S&P Futures Tick Lower on Renewed Tariff Concerns, U.S. PCE Inflation Data in Focus

Globe and Mail

5 days ago

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.17% this morning as investors grappled with fresh uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and looked ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve's first-line inflation gauge.
A U.S. federal appeals court on Thursday allowed President Trump's tariffs to remain in place while the administration's appeal proceeds. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the Trump administration is weighing a temporary measure to impose tariffs on large parts of the global economy using an existing law that permits duties of up to 15% for a duration of 150 days.
In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's major indexes ended in the green. Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +3% after the world's most valuable chipmaker posted better-than-expected Q1 results and gave a solid Q2 revenue forecast. Also, Nordson (NDSN) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the industrial technology manufacturer reported upbeat FQ2 results and issued above-consensus FQ3 guidance. In addition, e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) soared over +23% after the cosmetics company reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and announced the acquisition of Hailey Bieber's Rhode beauty brand for $1 billion. On the bearish side, HP Inc. (HPQ) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the personal computer company posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 adjusted EPS and cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' second estimate showed on Thursday that the economy contracted at a 0.2% annualized pace in the first quarter, compared with an initially reported 0.3% decline. Also, U.S. April pending home sales fell -6.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.9% m/m and the largest decline in more than 2-1/2 years. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +14K to 240K, compared with the 229K expected.
'Historic and more current data brought no surprises. Even if that had been the case, the focus would have remained firmly on the here and now — tariffs, courts, China, Nvidia, yields, and equity markets,' said Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with President Trump at the White House on Thursday. Trump pushed the Fed chief to cut interest rates during their first in-person meeting since the president's inauguration, the White House said. The Fed said policy 'depends entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.'
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that a resolution in trade policy could steer the U.S. economy back to its pre-tariff path, paving the way for officials to cut interest rates. 'If you have stable full employment and inflation going to target, rates can come down to where they would eventually settle,' Goolsbee said. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that monetary policy is currently in a 'good place' to keep driving inflation lower.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.9% chance of no rate change and a 2.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at June's monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y in April, compared to the previous figures of unchanged m/m and +2.6% y/y.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate April Personal Spending to be +0.2% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.3% m/m, compared to the March figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.5% m/m, respectively.
The University of Michigan's U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported today. Economists expect the final May figure to be revised higher to 51.1 from the preliminary reading of 50.8.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will come in today. Economists forecast the preliminary April figure at +0.4% m/m, the same as in March.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to come in at 45.1 in May, compared to the previous value of 44.6.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee throughout the day.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.434%, up +0.23%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.41% this morning as investors digest positive inflation data and keep a close watch on the outlook for global trade. Real estate and chemical stocks led the gains on Friday, while mining and telecom stocks underperformed. Still, gains were limited amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. A U.S. federal appeals court granted President Donald Trump a temporary reprieve from a ruling that threatened to overturn the bulk of his sweeping tariffs. The benchmark index is on track for a healthy monthly and weekly gain. Preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute released on Friday showed that Spain's inflation eased more than expected in May, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will deliver an eighth rate cut at its meeting next week. Separately, data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Germany's monthly retail sales unexpectedly fell in April. In addition, ECB data showed that bank lending in the Eurozone continued to recover in April. Investors now await preliminary inflation data from Germany due later in the session. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said on Friday that while the central bank has less room for additional rate cuts, it should continue to adopt a pragmatic, flexible stance and assess future decisions on a case-by-case basis. In other news, European funds saw inflows of around $1 billion in the week ending May 28th, according to a note from Bank of America that cited EPFR Global data. In corporate news, M&G Plc (MNG.LN) climbed over +6% after reaching a deal with Dai-ichi Life Holdings, under which the Japanese insurer will acquire a 15% stake in the U.K. money manager.
Germany's Retail Sales, Spain's CPI (preliminary), Italy's GDP, and Italy's CPI (preliminary) data were released today.
The German April Retail Sales came in at -1.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
The Spanish May CPI arrived at unchanged m/m and +1.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y.
The Italian GDP has been reported at +0.3% q/q and +0.7% y/y in the first quarter, compared to expectations of +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y.
The Italian May CPI stood at unchanged m/m and +1.7% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.47%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.22%.
China's Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs weighed on sentiment. A U.S. appeals court on Thursday temporarily reinstated President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, reversing an earlier federal court decision that had ruled them illegal. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Thursday that trade negotiations with China are 'a bit stalled' and that securing a deal will likely require direct involvement from President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Shares of Apple's suppliers slumped on Friday after a U.S. court reinstated the tariffs. Also, major electric vehicle makers extended losses amid ongoing price war concerns. At the same time, bank stocks outperformed following news that People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng will attend the Lujiazui Forum's opening ceremony in Shanghai next month and unveil several major financial policies. Meanwhile, the benchmark index ended the week little changed. In other news, the Financial Times reported that China's largest technology firms have started transitioning to domestically produced chips as they grapple with a shrinking inventory of Nvidia processors and increasingly stringent U.S. export restrictions. In corporate news, Longzhou Group slid over -5% after naming Luo Zhijie as its new chief financial officer. Investors now await China's manufacturing activity data for May, set for release on Saturday, for fresh insights into the health of the economy.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today amid continued uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. Sentiment was dampened on Friday after a U.S. appeals court decision to temporarily reinstate President Donald Trump's global tariffs. Chip-related and technology stocks led the declines on Friday. Still, the benchmark index ended the week higher. Government data released on Friday showed that core inflation in Japan's capital rose to its highest level in more than two years in May due to persistent increases in food costs, indicating continued nationwide price pressures. Separate data showed that industrial production dropped in April, while retail sales grew at their quickest rate since January. The latest batch of data presented a mixed picture of accelerating inflation and weak industrial output, putting the Bank of Japan in a tough spot as it weighs future rate hikes. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the central bank is aware that companies are still raising wages and increasing prices to offset higher costs. In other news, Japan's top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that he plans to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and others for the next round of trade talks on Friday in Washington, though it remains uncertain how close the two sides are to finalizing a deal. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.50% to 23.74.
The Japanese May Tokyo Core CPI came in at +3.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.5% y/y.
The Japanese April Industrial Production (preliminary) stood at -0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of -1.4% m/m.
The Japanese April Retail Sales arrived at +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.9% y/y.
The Japanese April Unemployment Rate was 2.5%, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Dell Technologies (DELL) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after the IT giant posted better-than-expected Q1 revenue and raised its full-year profit outlook.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) slid more than -4% in pre-market trading after the specialty semiconductor company's Q1 results and Q2 guidance failed to impress investors.
Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - May 30th
Up Fintech (TIGR), Shoe Carnival (SCVL), Cresco Labs (CRLBF), Canopy Growth (CGC), Yatra Online (YTRA).