Trump tariffs live: US stock markets set for subdued open, Trump to meet top CEOs
Recap: What happened on Monday?
5 minutes ago
09:15 EDT
Stephen Culp
U.S. stocks plunged on Monday as relentless tariff wrangling and mounting anxieties from a possible federal government shutdown gave rise to fears that the U.S. economy could be careening into recession.
The previous week's steep selloff resumed, gathering momentum as the session progressed.
All three major U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines.
The S&P 500 had its biggest one-day drop since December 18 and the tech-loaded Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022.
The S&P 500, coming off of its biggest weekly percentage drop since September, is 8.6% below its record closing high reached less than a month ago.
"It's a material drop for one day but we're seeing the normal sort of drawdown that you see in an upmarket," said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. "Concerns are mounting and investors are moving to the sidelines, but we haven't seen growth worries manifest in data yet."
09:15 EDT
Heather Timmons
Wall Street's main indexes were set for a subdued open on Tuesday following sharp losses on Wall Street in the previous session.
Global markets have been gripped by a sense of risk aversion ever since U.S. President Donald Trump triggered a tit-for-tat tariff war between the U.S. and its trade partners, which analysts have said could stoke inflationary pressures and trigger an economic slowdown.
Trump's latest tariffs, on steel and aluminum, are set to kick in at midnight in Washington (0400 GMT).
They are expected to impact billions of dollars worth of machinery, auto parts and other goods, driving up costs for US companies and consumers.
Markets plummeted Monday on worries about Trump's broader tariffs plans.
Last week's one month reprieve for most Canada and Mexico tariffs raises the question: Could Trump suspend these, too?
Trump will meet the chief executives of America's biggest companies later in the day.
We'll bring you the latest developments as we get them.
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The Guardian
2 hours ago
- The Guardian
What could Albanese do to improve productivity? Here is a short, non-exhaustive list
In his address last week at the National Press Club, the prime minister announced a 'productivity roundtable' in concert with the Productivity Commission's latest inquiry into the issue. I won't be at the round table, but I do have a few ideas. First off, remember that productivity is the amount you produce with the hours and equipment you have. Work better with what you have or (usually) get better equipment to do your work faster, and productivity increases. It is not about reducing the cost of producing things. Getting paid $10 less an hour to do the same amount of work does not increase productivity even if your employer is more profitable. Unfortunately, productivity is often confused with profit and so business groups argue the key is lower company tax. They claim this will increase investment in things that increase productivity (such as new equipment or new buildings and structures). The evidence, though, is pretty nonexistent. The massive 2017 Trump company tax cuts, for example, which cut the federal US company tax rate from as high as 35% to a flat rate of 21% did bugger all to spur investment: If the graph does not display click here Hopefully the Productivity Commission will heed the advice of the current productivity commissioner, Danielle Wood, who in 2018, wrote that cutting the company tax rate would 'see national incomes go backwards for six years'. And income is really what productivity is about – specifically workers' income and their living standards. In theory, the real value of how much you earn an hour should rise in line with productivity. In the 1990s this mostly happened, but from 2000 onwards workers have missed out: If the graph does not display click here So, when worrying about productivity, we must remember to ask who benefits. But what could the government do to improve productivity? Here is a short, non-exhaustive list. This year, the government will pay about $10bn in diesel fuel rebates to mining and transport companies and the agriculture sector. By 2028-29 it will be $13bn. Despite growing almost as fast as the NDIS, we never hear the government talk about needing to rein in the expense: If the graph does not display click here But the fuel tax credit not only encourages use of fossil fuels, it creates a disincentive to investment in more efficient, and productive new vehicles – such as electric trucks. Research and development is vital to produce new equipment and technology (such as electric trucks). But the Australian government spends much less on R&D than most other OECD governments: If the graph does not display click here The government in April extended the $20,000 instant asset write-off for small business. This was purely a political rather than economic decision. Rather than encourage investment in productivity enhancing equipment, it is mostly a tax rort to buy big utes. How do we know this? Well, last week the AFR's wealth reporter, in a column about avoiding paying tax, described the instant asset write-off as 'a favourite perk of small businesses and sole traders'. They ain't lying. What else is a bad productivity investment? Residential land. It adds bugger all. But Australians devote far too much capital to property – almost 2.5 times that of the US: If the graph does not display click here Our tax system encourages this with the 50% capital gains tax discount and negative