
Euro cautiously flat ahead of ECB decision; EURINR futures marginally up
The euro is holding just below one-month high against the dollar on Thursday morning in Asia with much anticipation of a rate cut in todays ECB rate decision after Eurozone inflation in May fell below the ECB target of 2% for the first time since September last year. Flash data from Eurostat showed that inflation eased to 1.9% in May while core inflation that strips out prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also slowed to 2.3% from 2.7%. EURUSD pair currently holds steady above $1.1400 but stays pressured amid dollar recovery overseas following a sharp slide in the previous session amid weak US data. Markets now await Thursdays US weekly jobless claims and Fridays closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. Besides, several FOMC members due to speak later in the global day will also be watched closely. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech on the forward looking outlook and updated staff projections following decision will also be keenly awaited. On the NSE, EURINR futures pair opened at 98.20 and reduced gains thereafter to be currently trading near the days low at 98.10.

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Time of India
21 hours ago
- Time of India
Charting the global economy: ECB cuts interest rates amid global economic challenges
(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank is nearing the end of its campaign to lower interest rates after its eighth reduction in a year, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde . With the euro-zone economy suffering repeated blows from US tariffs, the deposit rate was lowered by a quarter-point to 2%. India's central bank cut interest rates as well and reduced the cash reserve ratio for banks, providing a major liquidity boost to the economy. Bank of Canada officials, meanwhile, remained sidelined but indicated they stand ready to loosen policy should the economy weaken because of US trade policy . In the US, the closely watched jobs report showed payrolls growth is moderating, rather than abruptly weakening. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: Live Events Europe Bloomberg The ECB cut its deposit rate a quarter-point to 2% — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB said inflation 'is currently at around' its target, and reiterated that it's not pre-committing to a particular path for borrowing costs. Officials said in a statement that while trade uncertainty is likely to weigh on business investment and exports, government investment in defense and infrastructure will boost growth later. Bloomberg The euro zone is set to continue its eastward expansion after Bulgaria was deemed ready to become the currency bloc's 21st member. The European Commission recommended on Wednesday that the Black Sea nation of 6.4 million should be allowed to adopt the common currency in 2026. Bloomberg The rift in Russia's two-track economy is becoming wider as businesses tied to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine thrive and the rest are struggling for resources. Massive spending on the war has left growth increasingly confined to the military-industrial complex, with the imbalance in the economy underscoring how the Kremlin is ready to continue the war, but will potentially need years to return to normalcy even if the fighting stops. Bloomberg NATO member states signed off on the military alliance's most ambitious military ramp-up since the Cold War as leaders closed in on an agreement to ratchet up spending at a summit later this month. The summit, which planners have limited to a single working session focused solely on the spending target, will also involve delicate diplomacy to win over US President Donald Trump, who has made the 5% a key demand to reduce European reliance on American military power. US Bloomberg US job growth moderated in May and the prior months were revised lower, indicating employers are cautious about growth prospects as they weigh the Trump administration's economic policy. However, the 139,000 increase in payrolls, which was slightly above expectations, helped alleviate concerns of a more-rapid deterioration in labor demand. Bloomberg The US trade deficit narrowed in April by the most on record on the largest-ever plunge in imports, illustrating an abrupt end to the massive front-loading of goods by some companies ahead of higher tariffs. Asia Bloomberg China's manufacturing sector had its worst slump since September 2022, according to a private survey, as higher tariffs took a toll on smaller exporters despite a truce in the trade war with the US. Bloomberg Thursday's offering of Japanese government bonds points to a general lack of appetite for longer-maturity debt that is afflicting markets from Japan to Europe and the US. Several auctions of longer tenor Japanese bonds in recent weeks have met shaky demand, with the market flashing a warning that authorities in Tokyo may need to reconsider their issuance plans. Bloomberg Japan's fertility rate declined in 2024 for the ninth consecutive year, reaching another historical low that underscores the immense challenge facing the government as it attempts to reverse the trend in one of the world's most aged societies. Emerging Markets Bloomberg Vietnam's exports and trade surplus rose more than expected in May, signaling companies are racing against the backdrop of talks aimed at averting the US's threatened 46% tariff. Bloomberg As leaders from Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh competed to pledge trillions of dollars for US investments during President Donald Trump's recent visit to the Middle East, bankers behind the scenes quietly agreed: Saudi Arabia isn't the draw it once was. World Bloomberg The OECD slashed its global forecasts for the second time this year, citing the impact of US tariffs. The combination of trade barriers and uncertainty are hitting confidence and holding back investment, according to the organization. Bloomberg In addition to the ECB and Bank of Canada policy meetings, Lesotho, Denmark, India and Russia lowered interest rates. Central bankers in Poland, Kazakhstan and Ukraine held the line on borrowing costs.


Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business Standard
Chinese benchmark ends marginally higher
Asian stocks ended mixed in lackluster trading on Friday despite the leaders of the U.S. and China agreeing to further talks aimed at reaching a deal. U.S. President Donald Trump described a phone call with his Chinese counterpart as "very good" and said it "resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries." Traders also reacted to a hawkish ECB rate cut and braced for a soft U.S. employment report later in the day for additional clues on the Fed's rate trajectory. Economists expect U.S. employment to increase by 130,000 jobs in May after an increase of 177,000 jobs in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2 percent. Gold prices inched higher in Asian trade and headed for a weekly gain as the U.S. dollar faced a weekly loss amid signs of economic weakness and stalled trade talks. Oil dipped but headed for its first weekly gain in three as optimism over peak seasonal demand offset lingering concerns about oversupply. China's Shanghai Composite index finished marginally higher at 3,385.36 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.48 percent to 23,792.54 as Trump's phone call left key issues unresolved.

Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business Standard
Lower net FDI due to repatriation signals mature market, says RBI governor
The sharp drop in net foreign direct investment (FDI) in FY25 was due to repatriation, which is a sign of a mature market where investors can enter and exit smoothly, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said while announcing the monetary policy decision on Friday. Net FDI flows moderated to $0.4 billion in FY25, down from $10.1 billion the previous year, data released by the RBI earlier this month showed. Gross FDI inflows remained strong, rising by around 14 per cent to $81.0 billion in 2024-25 from $71.3 billion a year earlier. 'It is germane to point out that this moderation [of net FDI] is on account of a rise in repatriation and net outward FDI while gross FDI actually increased by 14 per cent. Rise in repatriation is a sign of a mature market where foreign investors can enter and exit smoothly, while high gross FDI indicates that India continues to remain an attractive investment destination,' Malhotra said. He also said external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and non-resident deposits witnessed higher net inflows compared to the previous year. Net inflows under ECBs to India increased to $18.7 billion during 2024-25 compared with $3.6 billion a year earlier. In April 2025, net ECB to India rose to $2.8 billion from $0.5 billion a year earlier. Non-resident deposits recorded a higher net inflow of $16.2 billion in 2024-25 compared with $14.7 billion a year earlier. 'Overall, India's external sector remains resilient as key external sector vulnerability indicators continue to improve. We remain confident of meeting our external financing requirements,' he said. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) to India dropped sharply to $1.7 billion in 2024-25, as foreign portfolio investors booked profits in equities. According to the RBI's State of Economy report, more than 60 per cent of gross FDI inflows in FY25 were in manufacturing, financial services, electricity and other energy, and communication services sectors. Singapore, Mauritius, the UAE, the Netherlands and the United States accounted for more than 75 per cent of the flows. Repatriation and disinvestment by those who made direct investments in India increased to $51.5 billion in FY25 from $44.5 billion in FY24 and $29.3 billion in FY23. Overseas investments made by Indian companies (outward FDI) increased to $29.2 billion in FY25 from $16.7 billion in FY24 and $14 billion in FY23. Singapore, the US, the United Arab Emirates, Mauritius and the Netherlands together accounted for more than half of the rise in outward FDI, the report said.