Ukraine's big drone gamble

Politico

2 days ago

TALKING TURKEY — Russian and Ukrainian diplomats were sitting down today in Istanbul for American-brokered peace talks when the first explosions went off.
Using drones launched from disguised cargo trucks, Kyiv's special forces struck military targets deep inside Russia, blowing up billions of dollars-worth of strategic warplanes at airbases as far away as Siberia. As much as a third of the nuclear-capable bomber fleet has been damaged. Now, with President Donald Trump pushing for negotiations to end the war, the daring move could swing momentum back in favor of Ukraine.
'The operation was very timely, there's no doubt about that,' Oleg Ustenko, who served as a top advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until last year, told POLITICO Nightly. 'You could clearly see from the faces of the Russian delegation in Turkey that they are not so brave or so rude as they once were and it showed the White House and the new president what we can do.'
'Trump said we don't have the cards — this shows we do have the cards, and we can play them.'
So far, the Russians have shown no sign of living up to the White House's assessment that the Kremlin is negotiating in good faith, pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles and killing dozens of civilians. Trump has himself voiced frustration at the lack of progress, writing that Russian leader Vladimir Putin 'has gone absolutely CRAZY' and the refusal to do a deal 'will lead to the downfall of Russia!'
For the time being, that standstill looks unlikely to change. In a statement issued this evening, Moscow claimed it was ready to sign a ceasefire, but with the improbable condition that Ukraine hand over vast swathes of its territory, including major cities the Russian armed forces have never been able to occupy.
The sudden hybrid counter-offensive has left Putin with few ways to respond, according to Oleg Ignatov from Crisis Group. 'The Kremlin's options for escalation beyond its current tactic of wearing down Ukraine are limited and risky,' he said. 'For now, all eyes are on negotiations, present and future — the true targets of both Russia's and Ukraine's military operations.'
The head of the Ukrainian president's office, Andriy Yermak, said the brazen refusal to make concessions showed the Russian side is 'doing everything they can to avoid a ceasefire and continue the war.'
Now, Trump might have to roll up his sleeves and get involved to try and save the process. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today offered to hold three-way peace talks with Putin and Zelenskyy, while the White House has said Trump would be 'open' to an invitation.
Meanwhile, pro-Ukrainian Republicans are trying to nudge the White House into taking a tougher line. The same day, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Berlin to build support for new sanctions on Russia, with the pair discussing how to put 'further pressure' on Putin, including by further tightening the noose around the Kremlin's oil and gas revenues.
With the White House increasingly angry at Russia and Ukraine's allies circling the wagons, Moscow's plans to buy time seem to be leaving it more and more isolated — while the cost of its war rises and some of its most expensive military hardware burns in a Siberian field.
'If we secure a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, we want to have our allies around the table,' said Ustenko. 'The Russians will go alone — we'll be trying to build a team.'
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