gearing, while also reducing housing affordability. The Parliamentary Budget Office estimated that removing the tax discount and negative gearing on investment properties would raise about $13.35bn in 2025-26. Dental health hurts the economy and reduces productivity because workers avoid going to the dentist because of the cost and end up with chronic issues that reduce output. A public system would be much more productive because it would massively reduce the cost hurdle for workers. The PBO estimated that putting dental into Medicare would cost $13.7bn. Rather conveniently for us, that is essentially the same as removing the CGT discount and negative gearing. By the same token, we know health systems that are dependent on private health insurance, such as in the US, are unproductive because the resources devoted to them deliver worse outcomes than public health: If the graph does not display click here Australia's health system is generally well regarded, but a recent report noted that we faired quite poorly when it came to access to care. Private health insurance is not a productive industry – consider the hours and expense devoted to marketing that yields no extra benefit. The same goes for private schools and the fees people pay fees. A 2022 study found that private education does not improve a student's academic performance. More resources devoted to no better outcomes is the essence of poor productivity. Currently both are exempt from GST, which effectively incentivises people to spend money on them (as does allowing donations to build structures in private schools to be tax deductible). Including both within the GST would deliver revenue that could go to improving productive public schools and hospitals, while repairing the shrinking tax base of the GST. Best of all, because richer households spend more of their income on both private school and private health insurance, the tax would actually be progressive. If the graph does not display click here Controversial? Of course. Which is why a government would also want to announce something huge – like say dental in Medicare. Productivity is an ongoing issue, but the key is to always think about who benefits from changes, and that the solutions are not about increasing profits or offshoring labour or reducing workers' pay, but should always be about making people's lives better. Greg Jericho is a Guardian columnist and policy director at the Centre for Future Work
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
US crude stockpiles slump, products build, EIA says
DENVER, June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell sharply while gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels in the week ending June 13, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub (USOICC=ECI), opens new tab fell by 995,000 barrels, the EIA said. Oil futures extended losses despite EIA data showing a larger-than-expected decline in crude inventories. Brent crude was trading down $1.61 at $74.77 a barrel by 10:37 a.m. EDT (1437 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $73.39 a barrel, off $1.45. Prices had turned negative before the data release after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on the Israel-Iran conflict and said Iran wanted to negotiate. Refinery crude runs (USOICR=ECI), opens new tab fell by 364,000 barrels per day, while utilization rates (USOIRU=ECI), opens new tab fell by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 93.2% of total capacity. Gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI), opens new tab rose by 209,000 barrels in the week to 230 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with forecasts for a 627,000-barrel build. Distillate stockpiles (USOILD=ECI), opens new tab, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 514,000 barrels in the week to 109.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 440,000-barrel build, the data showed. Net U.S. crude imports (USOICI=ECI), opens new tab fell by 1.75 million bpd, the EIA said.
Times
2 hours ago
- Times
Business live blog, Wednesday June 18 — as it happened
All eyes turn the the US this afternoon, where Wall Street fully expects the Federal Reserve to again defy President Trump's demands for interest rate cuts and hold the key borrowing rate at the 4.25-4.5 per cent range. US stock index futures were muted ahead of the monetary policy decision, due at 2pm ET (7pm UK time) as investors traded cautiously amid the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Investors will focus on the 'dot plot' monetary projection and chairman Jerome Powell's comments to gauge how the Fed plans to combat the risk of rising prices, which remain a dominant concern for the central bank, even as Trump frets about the jobs market. With prospective oil price rises already seeping into monetary policy outlooks everywhere from Britain to Japan, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today rejected Trump's call for Tehran's 'unconditional surrender'. Joseph Capurso, at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: 'The markets are trying to figure out that risk of a big US military intervention. It's hard to say exactly what the market is thinking, but judging by the oil price and currencies, they're certainly pricing in at least some risk that something goes very bad there.' Money market moves show traders are pricing in about 46 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. The S&P 500 and Down Jones both opened up 0.2 per cent, with the Nasdaq up 0.3 per cent. Gold was flat a $3,390. Spain's Santander is reported by Sky News to have approached its Spanish rival Banco Sabadell, the owner of TSB, about a possible deal to buy the high street banking group. Such a move would make it the first suitor to come out of the traps since Sabadell announced it was considering offers for the 175-branch lender which it bought ten years ago for £1.7 billion. NatWest Group has also been named as a possible buyer as Sabadell attempts to bat away a hostile bid from its domestic rival BBVA. Hugo Cruz and Ban Maher, analysts for KBW Europe, wrote in a research note that it would 'make sense for Sabadell to consider its options', especially as it is the subject of a takeover approach itself. