Israel And Yemen's Houthis Threaten To Blockade Each Other's Ports

Forbes

a day ago

An Israeli navy missile boat patrols in the Red Sea off the coast of Israel's southern port city of ... More Eliat on December 26, 2023. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP) (Photo by ALBERTO PIZZOLI/AFP via Getty Images)
Israel attacked the major Houthi-controlled Yemeni port of Hodeidah using its naval forces for the first time on Tuesday. The Israeli defense minister warned the Houthis that it will impose a 'naval and air blockade' if it doesn't cease targeting Israel with ballistic missiles and drones. Katz's threat follows similar threats by the Yemen-based group to blockade Israeli ports. However, given the vast distances and logistical resources required to impose such blockades, are these mere empty threats?
'We warned the Houthi terror organization that if they continue to fire at Israel they will face a powerful response and enter a naval and air blockade,' warned Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday. Katz also declared that Israel's 'long arm in the air and at sea will reach everywhere.'
Israeli missile boats hit the Red Sea Yemeni port on Tuesday morning using missile boats. Hodeidah is at least 1,180 miles from Israel's southernmost port of Eilat, also on the Red Sea. Before Tuesday's unprecedented attack, Israel invariably retaliated to Houthi attacks using fighter jets to carry out long-range strikes targeting Hodeidah, Sanaa International Airport, and other ports and economic-related targets controlled by the Houthis.
The use of the warships for such a long-distance raid was notable and may signal Israel's willingness to use different tactics against the group.
Katz's mention of a naval blockade comes less than a month after the Houthis declared a 'maritime blockade' on Israel's Haifa port on the Eastern Mediterranean, warning all companies and ships that the port is on its target list.
'The Houthis lack the capability to conduct a blockade. They can only threaten episodic attacks on shipping in the hopes that it will deter shipping companies from traveling to Israel,' Bryan Clark, a naval expert at the Hudson Institute think tank, told me.
Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East security analyst at the Basha Report Risk Advisory, similarly believes that the likelihood of the Houthis successfully blockading Haifa's port remains low.
'Haifa receives its maritime traffic from the Mediterranean Sea and not the Red Sea, unlike Eilat Port (in southern Israel), which has already experienced near-closure due to repeated Houthi attacks,' Al-Basha told me.
'The Houthis do not currently possess the range or naval power to seriously affect Mediterranean shipping routes.'
On the other hand, Israel's capability to enforce a blockade against Hodeidah and other Houthi-controlled ports is markedly greater.
The most advanced warship in the Israeli Navy's surface fleet is undoubtedly its Sa'ar 6 corvette, which Al-Basha described as the 'central element' of Israel's expanding Red Sea presence.
'Earlier this week, the Sa'ar 6 reportedly launched only two missiles to strike berths at Hodeidah Port,' he said. 'Despite this limited action, the ship is capable of remaining at sea for more than a month, providing sustained offensive and defensive capabilities against Houthi targets as operations continue.'
Outfitted with long-range precision-guided missiles such as the Gabriel V sea-skimming anti-ship missile and Delilah GL cruise missile, the Sa'ar 6 can engage targets from up to 186 mile off Yemen's coast.
The small vessels also feature advanced defensive systems, including Barak 8 surface-to-air missiles and the naval version of Israel's well-known Iron Dome, the C-Dome. The corvettes can each carry an MH-60 Seahawk helicopter that can fire AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles.
During previous clashes with the Houthis, U.S. Navy destroyer often defended themselves and commercial shipping using expensive SM-3 and SM-6 air defense missiles to intercept Houthi ballistic missiles and drones. The U.S. has since ceased operations against the Houthis after reaching a ceasefire in early May, which did not stipulate that the Houthis must cease targeting Israel. Consequently, Israel has been going it alone against the group ever since with long-range airstrikes and now seaborne attacks.
'I think the threat to Israeli ships is about the same as that posed to U.S. destroyers, although the Israeli missile boats have less air defense capacity,' Clark said.
However, the smaller Israeli missile corvettes have some advantages over their much bulkier counterparts serving in the all-mighty U.S. Navy.
'Beyond tactical missions, the deployment of the Sa'ar 6 serves as a strategic signal of Israel's intent to expand their projection of power in the Red Sea,' Al-Basha said.
'Unlike a U.S. carrier strike group, which is slower and logistically complex, the Sa'ar 6 offers speed and maneuverability, making it a more elusive and survivable platform against asymmetric threats like those posed by the Houthis.'
Despite such advantages, Israel would undoubtedly find imposing even a limited blockade on Yemen significantly challenging.
'There is growing speculation that Israel may also deploy the ship to intercept suspected Iranian weapons shipments destined for the Houthis,' Al-Basha said. 'Israeli military leadership has hinted at the possibility of imposing a limited maritime blockade on Houthi-controlled ports.'
'However, enforcing a full naval blockade would be challenging due to the limited operational range of Israel's air force and navy, the high logistical and financial costs involved, and the significant threat posed by the Houthis' array of anti-ship capabilities.'
Al-Basha anticipates that Israeli commandos may board vessels Israel suspects of smuggling arms to the Houthis, which would align with Israel's broader strategy of disrupting Houthi supply lines without having to commit to a full blockade.
The Hudson Institute's Clark similarly believes that the Israeli Navy could 'sustain a force' at Yemeni ports to stop traffic and inspect vessels it suspects of arms smuggling.
'However, it would likely take most of Israel's naval forces to do it,' he said.
Aside from its Sa'ar-class corvettes on the surface, the Israeli Navy also has a fleet of German-built Dolphin-class diesel-electric submarines armed with torpedos and cruise missiles.
'Submarines could be used to attack shipping, but it is difficult for a submarine to determine if a ship is carrying humanitarian aid or weapons,' Clark said. 'Therefore, subs are unlikely to be used to be used as part of a blockade,'
Undoubtedly, Israel is much more capable of imposing a blockade on Yemeni ports than vice-versa. Nevertheless, the Houthis can credibly threaten Israel in other ways and may ultimately prove capable of harming Haifa's port.
'Looking ahead, the Houthis may attempt to escalate their campaign using advanced missile technology,' Al-Basha said. 'There are credible reports that they could deploy multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles or MIRVs on their Palestine 2 and Zulfiqar medium-range ballistic missiles.'
'A successful strike on Haifa's port infrastructure or a vessel docked in port could temporarily disrupt shipping operations and increase pressure on Israeli logistics.'
The Houthis have fired repeatedly at Israel's main airport, Ben Gurion International. While they have so far failed to directly hit the airport, a Houthi ballistic missile evaded Israeli Arrow and American THAAD air defenses hit the perimeter of the main terminal on May 4. Israel responded by heavily bombing Sanaa airport and Hodeidah.
Al-Basha noted there are fears that a 'single successful strike' by the Houthis on Ben Gurion or other critical Israeli infrastructure could 'change the strategic balance' in the group's favor. He noted the Houthis have 'already demonstrated determination and persistence' in targeting Israeli infrastructure. Furthermore, while Houthi threats to impose an aerial blockade over Tel Aviv were largely dismissed before May 4, that's certainly no longer the case.
'In May, about a quarter of international airlines canceled their flights to and from Ben Gurion due to the security risks,' Al-Basha said. 'That number may increase, especially after video footage showed a missile interception occurring dangerously close to a departing commercial airliner.'
'The conflict is entering a more volatile and unpredictable phase, and both Israel and the Houthis appear ready to escalate further if provoked.'