling with the Lions, has sat back, dissected every molecule of information available, and analysed every Lions game in forensic detail.
The last time he did so against such a green-tinted opponent in a massive test was the World Cup quarter final in 2023 when, as part of Ian Foster's All Black coaching ticket, he devised an attack play off a line out geared towards exposing a potential weakness that only Joe could spot.
The result was a brilliant try for Will Jordon that ultimately cost Ireland a first ever World Cup semi final appearance. When presented for press duty early in the week giant second row Will Skelton volunteered: "Joe's got a plan for us, and hopefully we can really execute it this weekend."
Despite playing six games on tour, Andy Farrell and his coaching team are not only in the dark as to what to expect from this Wallaby team but also uncertain, given the weakness of the opposition faced since arriving in Perth, just how cohesive and battle hardened his Lions side is heading into today's first test.
While his opening test selection has followed largely predicted lines, an element of doubt surrounds a few key areas, most notably his back row combination. Given the manner in which all the Australian Super Rugby teams were able to compete at the breakdown and generate turnovers that's probably Farrell's principle area of concern.
Outside that, there's also a fear of the unknown. While Skelton's comments regarding the tactical gems Schmidt may have tucked up his sleeve, Farrell also admitted that the Lions were also holding back on aspects of their game plan in those provincial games.
When asked how much he was hiding during those games, he said 'quite a bit actually'. No surprise there. That said, the odds were stacked against Schmidt's men, even before untimely injuries to key men in Skelton, Rob Valetini, regular hooker Dave Porecki and Noah Lolesio.
Australian rugby is not in a great place right now, especially from a financial perspective. As a result over 50 former or potential Wallabies currently ply their trade in Europe, at least six of whom would have been good enough to feature in their match day squad.
Given the depth and experience of players available to Farrell, that's bound to have a big impact over the next few weeks and leaves a cloud hanging over how competitive the Wallabies will be, especially on the back of those untimely injuries.
Set piece showdown
What Andy Farrell is pretty certain of is the attacking threat posed by a quality Australian midfield, with $5m dollar man Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii signed from Rugby League last year on a three-year contract targeted specifically for this series and the 2027 World Cup. He starts alongside the explosive Len Ikitau, and a lightning counter attacking back three of Tom Wright, Max Jorgensen and Harry Potter.
Schmidt knows better than most, however, that his attacking threat will be diluted significantly if Australia fail to deal with the significant set piece threat the Lions carry, hence his desire to get Skelton back on board from La Rochelle for this series.
Skelton carries massive presence and not just in physical terms. He knows so many of the Leinster Lions forwards, six of whom have made the cut in the Lions squad for Saturday, from his time spent tormenting them with Saracens and La Rochelle in his Champions Cup final successes in 2019, 2022 and 2023.
Not only would he not harbour any sense of inferiority facing the Lions set piece, he would've been tasked with inspiring his fellow front five forwards in carrying the fight to the Lions.
Word has it that both he and Valetini will be available for the second test which means the Wallabies must find a way to stay in the fight first time out and hope that duo will add to their cause next weekend.
From the outset of this tour, even in the opening defeat to Argentina, the Lions have set out to dominate the scrum. They've taken a page out of the Springbok playbook by using the scrum to generate penalties from which they kick to the corners and launch an effective line out maul.
Recognising this potential vulnerability, Schmidt head-hunted a familiar face to address this when luring the veteran New Zealand scrum coach Mike Cron from World Rugby to his coaching ticket until the end of the Lions series.
It comes as no surprise that Schmidt has chosen to start his more experienced props in James Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa in an attempt to paint a positive scrum picture with referee Ben O'Keeffe while holding back a pair of superior ball playing props in Angus Bell and Tom Robinson.
Many expected the gargantuan Taniela Tupou, rated so highly by Tadhg Furlong, to make the cut but with doubts over his fitness Schmidt has released him to play for the First Nations/Pasifica side next Tuesday with the option of using him off the bench later in the series.
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The question remains whether Cron has sufficient quality to match the scrummaging power the Lions will introduce off their bench. If they manage to get the upper hand at scrum time, their line out will then be utilised to inflict further damage once they get a foothold in the Wallaby twenty two.
That's why Farrell has selected an additional line out option in Tadhg Beirne in the back row, not to mention the jackal threat the Munster captain carries despite his admission that he feels a lot more comfortable in the second row these days.
The absence of Skelton and Valetini should facilitate Farrell's plan despite the fact the athletic Wallaby second row pairing of Nick Frost and Jeremy Williams will attack every Lions throw with zeal in what will be an intriguing contest that will have a major influence on the outcome of this test.
Wallabies will chase breakdown and aerial superiority
Given this test match is the first time Joe Schmidt is presented with the opportunity to expose potential weaknesses and hitherto unpunished Lions vulnerabilities, I'm fascinated to see where and how he targets the Lions.
The most obvious surrounds the breakdown which, for whatever reason, the Lions have been slow to resource adequately all tour, surely an area they have been addressing in camp all week. If not, Australia have a poaching menace in Fraser McReight in their armoury, who created havoc in this key sector against England and Ireland last November.
The Lions attack has been far too lateral to date and with the barnstorming Bundee Aki held in reserve that could hold them back early on. The other potential area of weakness that Schmidt will target is the tourists ability to cope with the aerial bombardment sure to come their way.
In addition to his genius with ball in hand, Suaalii is outstanding when it comes to chasing and competing for those high hanging bombs in the air. Hugo Keenan, James Lowe and Tommy Freeman will be tested early and often.
Winning the opening test is key as it keeps you in the fight to the final whistle on the last day of action. That's the clear goal for the Lions. Given the list of injuries the Wallabies have had to cope with, Schmidt may have to settle for a competitive performance in the hope that the cavalry return next week in time to keep the series alive.
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