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets reckon TSB, which is based in Edinburgh and has 5 million customers, could fetch £2.6 billion. More here: Takeover talk grips UK banking Weir Group, the FTSE 100 mining engineer, is buying a US business in a £111 million deal. It said the agreement for Townley Engineering would strengthen its presence in North America. Townley, founded in 1963 and employing 360 people, makes pumps, valves, hoses and rubber linings for the mining sector. The bulk of its operations, including a foundry and various manufacturing facilities, are based in Ocala, close to the phosphate mining region of Florida. Jon Stanton, Weir's chief executive, said the deal, which is set to close in the third quarter of this year pending regulatory approvals, would reduce delivery times for customers in the US. Shares in Weir, which have gained 25 per cent in the past 12 months, dipped by 0.8 per cent on the announcement. The American software giant Adobe has taken another floor at White Collar Factory, the office block on London's Old Street roundabout that is best-known for its rooftop running track. Adobe now occupies five floors within the building totalling 67,000 sq ft — 25 per cent more than it had previously. Its rent has gone up to £4.5 million a year and it has also extended its lease to 2038. Paul Williams, chief executive of Derwent, the FTSE 250 landlord that owns White Collar Factory, said the deal further highlights the 'buoyancy of London's office market'. After a spate of downsizing in the immediate aftermath of the lockdowns, the recent trend among larger businesses has been to take more office space. Cushman & Wakefield, the property agent, analysed every office leasing deal over 5,000 sq ft in 2024 and found that of the 408 businesses that moved last year, 320 of them — 78 per cent — upsized. Chocolate prices jumped 17.7 per cent in the year to May, the biggest increase since records began in 2016, ONS inflation data showed. The rise has been blamed on the increased cost of cocoa, which has been rising after shortages due to adverse weather in west Africa, where much of the world's cocoa beans are harvested. In March, the consumer group Which?, said the price of Easter eggs made companies including Cadbury, Mars and Terry's had risen by as much as 50 per cent. Many had also shrunk in size. Speedy Hire has cautioned over 'challenging' conditions due to government spending delays, after shutting eight depots in the face of higher costs. Shares in the London-listed equipment hire firm dropped after it reported revenues fell 1.2 per cent to £416.6 million for the year to March 31, pushing the company to a full-year loss of £1.5 million, from a £5.1 million profit a year earlier. It comes after the government delayed spending on major infrastructure projects, such as Network Rail's development programme. Dan Evans, chief executive, said: 'We are focused on what we can control, and we will continue to manage our cost base and balance our investment decisions through the economic cycle.' Shares in Tullow Oil, the London-listed, west Africa-focused oil explorer, have sunk almost one-fifth after reports that merger talks have collapsed with Canadian rival Meren Energy. Sky News reported that discussions about a tie-up were progressing as recently as this month but are now understood to have been terminated. Tullow Oil was once a stock market darling with a valuation above £15 billion, but has fallen dramatically in recent years and is now worth around £275 million. Last December, it saw merger talks involving Kosmos Energy fall apart. Meren Energy, which is jointly listed in Canada and Sweden, is worth just shy of £1 billion and has announced a $500m warchest to spend on acquiring assets in Africa. PZ Cussons has sold its 50 per cent stake in PZ Wilmar, its Nigerian edible oils business, for £51 million to its joint venture partner Wilmer International. Jonathan Myers, the chief executive, said the sale would strengthen the balance sheet of the consumer goods company — its brands include Imperial Leather soap and Carex handwash — and reduce the risk associated with trading in Nigeria. It has suffered from the devaluation of the Nigerian naira. Guidance for adjusted operating profit in the year to the end of May was cut to between £52 million and £55 million from £52 million to £58 million. It follows a double-digit decline in sales at St Tropez, the self-tanning business it is trying to sell, and £2 million in costs for the extended producer responsibility levy for the recycling the household packaging they produce. The shares slid by a ½p, or 0.6 per cent, to 78p. The Raspberry Pi founder and his finance chief have not waited around to cash in more than £2 million of their shares after their lock-up agreements ended. Eben Upton, who has run the microcomputer manufacturer since founding it in 2008, and Richard Boult, the chief financial officer, were prevented from selling any of their shares for a year following last