
The ‘Tumbleweed Tories' don't appear to be gripping the local elections
There is a certain mordant symbolism in the recent absence of the Conservative Party's head of strategy in the run up to this week's critical elections in England. Rachel Maclean has been away on holiday in the Himalayas even as her colleagues fret over the ramifications of an expected breakthrough by Reform and the continued threat from the Liberal Democrats.
Nigel Farage's party is expected to secure the largest proportion of the vote locally and win the by-election for the parliamentary seat of Runcorn and Helsby. The Lib Dems are hoping to take control of a swathe of councils in the Home Counties and the South West.
For Lady Maclean to take a holiday at such a time seems astonishing though it may be said there was not much she could do to influence the outcome.
The fact she has been in the Himalayas invites comments about mountains to climb but also suggests a lack of seriousness at the top of the party's organisation which Kemi Badenoch has been so anxious to shake up and professionalise.
Their opponents voice their astonishment at the hollowing out of the once great Tory party political machine. The loss of so many MPs and councillors and an exodus of members has made door-to-door campaigning harder. Lib Dems refer derisively to what they call 'the tumbleweed Tories' who have given up trying in so-called 'red wall' areas that have become a Labour-Reform fight.
This Thursday will undoubtedly be difficult for the Tories and for Labour, too. While incumbent governments are used to losing by-elections Runcorn is one of its safest seats and defeat will confirm suspicions that their general election victory last July was superficial and shallow.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Angela Rayner faces Labour backbench rebellion over her plans to build 1.5million new homes in England by 2029
could face a backbench rebellion from Labour MPs over the party's drive to build 1.5 million homes in England by 2029. The Deputy Prime Minister and Housing Secretary is fronting the Government's 'radical' overhaul of the planning system, which aims to revive housing targets for local councils and 'get Britain building again'. Its plans would require 370,000 homes to be built each year, which industry leaders claim there is 'little chance' of reaching as figures show the party is already falling short of its target by 170,000. And now, in the latest a blow to Ms Rayner's housebuilding goals, one Labour MP has threatened to trigger civil war over his demands to find a 'progressive alternative' to parts of her proposals. Labour 's Chris Hinchliff has proposed a suite of changes to the Planning and Infrastructure Bill ahead of its debate in Parliament on Monday. The North East Hertfordshire MP has suggested arming town halls with the power to block developers' housebuilding plans, if they have failed to finish their previous projects. He has also suggested housebuilding objectors should be able to appeal against green-lit large developments, if they are not on sites which a council has set aside for building. Mr Hinchliff has claimed he does not 'want to rebel' but said he would be prepared to trigger a vote over his proposals. He added his ambition was for 'a progressive alternative to our planning system and the developer-led profit-motivated model that we have at the moment'. Mr Hinchliff said: 'Frankly, to deliver the genuinely affordable housing that we need for communities like those I represent, we just have to smash that model. 'So, what I'm setting out is a set of proposals that would focus on delivering the genuinely affordable homes that we need, empowering local communities and councils to have a driving say over what happens in the local area, and also securing genuine protection for the environment going forwards.' Mr Hinchliff warned that the current system results in 'speculative' applications on land which falls outside of councils' local housebuilding strategies, 'putting significant pressure on inadequate local infrastructure'. In his constituency, which lies between London and Cambridge, 'the properties that are being built are not there to meet local need', Mr Hinchliff said, but were instead 'there to be sold for the maximum profit the developer can make'. Asked whether his proposals chimed with the first of Labour's five 'missions' at last year's general election - 'growth' - he replied: 'If we want to have the key workers that our communities need - the nurses, the social care workers, the bus drivers, the posties - they need to have genuinely affordable homes. 'You can't have that thriving economy without the workforce there, but at the moment, the housing that we are delivering is not likely to be affordable for those sorts of roles. 