Emperor penguin populations shrink by almost a quarter, researchers say

Australia Broadcast Center

10-06-2025

Emperor penguin populations in Antarctica have shrunk by almost a quarter as global warming melts their icy habitat, researchers say.
The estimated population of 16 penguin colonies — visible in satellite photos taken between 2009 and 2024 – had declined by 22 per cent.
The losses were around 50 per cent worse than even the most pessimistic estimate of current population, said Peter Fretwell, who tracks wildlife from space at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).
It's unclear whether this drop is seen across the continent, scientists said.
Researchers know that climate change is driving the losses but the speed of the declines is a particular cause for alarm.
The study compares with an earlier estimate of a nearly 10 per cent reduction across Antarctica as a whole between 2009 and 2018.
Warming is thinning and destabilising the ice under the penguins' feet in their breeding grounds.
In recent years, some colonies have lost all their chicks because the ice has given way beneath them, plunging hatchlings into the sea before they were old enough to cope with the freezing ocean.
Mr Fretwell said the new research suggests penguin numbers have been declining since the monitoring began in 2009.
He said warming is also driving other challenges for the penguins, such as higher rainfall or increasing encroachment from predators.
"Emperor penguins are probably the most clear-cut example of where climate change is really showing its effect," Fretwell told AFP.
"There's no fishing. There's no habitat destruction. There's no pollution which is causing their populations to decline.
"It's just the temperatures in the ice on which they breed and live, and that's really climate change."
Emperor penguins, number about a quarter of a million breeding pairs, all in Antarctica, according to a 2020 study.
A baby emperor penguin emerges from an egg kept warm in winter by a male, while the female in a breeding pair embarks on a two-month fishing expedition.
When she returns to the colony, she feeds the hatchling by regurgitating and then both parents take turns to forage.
To survive on their own, chicks must develop waterproof feathers, a process that typically starts in mid-December.
The new research uses satellite imagery during the months of October and November, before the region is plunged into winter darkness.
Mr Fretwell said there is hope that the penguins may go further south to colder regions in the future but added that it is not clear "how long they're going to last out there".
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Computer models have projected that the species will be near extinction by the end of the century if humans do not slash their planet-heating emissions.
The latest study suggests the picture could be even worse.
"We may have to rethink those models now with this new data," said Mr Fretwell.
But he stressed there was still time to reduce the threat to the penguins.
"We've got this really depressing picture of climate change and falling populations even faster than we thought but it's not too late," he said.
"We're probably going to lose a lot of emperor penguins along the way but if people do change, and if we do reduce or turn around our climate emissions, then then we will save the emperor penguin."