summer's initial public offering. • Would it be fruitful to invest in Raspberry Pi right now? With the 365-day lock-up period now over, Upton, 47, has sold a £1.8 million stake, while Boult, 59, has sold £455,000 of his shares. The company said it was for 'personal financial planning reasons'. Both men have kept hold of most of their shares: Upton still owns a stake worth around £11 million and Boult has shares worth just over £2 million. However, their decision to cash in has knocked Raspberry Pi shares down by 13¾p, or 3 per cent, to 444p. Read in full: Raspberry Pi founder sells shares worth £1.8m The annual rate of house price growth halved as a stamp duty holiday ended, according to provisional Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures issued this morning. The average UK house price increased by 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to April, halving from 7.0 per cent growth recorded in the 12 months to March. The average UK house price in April was £265,000. Stamp duty discounts became less generous for some home buyers from April prompting a stampede in activity as buyers sought to get ahead of the changes. Please enable cookies and other technologies to view this content. You can update your cookies preferences any time using privacy manager. While US tech giant Amazon is busy culling white-collar workers, Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, has claimed that Facebook-owner Meta is offering his employees bonuses of $100 million to recruit them. Competition for AI talent has reached fever pitch with researchers are being courted like professional athletes in the belief that individual contributors can make or break companies. Meta's Mark Zuckerberg is aiming to hire around 50 people for a new 'superintelligence' unit, almost all of whom he's recruiting personally. Earlier this week, Meta invested $14.3 billion in start-up Scale AI and hired its top boss, Alexandr Wang, to lead a new 'superintelligence' team. 'They [Meta] started making giant offers to a lot of people on our team,' Altman said on the Uncapped podcast. 'You know, like $100 million signing bonuses, more than that [in] compensation per year.' 'At least, so far, none of our best people have decided to take them up on that,' Altman said. Rollout of generative AI and agents will reduce Amazon's total corporate workforce in the next few years, Andy Jassy, the chief executive of the online retailer, said in a note to employees on Tuesday. The chief executive told staff: 'We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today.' Read in full: Amazon to cut jobs as AI takes over white-collar roles Official data suggests the UK's rate of inflation eased from 3.5 per cent in April to 3.4 per cent in May — but in reality the figure was unchanged, standing at 3.4 per cent in both months. The discrepancy follows an error made in the initial calculation of April's inflation rate, which was initially reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), on May 21 at 3.5 per cent. On June 5, the ONS issued a statement saying the figure was incorrect: data from the Department for Transport had overstated the number of vehicles subject to an increase in Vehicle Excise Duty, which in turn led to the ONS overstating April's overall rate of inflation by 0.1 percentage points. But while April's rate is now known to have been wrong, the ONS has a policy of not revising official inflation figures in subsequent publications. Which means April's inflation figure will continue to be stated by the ONS as 3.5 per cent, despite it actually being 3.4 per cent. Bank governor Andrew Bailey has warned that unreliable ONS data is leaving rate-setters 'flying blind' when they take decisions. The FTSE 100 defied ongoing conflict in the Middle East and downbeat inflation data at home to start the session in positive territory, as defence-facing stocks sustained gains and anxiety eased over international travel. London's blue chip index was up 0.25 per cent, or 21 points, to 8,855 as trading got underway. Aerospace engineers Melrose (up 3.6 per cent), Babcock (up 1.2 per cent) and Rolls-Royce (up 0.99 per cent) led the way, with British Airways owner IAG reversing several days of decline to add 1 per cent. The pound recovered some of its recent losses against the dollar as sticky inflation data all but killed the possibility of the Bank of England cutting rates cut tomorrow. Brent crude held steady at $76 a barrel, with gold losing some of its shine to trade down 0.2 per cent at $3,383.90 an ounce. 'Material disruption to Iran's production or export infrastructure would add more upward pressure to prices,' Fitch analysts said. 'However, even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers … around 5.7 million barrels a day.' There is broad consensus among economists that today's inflation figures will do little to nudge the Bank of England towards an interest rate cut at its meeting tomorrow. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that with services inflation still elevated, 'the Bank of England [will not] deviate from its recent quarterly rate-cutting path. The Bank looks nailed on to keep rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent tomorrow.' Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: 'May's headline, services and core inflation rates remain uncomfortably high alongside still troubling regular earnings growth, suggesting the monetary policy committee is unlikely to vote for a second successive rate cut at tomorrow's meeting.' Analysts think the MPC will vote 7-2 in favour of leaving rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, said that the government's 'number one mission is to put more money in the pockets of working people through our plan for change'. 