A war turned into a costly test of stamina
Three years since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the battlefield remains frozen in more ways than one. Despite billions of dollars in Western aid, thousands of lives lost, and relentless offensives, the war shows few signs of a decisive conclusion. Instead, it has evolved into a grinding war of attrition—with military breakthroughs elusive and the political will for total victory giving way to discussions on containment, ceasefire and face-saving 'off ramps'—in effect, the Americanisation of the war.
Ukraine failed to make major territorial gains through its much-anticipated counteroffensive in 2023, highlighting not just how well-entrenched the Russian forces are, but also the limits of modern Western weaponry. For Russia, despite its superior numbers and recent gains in places like Avdiivka, the advance has been incremental and costly.
Neither side currently possesses the capability to inflict a decisive blow. Ukraine lacks the strategic depth and offensive firepower to roll back Russian positions across the entire front. Meanwhile, Russia has neither the political cover nor the operational capacity to overwhelm Ukraine without incurring massive costs—both militarily and diplomatically. In short, even if militarily possible, Russia cannot justify a total war or occupation of Ukraine in a politically sustainable way.
The war has thus settled into a brutal equilibrium. Localised gains are made, but strategic momentum is absent. This military deadlock mirrors the diplomatic one. A key variable in prolonging this balance has been the sustained Western military aid to Ukraine—particularly from the US. The recent U-turn by Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled House by agreeing to support fresh aid to Ukraine marked a significant shift. For months, they had stalled arms packages and questioned the logic of endless support for Kyiv. Yet, facing mounting pressure from both Nato allies and the US defence industry, aid has been given the green light—albeit with strings attached.
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