
Trump demands Iran's "unconditional surrender", warns US patience is wearing thin
Trump says whereabouts of Iranian leader Khamenei are known
Aerial attacks by both sides continue
US moves additional fighter jets to region President Donald Trump has called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" and warned that US patience is wearing thin, but said there is no intention to kill Iran's leader "for now". Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said meanwhile that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could face the same fate as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who was toppled in a US-led invasion and hanged in 2006 after a trial. Explosions were reported in Tehran and the city of Isfahan in central Iran, while Israel said Iran had fired more missiles towards it late on Tuesday, and air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and southern Israel.
Iranian officials have reported 224 people have been killed, mostly civilians, while Israel said 24 civilians had been killed. The Israeli military said it had conducted strikes on 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities in Tehran. Trump's comments, delivered via social media, suggested a more aggressive stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.
Three minutes later, he posted, "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Trump's sometimes contradictory and cryptic messaging about the conflict between close US ally Israel and longtime foe Iran has deepened the uncertainty surrounding the crisis. His public comments have ranged from military threats to diplomatic overtures, not uncommon for a president known for an often erratic approach to foreign policy. Trump said on Monday that he might send US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff or Vice President JD Vance to meet Iranian officials. The president said his early departure from the Group of Seven nations summit in Canada had "nothing to do" with working on a ceasefire deal, and that something "much bigger" was expected.
Vance said the decision on whether to take further action to end Iran's uranium enrichment program, which Western powers suspect is aimed at developing a nuclear bomb, "ultimately belongs to the president". Trump met for 90 minutes with his National Security Council on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the conflict, a White House official said. Details were not immediately available. The US is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes, three US officials told Reuters. The US has so far only taken defensive actions in the current conflict with Iran, including helping to shoot down missiles fired towards Israel. Khamenei's main military and security advisers have been killed by Israeli strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision-making process.
With Iranian leaders facing their most significant security breach since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the country's cybersecurity command has banned officials from using communications devices and mobile phones, Fars news agency reported. Israel launched a "massive cyber war" against Iran's digital infrastructure, Iranian media reported. Ever since October 7, 2023, Khamenei's regional influence has waned as Israel has pounded Iran's proxies — from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Israel launched its air war, its largest ever on Iran, on Friday after saying it had concluded the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and has pointed to its right to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment, as a party to the international Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is the only country in the Middle East believed to have nuclear weapons. Israel does not deny or confirm that.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed that he will not back down until Iran's nuclear development is disabled, while Trump says the Israeli assault could end if Iran agrees to strict curbs on enrichment. Before Israel's attack began, the 35-nation board of governors of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. The IAEA said on Tuesday an Israeli strike directly hit the underground enrichment halls at the Natanz facility. Israel says it now has control of Iranian airspace and intends to escalate the campaign in the coming days. Iran has so far fired nearly 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones towards Israel, with about 35 missiles penetrating Israel's defensive shield and making impact, Israeli officials say. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had hit Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate and foreign intelligence service Mossad's operational centre early on Tuesday.
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The founding figure of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all policies adhered to Islamic law. As Iran was a constitutional monarchy before the revolution, theocratic elements were effectively grafted on top of the existing republican ones, such as the parliament, executive and judiciary. Iran has a unicameral legislature (one house of parliament), called the Majles, and a president (currently Masoud Pezeshkian). There are regular elections for both. But while there are democratic elements within this system, in practice it is a "closed loop" that keeps the clerical elite in power and prevents challenges to the supreme leader. There is a clear hierarchy, with the supreme leader at the top. Khamenei has been in power for more than 35 years, taking office following Khomeini's death in 1989. 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Freedom House gives Iran a global freedom score of just 11 out of 100. The supreme leader also directly appoints the leaders in key governance structures, such as the judiciary, the armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely. Iranian politics is extremely factional. Ideological factions, such as the reformists, moderates and conservatives, often disagree vehemently on key policy areas. They also jockey for influence with the supreme leader and the rest of the clerical elite. None of these factions is particularly friendly with the US, and especially not Israel. There are also institutional factions. The most powerful group in the country is the clerical elite, led by the supreme leader. The next most powerful faction would be the IRGC. Originally formed as a kind of personal guard for the supreme leader, the IRGC's fighting strength now rivals that of the regular army. The IRGC is extremely hardline politically. At times, the IRGC's influence domestically has outstripped that of presidents, exerting significant pressure on their policies. The guard only vocally supports presidents in lockstep with Islamic revolutionary doctrine. In addition to its control over military hardware and its political influence, the guard is also entwined with the Iranian economy. The IRGC is heavily enriched by the status quo, with some describing it as a "kleptocratic" institution. IRGC officials are often awarded state contracts, and are allegedly involved in managing the "black economy" used to evade sanctions. Given all of this, the IRGC would be the most likely political institution to take control of Iran if the clerical elite were removed from power. In peacetime, the general consensus is the IRGC would not have the resources to orchestrate a coup if the supreme leader died. But in a time of war against a clear enemy, things could be different. So, what might happen if Israel were to assassinate the supreme leader? One scenario would be a martial law state led by the IRGC, formed at least in the short term for the purposes of protecting the revolution. In the unlikely event the entire clerical leadership is decimated, the IRGC could attempt to reform the Assembly of Experts and choose a new supreme leader itself, perhaps even supporting Khamenei's son's candidacy. Needless to say, this outcome would not lead to a state more friendly to Israel or the US. In fact, it could potentially empower a faction that has long argued for a more militant response to both. Another scenario is a popular uprising. Netanyahu certainly seems to think this is possible, saying in an interview in recent days: The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people. Indeed, many Iranians have long been disillusioned with their government — even with more moderate and reformist elements within it. Mass protests have broken out several times in recent decades — most recently in 2022 — despite heavy retaliation from law enforcement. We've seen enough revolutions to know this is possible — after all, modern Iran was formed out of one. But once again, new political leadership being more friendly to Israel and the West is not a foregone conclusion. It is possible for Iranians to hold contempt in their hearts for both their leaders and the foreign powers that would upend their lives. Andrew Thomas is a lecturer in Middle East studies at Deakin University. This piece first appeared on The Conversation.