'We took the necessary choices to stabilise the public finances and get inflation under control after the double-digit increases we saw under the previous government, but we know there's more to do.' Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club: 'Headline inflation is likely to edge upwards over the next few months, and the increase could be more pronounced if the recent rise in Brent crude oil prices is sustained. But we expect inflation to cool from October, as the positive contribution from the energy category wanes.' Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: 'We expect inflation to bounce around these rates for the rest of the year, averaging 3.4 per cent, and to peak at 3.6 per cent in September when base effects boost energy prices. We are yet to fully factor in higher oil prices following events in the Middle East … we would bump up the peak to 3.8 per cent if oil prices reach $80 a barrel.' For the Bank of England, the key figure in this morning's consumer price index release was the rate of services inflation, Jack Barnett writes. The ONS said services inflation fell sharply to 4.7 per cent in the twelve months to May, in line with the central bank's latest economic forecasts. That drop will provide much-needed relief for rate setters, who were concerned by April's services inflation rate of 5.4 per cent, which was well in excess of their forecasts. Elsewhere, the ONS calculated that food prices increased by 4.4 per cent over the last year, up from growth of 3.4 per cent. Food inflation is now running at its highest level since February 2024. This graph shows the downward and upward pressure on inflation in May. The ONS said the figures for transport and some higher-level aggregates were overstated in April 2025 as a result of an error in the vehicle excise duty component. Full-year profits at the electricals group AO World fell 40 per cent to £20.6 million in the 12 months to the end of March, down from £34.3 million last year as it wrote down the value of its troubled mobile business by £19.6 million. Adjusted profit before tax rose 27 per cent to £44 million, up from £34 million. Revenue over the period rose 9 per cent to £1.13 billion, from £1.03 billion. 'Performance in the mobile business has been materially behind our expectations … we continue to review our strategy in this area and will not continue to fund material losses going forward,' the company said. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, was also lower at 3.5 per cent, from 3.8 per cent in April. Services inflation has eased to 4.7 per cent from 5.4 per cent in April. Services inflation is closely watched by the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC). It is regarded as an indicator of underlying inflationary pressures and is a factor in their decisions about interest rates. The MPC is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25 per cent tomorrow. In a note to clients Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, wrote: 'May's figures were in line with the Bank of England's expectations, so today's release is unlikely to move the needle much for the Bank.' Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, said it was encouraging that both core and services inflation slowed. However, she cautioned: 'Energy prices have emerged as a key risk to the inflation outlook following the escalation in the Middle East.' The rate of growth in UK inflation dipped to 3.4 per cent in May, down for 3.5 per cent in April but well above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in CPI inflation came from transport. Richard Heys, acting chief economist at the Office for National Statistics, said air fares fell during the month compared with a large rise at the same time last year, as the timing of Easter and school holiday affected pricing. Petrol prices were also lower. He said this was partially offset by rising food prices, particularly chocolates and meat. The cost of furniture and household goods, including fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, also increased. The FTSE 100 is forecast to open 8.5 points higher when trading starts at 8am. The index of leading UK shares had its worst day in two weeks yesterday as the conflict between Israel and Iran continued. Airlines fell, while BP and Shell rose on higher oil prices. On Wall Street, President Trump's early return from the G7 leaders' summit dashed investor hopes of updates on any new trade agreements, leaving indices lower after a strong start to the week. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.77 per cent, but China's SSE Composite was flat. The pound, which was trading close to $1.36 against the dollar early yesterday, has weakened to $1.3444 but is up slightly in early trading on a weaker dollar. The oil price is trading around a near five-month high on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Brent crude futures, which rose 4 per cent on Tuesday, dipped 0.13 per cent to $76.36 a barrel, down from close to $68 a barrel during Asian trading after President Trump called for Iran's 'unconditional surrender'. Iran is the Opec's third-largest producer, pumping out around 3.3 million barrels a day of crude oil. However, analysts at Fitch said that while disruption to Iran's production or export infrastructure would add upward pressure to prices, 'even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be replaced by spare capacity from Opec+ producers … around 5.7 million barrels a day.'