'It's effectively turning the towns into commuter dormitories rather than having thriving local economies, so for me, yes, it is about supporting the local economy.' Mr Hinchliff warned that the 'bottleneck' which slows housebuilding 'is not process, it's profit'. Among the proposed reforms is a power for ministers to decide which schemes should come before councillors, and which should be delegated to local authority staff, so that committees can 'focus their resources on complex or contentious development where local democratic oversight is required'. Natural England will also be able to draft 'environmental delivery plans (EDPs)' and acquire land compulsorily to bolster conservation efforts. Mr Hinchliff has suggested these EDPs must come with a timeline for their implementation, and that developers should improve the conservation status of any environmental features before causing 'damage' - a proposal which has support from at least 43 cross-party MP backers. MPs will spend two days debating the Bill on Monday and Tuesday. Chris Curtis, the Labour MP for Milton Keynes North, warned that some of Mr Hinchliff's proposals 'if enacted, would deepen our housing crisis and push more families into poverty'. He said: 'I won't stand by and watch more children in the country end up struggling in temporary accommodation to appease pressure groups. No Labour MP should. 'It's morally reprehensible to play games with this issue. These amendments should be withdrawn.' The prospect of a backbench rebellion sparks another blow to the Government's housebuilding plans just one day after a report cast doubt on whether it would be able to meet its 2029 target at all. A bleak report by the Home Builders Federation yesterday showed Labour is falling short of its target by 170,000 homes a year. Industry leaders said the data was 'disastrous' and without urgent support from ministers there is 'little chance' of reaching the goal. Just 39,170 homes were given planning permission in England in the first three months of the year – the lowest quarterly figure since records began. That was a 55 per cent drop on the previous quarter and almost 32 per cent lower than a year earlier. The 225,067 units given approval in the 12 months to the end of March was the worst performance in 12 years. The federation said its data 'starkly illustrates the urgent need for Government to address the barriers to housing supply' if they are to get 'anywhere near the much-vaunted' target.


The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Reform is a serious political force in Scotland but Tories in trouble
Formerly a seat where the SNP could be confident of winning a substantial majority, Hamilton is now a marginal seat for the first time, with a Labour majority of just 602 votes over the SNP. Reform UK is clearly on the march in Scotland, and this result bears out the surge in support for the party seen in British-wide opinion polls so far this year, with over a quarter of voters who turned out in Hamilton casting their vote for the party. Read more It would be wrong to read too much into one by-election result. By-elections are unusual events, where governments tend to lose support, people may vote in protest and turnout is typically much lower than at Holyrood elections. Nonetheless, the result in Hamilton will matter to all Scotland's parties for its symbolic importance ahead of next May's Scottish Parliament elections. For Scottish Labour, this by-election win will help to reverse the recent narrative of Labour decline. Following the party's slump in the polls over the last 10 months, the result signals that Labour can still win in Scotland and will put wind back in the party's sails. It underlines that listening to and acting on voters' concerns can help to turn the party's fortunes around – Keir Starmer's announcement of a U-turn on cuts to the winter fuel payment may well have helped the party's popularity among voters in Hamilton. The win will also give the UK Labour Party a much-needed boost, after its heavy losses in parts of England at May's local elections, losing the Runcorn by-election to Reform UK and trailing 7 points behind Reform UK in the polls UK-wide. Nigel Farage is less popular in Scotland than he is in England (Image: free) The result is a major blow to the SNP, who were widely tipped to win the seat. While incumbent governments tend to suffer at by-elections, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is the kind of central belt seat that the SNP will need to retain if it is to hold onto power in Scotland next May. This result is an early sign that that will be a tough contest. The SNP has topped recent national polls, with a double-digit lead over Scottish Labour – a remarkable position for a party that has been in power in Scotland for 18 years. This by-election will be an unwelcome reminder that voters' preferences can and do shift. While John Swinney is widely seen as having steadied the ship since his election as party leader last May – and is the least unpopular of any of the party leaders among voters – this result suggests more turbulent times may lie ahead for the SNP. Reform UK were the