These strikes look like an Iranian escalation. They're likely the opposite

RNZ News

4 hours ago

By
Eric Tlozek
, ABC
Members of the Mexican Association of Islamic Women and some Iranian women march to the Iranian Embassy in Mexico City.
Photo:
GERARDO VIEYRA/NurPhoto
Analysis -
Iran has decided to retaliate to the US attack on its nuclear sites with a symbolic and overtly telegraphed strike that has caused no casualties.
Iran gave advance notice that allowed the US base to be evacuated and Qatar's air defences to be prepared, with Patriot batteries in the Gulf state shooting down the Iranian missiles.
From the outset Iran specified that it didn't attack "the brotherly nation of Qatar", only the huge US base it hosts at Al Udeid.
In that, Iran may have misjudged Qatar.
It has a very different relationship with Qatar to the near-client state dominance it had over Iraq when it tried the same tactic there in 2020.
"We affirm that Qatar reserves the right to respond directly in a manner equivalent with the nature and scale of this brazen aggression, in line with international law," Qatar's government said.
Other Gulf states were similarly angry, with Saudi Arabia placing "all of its capabilities" at Qatar's disposal.
This is a huge step for a nation that eight years ago was reportedly considering invading its small neighbour (it instead imposed a three-year blockade, along with the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt).
Qatar carefully builds alliances and influence and maintains difficult relationships, even with Israel.
It will not appreciate Iran using it as a theatre for retaliation, even a symbolic one.
Iran may have thought it was demonstrating to Gulf nations that there is a price for hosting US troops, but instead it has angered the countries that had been restoring ties and condemning the US and Israeli strikes.
However, Iran appears to have correctly read the US in choosing this option of symbolic rather than escalatory retaliation - likely because it has done it before.
In 2020 Iran struck US bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US assassination of senior general Qassem Soleimani.
Iraq was given advance warning of the strikes, the Americans were ready (although many US personnel suffered blast trauma) and the US did not strike back.
By avoiding casualties among US personnel at Al Udeid - a criteria Trump gave early in this new conflict for preventing US retaliation - Iran is hoping to signal it doesn't want further conflict with the US.
The US looks like it is going to "take the win", as former president Joe Biden once said about an earlier round of Iranian strikes against Israel.
Iran is clearly looking for an off-ramp and the US wants them to return, significantly weakened, to nuclear control negotiations.
Nothing has so far dissuaded Israel, however, which is expanding its strikes to include Iranian military and security agencies that directly support the clerical regime.
The US might say it wants the conflict to end in negotiations, without regime change, but Israel has given no sign that it is ready to stop.
- ABC