unknown quantity ahead of this by-election. Their performance in Hamilton, finishing less than 1,000 votes behind the SNP, proves that the party can attract significant swathes of voters north of the border as well as in England. The result emphasises that Reform UK are now a serious political force in Scotland. Ahead of the next Holyrood elections, the party has a real opportunity to paint itself as the home for voters who want change. While Nigel Farage is less popular in Scotland than he is in England, this does not appear to have been holding the party back in the polls – reflecting that the rise of Reform UK may be being driven by wider public dissatisfaction and the unpopularity of other parties more than by views of its leadership. The result signals continued gloom for the Conservatives in Scotland. While the party was widely expected to come fourth, this was a poor result for Russell Findlay's party, who managed to hang onto their deposit with 6% of the vote. Read more The pattern seen in recent Scotland polls of the Conservatives haemorrhaging voter support to Reform has been borne out at this by-election. On this evidence, the Conservatives have a mountain to climb if they are to convince Scottish voters to lend them their votes next May. Will the result in Hamilton turn out to be a sign of which way the electoral winds are blowing ahead of Holyrood elections next May? It certainly underlines that this is a time of volatility in Scottish politics and shifting voter preferences. While Anas Sarwar and his team will take heart from this win, Scottish Labour's fortunes are closely connected with those of the UK party. How Scotland's voters are feeling about the UK Government's performance under Keir Starmer's leadership is likely to be an important factor shaping voter support at the ballot box. If it is to take seats from the SNP next May, Scottish Labour needs to show those who voted for the UK party at the General Election because of issues like public services, the cost of living and inequality that they were right to do so. Emily Gray, Managing Director, Ipsos Scotland


Glasgow Times
4 hours ago
- Glasgow Times
'For urgent change that's needed, Green voices must be heard'
There are also home truths for the SNP who put a lot into this seat. They tried to be the anti-Reform vote but that didn't work. The immediate reaction of some in the party that they instead need to "hit the independence button" hits home just how little they have to fall back on from their record in government. Greens led a solid grassroots campaign which helped to build profile and support ahead of the Holyrood elections next year, where the proportional voting system means Green votes count more. There are some clear lessons emerging for how Greens need to approach that election. The SNP can't succeed as the anti-Reform vote because they are the political establishment in Scotland that those turning to Reform are hacked off with. It's their cuts to council budgets and their failure to replace the unfair council tax that is responsible for the decline people see in their neighbourhoods. It's their failure to build enough homes or to bring down outrageous rents that are driving the housing crisis. It's their U-turn on climate targets and lack of a proper green industrial strategy that is putting jobs and communities at risk. Greens can put forward a bold manifesto that responds to these things and more. That speaks to real issues facing people, not the bogeymen put forward by Reform. Urgency is vital. Where the SNP is cautious in the extreme, Greens must present a plan to deliver tangible change, quickly. Parties are often pressed on having a costed manifesto. That's important, but I think it's equally so to have a timed plan, not with vague and distant targets, but for real improvement, now. Greens have policies that resonate and are needed, but the biggest barrier we still face is being heard. The BBC Scotland Debate Night programme this week is a clear example of that. The show was a 'Glasgow Special' but it didn't include the Greens, despite being clearly the third political force in the city. Instead, alongside the SNP council leader Susan Aitken, viewers heard from the Tories, who have just one councillor left and are facing being wiped out in Holyrood next year, and shockingly from not one but two Labour representatives (though the show's producers neglected to make the political affiliation of the unelected Baron Haughey of Hutchesontown clear). It's perhaps not a surprise that the BBC won't platform Green voices which challenge the status quo, but it is a real shame. Green representatives are shaping the future of Glasgow, whether that's by working to end rip-off rents, by making our streets and public spaces safer, or by delivering new powers, like the Visitor Levy, which will raise tens of millions more for local services. Greens can deliver the radical and urgent change people want, but to do that Green voices must be heard.